February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

It probably changes tonight but the eps went towards the gefs after the 10th 

Gefs MJO forecast ain't great and everything is moving toward it unfortunately. Weeklies yesterday were AN on the Euro site all of February and I'd be surprised if it changed today, which is out any minute. 

[RedSky]

45 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pattern's probably underestimated right now for how warm it can get here. 

Can I plant the peas and corn in mid February Chuck?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Can I plant the peas and corn in mid February Chuck?

Trend has been really strong for the last 7 years that we have a Feb-March -PNA. At the flip of the month, it's doing it again this year. Late blooming La Nina also enhances the SE ridge probability late Winter, and +QBO has been helping 10mb stay very cold this Winter, disallowing Stratosphere warmings. For the last few years, our cold late Winter has come from Stratosphere warmings, but that is looking less likely to occur this year. I would say we veer toward a -PNA/SE ridge pattern through March, but the 2-month period of cold late November through mid January was really uniform and solid.. those type of patterns usually come back at some point later in the Winter. So a bit of a conflicting forces.. I'd probably go with slightly above average late Feb through March, +EPO being less likely and a Winter trend of -EPO/-WPO probably means that I would wait until April to plant. 

[IronTy]

Chuck hath spoken.  It's over.  

[Ji]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It probably changes tonight but the eps went towards the gefs after the 10th 

i dont really see anything that shows the eps looking like the GEFS

[Weather Will]

WB EPS extended control the next 46 days....sold.  Extended EPS not bad either.  Patience.... we won't know for a couple weeks. Need to get the MJO into phase 8.... 

[Weather Will]

GEFS MJO has some members with major forcing in phase 6.   If those members are correct, it is over, so watching that the next week for trends.  I agree that MJO is not the only variable but if it is that strong into 6 its lights out.

[WEATHER53]

Where was the MJO during our recent very cold with snow pattern?

Thanks  

[Ji]

Where was the MJO during our recent very cold with snow pattern?
Thanks  

8 1 2

[cbmclean]

As Weather Will noted, GEF apesh!t SER likely stems from explosive intensification of the MJO into Phase 6 with one member bursting through the roof and apparently causing the world to incinerate.  The EPS is much more restrained with a general prediction of progression through 6 into 7.  We really want to get back to 8 to tart feeling better.

[Weather Will]

WB EPS teleconnections next two weeks are meh, so again patience.

 

[cbmclean]

I will also note that not all of the GEFS members are that explosive into 6, with a sizeable number looking like the Euro.  I wonder if the ensemble mean is being significantly skewed by the camp which is predicting explosion. 

[mitchnick]

This is the Eps extended MJO forecast just out at 3pm. The mean is almost dead centered in the COD. Probably best case, but that's, as I said, a mean. If you look at the green dots that represent the end of the forecast, they are all over the place. So not much comfort in what exactly we should expect...except maybe the worse? Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501280000

[JenkinsJinkies]

You know, if some of these posters wind up being right and it’s indeed over then it’s really gonna sting, solely because of the fact that New Orleans got more snow than the metros. If next year is a wall to wall snowless torch like 16-17 or 22-23 the it’ll sting even more in retrospect.

This also means that the weenies will be downright insufferable, an absolute tsunami of butthurt. You know what though? Should that come to pass I think they’ve earned it, when you get screwed over that hard you should have the right to be upset about it.

Our “turn” can’t come soon enough.

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS extended control the next 46 days....sold.  Extended EPS not bad either.  Patience.... we won't know for a couple weeks. Need to get the MJO into phase 8.... 

Not sure why you post control runs. In the case of the extended product, it  is 1 of 101 members in the ensemble. Why would it have any value at all over a 46 day period by itself?

[CAPE]

The Control in an ensemble serves as an unperturbed 'reference' for the perturbed members. It really has no more value by itself than any other single member.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

i dont really see anything that shows the eps looking like the GEFS

 

[mitchnick]

Strong Nina trades are killing us.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Still normal to below normal surface temps there, and op and ens guidance are currently hinting at some wintry potential in the 6-10th window. Ultimately maybe the pattern goes to crap around D15, but something good might happen just before that.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still normal to below normal surface temps there, and op and ens guidance are currently hinting at some wintry potential in the 6-10th window. Ultimately maybe the pattern goes to crap around D15, but something good might happen just before that.

 

Weren't things supposed to become more favorable by D+15 or so, i.e., mid-February or so, into March?  Whereas up to that point we are looking at an unfavorable regime as the MJO traverses the warmer phases.  That's what a lot of prior discussion was hinting at as I recall.  Though maybe that thinking has changed now.

Sorry to sound a bit negative, but not that long ago there was a lot of "har har har, a (relatively) short warmup and people are canceling winter when the indications are cold after that" talk.

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Weren't things supposed to become more favorable by D+15 or so, i.e., mid-February or so, into March?  Whereas up to that point we are looking at an unfavorable regime as the MJO traverses the warmer phases.  That's what a lot of prior discussion was hinting at as I recall.  Though maybe that thinking has changed now.

Sorry to sound a bit negative, but not that long ago there was a lot of "har har har, a (relatively) short warmup and people are canceling winter when the indications are cold after that" talk.

I think we jinxed it lol.

