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February Medium/Long Range Thread

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman
psuhoffman

I can accept this run as an appetizer before the really good pattern sets in 

WxUSAF
WxUSAF

I like big splits and I can not lie You other weenies can’t deny When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face You get COLD!  

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Crummy AI run. Nothing much to see in MA or NE. Lot of threats off the coast again. Fugetaboutit.

Opposite of what he thought.

 I have read several mets think the flow is too progressive and systems slid by too quickly or offshore.  

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1886219484463055260

Biggest issue to me with that 11-14th time window is that your long wave trough is positive and wayyyy back to the west. You got room for systems to slide west. I think you need to wait for it to shift east. So I’m more of the 15-18th time period vs 11-14th which I think is a little fast. Just my opinion here.

 

 

 

 

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, bncho said:

Sounds like you also caved to the weenies lol

The PNA is such a huge area.. that trending from +300dm to +50dm or so, means that we can probably get snow mid Winter. -NAO I am still a little skeptical about, they might be overdoing the "no longer strong +AO" pattern of Stratosphere cooling turning into PV split.. it's still a neutral anomaly at 10mb, and historically warmings are 3:1 correlated to +time-to-the surface vs 0-time. Plus last Winter they showed so much of this pattern at days 10-15+, I think the fundamentals of -PDO and Weak Nina, although obviously weak this Winter so far, might still creep up there at the end. They may say the surface of PDO is neutral, but it's still strong -PDO in the subsurface/thermocline.  Hopefully the 500mb pattern projected by models holds going forward, I actually hate -PNA in the Winter. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, frd said:

Opposite of what he thought.

 I have read several mets think the flow is too progressive and systems slid by too quickly or offshore.  

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1886219484463055260

Biggest issue to me with that 11-14th time window is that your long wave trough is positive and wayyyy back to the west. You got room for systems to slide west. I think you need to wait for it to shift east. So I’m more of the 15-18th time period vs 11-14th which I think is a little fast. Just my opinion here.

 

 

 

 

Never heard of Mike Thomas, so no idea if his "opinion" is worth anything.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Never heard of Mike Thomas, so no idea if his "opinion" is worth anything.

He is a met, but posted it because he thought things would be West in that time frame , as in ( slide to our West ) and then you posted AI goes offshore.   

Great potential next 30 days I believe, but its going to take a little more time to target our first legit threat. Observing the HL and the PV is fascinating though,  and how it all plays a role with the upcoming favorable indices.  

 

 

 

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, frd said:

Opposite of what he thought.

 I have read several mets think the flow is too progressive and systems slid by too quickly or offshore.  

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1886219484463055260

Biggest issue to me with that 11-14th time window is that your long wave trough is positive and wayyyy back to the west. You got room for systems to slide west. I think you need to wait for it to shift east. So I’m more of the 15-18th time period vs 11-14th which I think is a little fast. Just my opinion here.

 

 

 

 

Isn't he the one who posted a graphic saying a blizzard was gonna hit dc back in mid jan?

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cool to see this threat continue to get colder across 'most' guidance. Guess your "no snow for the next 15 days" call is in jeopardy? 

I'm not expecting any more than a dusting on the front edge.. in PA you might do 1". 850mb temps warm up real quickly though.. accumulating snow is mostly dependent on precip making it in real early Wednesday 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm not expecting anymore than a dusting on the front edge.. in PA you might do 1". 850mb temps warm up real quickly though.. accumulating snow is mostly dependent on precip making it in real early Wednesday 

Up to .3" snow here tonight fwiw. Nice 'mild' period we're in.

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did you do with chuck 

It was a big model shift at 500mb in the Pacific. In the Day 10+, I rarely see ensemble means going over +300dm (which is what it was showing in the Aleutian island/PNA region). That coupled, with what I believe is still a strong -PDO in the thermocline and negative ENSO subsurface, showing at least Weak Nina conditions, plus a record streak of 7-years of February -PNA, and I thought that was a good forecast going forward.. It seems the pattern we saw in Dec/Jan ends up having some staying power. Now models backed way off the -PNA ridge in the N. Pacific, but I wouldn't totally discount a trend back toward this in the coming days. It's actually very sensitive because the potential +precip pattern is currently projected to be very close to rain or snow in the Mid-Atlantic... if we see a resurgence of the -PNA the storms will go north and we'll get rain, if the EPS continues to lead they way and we have neutral PNA H5 anomalies and more -EPO, then we might be able to get some snow out of it. I'm still more excited about the wintery threat at our doorstep than the LR models right now. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It was a big model shift at 500mb in the Pacific. In the Day 10+, I rarely see ensemble means going over +300dm (which is what it was showing in the Aleutian island/PNA region). That coupled, with what I believe is still a strong -PDO in the thermocline and negative ENSO subsurface, showing at least Weak Nina conditions, plus a record streak of 7-years of February -PNA, and I thought that was a good forecast going forward.. It seems the pattern we saw in Dec/Jan ends up having some staying power. Now models backed way off the -PNA ridge in the N. Pacific, but I wouldn't totally discount a trend back toward this in the coming days. It's actually very sensitive because the +precip pattern is currently projected to be very close to rain or snow in the Mid-Atlantic... if we see a resurgence of the -PNA the storms will go north and we'll get rain, if the EPS continues to lead they way and we have neutral PNA H5 anomalies and more -EPO, then we might be able to get some snow out of it. I'm still more excited about the wintery threat at our doorstep than the LR models right now. 

I do think the LR (Feb 12+) looks beyond promising. But I again sort of agree with you....how many times have we been drooling at LR ens stuff but overlooking threats in the mid range only to have the short and mid range events produce and the LR stuff fizzle? Not suggesting that, but it is funny seeing most eyes on the mid month presentation with a potential impactful event on our doorsteps. 

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted

Starting to see some comparisons to the Feb 2018 SSWE which apparently was rather sudden and unexpected.  At this point though, do we really want a SSWE?  Seems like things are coming together nicely with a split PV with a piece trapped on our side.  SSWE's are like throwing a grenade in the pattern and hoping for the best.

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Starting to see some comparisons to the Feb 2018 SSWE which apparently was rather sudden and unexpected.  At this point though, do we really want a SSWE?  Seems like things are coming together nicely with a split PV with a piece trapped on our side.  SSWE's are like throwing a grenade in the pattern and hoping for the best.

SSWE occurring in 15 days would actually have the greatest effects on early March, -NAO. I get what you're saying though.. 

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