mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, frd said: Opposite of what he thought. I have read several mets think the flow is too progressive and systems slid by too quickly or offshore. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1886219484463055260 Biggest issue to me with that 11-14th time window is that your long wave trough is positive and wayyyy back to the west. You got room for systems to slide west. I think you need to wait for it to shift east. So I’m more of the 15-18th time period vs 11-14th which I think is a little fast. Just my opinion here. Never heard of Mike Thomas, so no idea if his "opinion" is worth anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Never heard of Mike Thomas, so no idea if his "opinion" is worth anything. He is a met, but posted it because he thought things would be West in that time frame , as in ( slide to our West ) and then you posted AI goes offshore. Great potential next 30 days I believe, but its going to take a little more time to target our first legit threat. Observing the HL and the PV is fascinating though, and how it all plays a role with the upcoming favorable indices. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Crummy AI run. Nothing much to see in MA or NE. Lot of threats off the coast again. Fugetaboutit. If the AI is trained on recent winters, then that would explain the lack of digital snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 53 minutes ago, frd said: Opposite of what he thought. I have read several mets think the flow is too progressive and systems slid by too quickly or offshore. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1886219484463055260 Biggest issue to me with that 11-14th time window is that your long wave trough is positive and wayyyy back to the west. You got room for systems to slide west. I think you need to wait for it to shift east. So I’m more of the 15-18th time period vs 11-14th which I think is a little fast. Just my opinion here. Isn't he the one who posted a graphic saying a blizzard was gonna hit dc back in mid jan? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Isn't he the one who posted a graphic saying a blizzard was gonna hit dc back in mid jan? I have to do a fact check, not sure. That might be the other guy who is a bigger hypster than JB, he names starts with a M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 0z NAM has 1-2" Wednesday for Cecil County and southern PA.. it also looks like a legit ice threat for northern MD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 0z NAM has 1-2" Wednesday for Cecil County and southern PA.. it also looks like a legit ice threat for northern MD Cool to see this threat continue to get colder across 'most' guidance. Guess your "no snow for the next 15 days" call is in jeopardy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cool to see this threat continue to get colder across 'most' guidance. Guess your "no snow for the next 15 days" call is in jeopardy? I'm not expecting any more than a dusting on the front edge.. in PA you might do 1". 850mb temps warm up real quickly though.. accumulating snow is mostly dependent on precip making it in real early Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm not expecting anymore than a dusting on the front edge.. in PA you might do 1". 850mb temps warm up real quickly though.. accumulating snow is mostly dependent on precip making it in real early Wednesday Up to .3" snow here tonight fwiw. Nice 'mild' period we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Up to .3" snow here tonight fwiw. Nice 'mild' period we're in. -EPO/+NAO is the pattern.. Pacific has stronger input with our warm/cold temps. -EPO in mid-Winter can do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: -EPO/+NAO is the pattern.. Pacific has stronger input with our warm/cold temps. -EPO in mid-Winter can do it! What did you do with chuck 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What did you do with chuck It was a big model shift at 500mb in the Pacific. In the Day 10+, I rarely see ensemble means going over +300dm (which is what it was showing in the Aleutian island/PNA region). That coupled, with what I believe is still a strong -PDO in the thermocline and negative ENSO subsurface, showing at least Weak Nina conditions, plus a record streak of 7-years of February -PNA, and I thought that was a good forecast going forward.. It seems the pattern we saw in Dec/Jan ends up having some staying power. Now models backed way off the -PNA ridge in the N. Pacific, but I wouldn't totally discount a trend back toward this in the coming days. It's actually very sensitive because the potential +precip pattern is currently projected to be very close to rain or snow in the Mid-Atlantic... if we see a resurgence of the -PNA the storms will go north and we'll get rain, if the EPS continues to lead they way and we have neutral PNA H5 anomalies and more -EPO, then we might be able to get some snow out of it. I'm still more excited about the wintery threat at our doorstep than the LR models right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What did you do with chuck That isn't Chuck; it's his alter ego Charles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It was a big model shift at 500mb in the Pacific. In the Day 10+, I rarely see ensemble means going over +300dm (which is what it was showing in the Aleutian island/PNA region). That coupled, with what I believe is still a strong -PDO in the thermocline and negative ENSO subsurface, showing at least Weak Nina conditions, plus a record streak of 7-years of February -PNA, and I thought that was a good forecast going forward.. It seems the pattern we saw in Dec/Jan ends up having some staying power. Now models backed way off the -PNA ridge in the N. Pacific, but I wouldn't totally discount a trend back toward this in the coming days. It's actually very sensitive because the +precip pattern is currently projected to be very close to rain or snow in the Mid-Atlantic... if we see a resurgence of the -PNA the storms will go north and we'll get rain, if the EPS continues to lead they way and we have neutral PNA H5 anomalies and more -EPO, then we might be able to get some snow out of it. I'm still more excited about the wintery threat at our doorstep than the LR models right now. I do think the LR (Feb 12+) looks beyond promising. But I again sort of agree with you....how many times have we been drooling at LR ens stuff but overlooking threats in the mid range only to have the short and mid range events produce and the LR stuff fizzle? Not suggesting that, but it is funny seeing most eyes on the mid month presentation with a potential impactful event on our doorsteps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 This coming week seems like an appetizer compared to the possibilities from day 8 onward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 36 minutes ago, frd said: I have to do a fact check, not sure. That might be the other guy who is a bigger hypster than JB, he names starts with a M. Yes I do beleive your right!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Margarbage? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, frd said: I have to do a fact check, not sure. That might be the other guy who is a bigger hypster than JB, he names starts with a M. Mike masco?? Or something like that .. maybe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The 0z runs are gonna be the most important so far this winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, 87storms said: The 0z runs are gonna be the most important so far this winter. Agreed!! Lots of promise in the 8 ro 15 day range!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, 87storms said: The 0z runs are gonna be the most important so far this winter. how many times have we said that this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 how many times have we said that this winterWe’re in peak climo…it’s go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 PSU land and us northern folk may have a situation on our hands after seeing what the first couple 0z JV models have. NAM, RGEM, and ICON all quite icy…rgem is a disaster for N MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Starting to see some comparisons to the Feb 2018 SSWE which apparently was rather sudden and unexpected. At this point though, do we really want a SSWE? Seems like things are coming together nicely with a split PV with a piece trapped on our side. SSWE's are like throwing a grenade in the pattern and hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: rgem is a disaster FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 10 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Starting to see some comparisons to the Feb 2018 SSWE which apparently was rather sudden and unexpected. At this point though, do we really want a SSWE? Seems like things are coming together nicely with a split PV with a piece trapped on our side. SSWE's are like throwing a grenade in the pattern and hoping for the best. SSWE occurring in 15 days would actually have the greatest effects on early March, -NAO. I get what you're saying though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 00z GFS even souther and more diffuse - gonna be a different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GFS even souther and more diffuse - gonna be a different outcome. Mixed precip moves in in earnest around 1am - earlier runs today had stuff in the area closer to noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mixed precip moves in in earnest around 1am - earlier runs today had stuff in the area closer to noon Ice goes further south, colder, probably more impactful since it’s overnight. Maybe a little lighter on the precip totals but made up for by chill/timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Wow big ice storm for MD on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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