The reason why we got the January cold was because we were so pessimistic about it. "February 2024 incoming" and all that but it turned out to be good. Now once we're optimistic about a short warmup then it all goes to shit and it looks bad.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Weren't things supposed to become more favorable by D+15 or so, i.e., mid-February or so, into March?  Whereas up to that point we are looking at an unfavorable regime as the MJO traverses the warmer phases.  That's what a lot of prior discussion was hinting at as I recall.  Though maybe that thinking has changed now.

Sorry to sound a bit negative, but not that long ago there was a lot of "har har har, a (relatively) short warmup and people are canceling winter when the indications are cold after that" talk.

CWG has a “there’s still a chance mid month” article. But I’ve seen this before and it’s almost always been a bust, whenever they do this it always has that “here’s how Bernie can still win” energy.

https://archive.ph/aBZsc

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Weren't things supposed to become more favorable by D+15 or so, i.e., mid-February or so, into March?  Whereas up to that point we are looking at an unfavorable regime as the MJO traverses the warmer phases.  That's what a lot of prior discussion was hinting at as I recall.  Though maybe that thinking has changed now.

Sorry to sound a bit negative, but not that long ago there was a lot of "har har har, a (relatively) short warmup and people are canceling winter when the indications are cold after that" talk.

We all rely on guidance mostly, and frankly it's all subject to change esp beyond day 10. Things that were 'supposed' to occur at one point, a few days later might look quite different, more so when we are clearly moving out of what was a sustained pattern to something else. Models sometimes struggle with where exactly it goes going forward. In this case the volatility its mostly related to uncertainty with Nina induced forcing in the tropics. This sort of thing causes the mood in the LR thread to often resemble a sine wave lol.

[TowsonTownT]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You know, if some of these posters wind up being right and it’s indeed over then it’s really gonna sting, solely because of the fact that New Orleans got more snow than the metros. If next year is a wall to wall snowless torch like 16-17 or 22-23 the it’ll sting even more in retrospect.

This also means that the weenies will be downright insufferable, an absolute tsunami of butthurt. You know what though? Should that come to pass I think they’ve earned it, when you get screwed over that hard you should have the right to be upset about it.

Our “turn” can’t come soon enough.

I've had snow on the ground in my Towson backyard since the 6th and the garbage trucks still won't go down the alley due to a 2" layer of stubborn ice. This year is not a bust for me.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We all rely on guidance mostly, and frankly it's all subject to change esp beyond day 10. Things that were 'supposed' to occur at one point, a few days later might look quite different, more so when we are clearly moving out of what was a sustained pattern to something else. Models sometimes struggle with where exactly it goes going forward. In this case the volatility its mostly related to uncertainty with Nina induced forcing in the tropics. This sort of thing causes the mood in the LR thread to often resemble a sine wave lol.

You're correct, and that's all true.  Apologies if I sounded a bit bitter, but I'm sure we're all a bit frustrated.  When I take a step back, I really don't think we're done for this winter, but we cannot expect some epic 3 week period either.  I strongly feel we'll get one more good event whether it's later in February or first part of March.  Unfortunately this thread always goes through wide-ranging mood swings with damn near every model run as you imply (definitely a sine wave!!!).  I guess we'll see what happens, but some of these definitive statements based on MJO outlooks way out around 2 weeks should be taken with a grain of salt.  Not saying you do that, but too many focus on every single day's forecast.  Not just the MJO, but the Euro weeklies every day, etc.  I almost get whiplash in some of the ongoing discussion, LOL!!!  I mean, it was just last year that around this time (or a bit earlier) we were all ga-ga drooling over some epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies and long-range ensembles that was supposed to occur for much of February.  And that went to pot in almost no time once it got within 10 days.  Similarly, I recall a couple or so years ago the MJO forecast had us going through 7-8-1 at very high amplitude, the anticipation was palpable, and...nothing.  I don't remember if those forecasts changed or if there were other factors that simply overwhelmed it, but it doesn't matter.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said:

I've had snow on the ground in my Towson backyard since the 6th and the garbage trucks still won't go down the alley due to a 2" layer of stubborn ice. This year is not a bust for me.

Snow and ice slowly melting on my stone driveway in areas that that don't get much sun, combined with some thawing but still frozen ground underneath, is making a rutty mess. All despite being in a severe drought here lol. Winter is just different.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

This is the Eps extended MJO forecast just out at 3pm. The mean is almost dead centered in the COD. Probably best case, but that's, as I said, a mean. If you look at the green dots that represent the end of the forecast, they are all over the place. So not much comfort in what exactly we should expect...except maybe the worse? Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501280000

Pretty strong cluster into the COD. I dont doubt that we torch next week. And possibly the week after. I am not giving up on the end of February though. 

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said:

I've had snow on the ground in my Towson backyard since the 6th and the garbage trucks still won't go down the alley due to a 2" layer of stubborn ice. This year is not a bust for me.

Me too. I have had snow cover since January 3rd. And still have almost 3 inches in the shade behind my house. And still 3 foot snow piles at the end of my driveway. Nothing wrong with this winter so far at all. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

LR GFS, but at least we know it's not a snowy pattern: >5800dm south of the Aleutian islands (-PNA) and 4700s dm over the Baffin Island (+NAO). >5700dms going north of Chicago. Day 15-16, but that's quite a pattern. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, TowsonTownT said:

I've had snow on the ground in my Towson backyard since the 6th and the garbage trucks still won't go down the alley due to a 2" layer of stubborn ice. This year is not a bust for me.

I’d be on the same page as you if the Deep South didn’t get more snow than us.