February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Heisy]

I personally think the March 4-10 time frame has a chance to produce. As long as the -EPO has formed like the ensembles showing by then the tpv is farther SE. just depends if we get hurt by -PNA or not


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[dailylurker]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No.  My spirit is tho and that fucker is traumatized and deflated.

Come out to the lowlands and do a hike with me this weekend. Fresh air and garden herb will help! 

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Welcome to team doom friend.

No, team observation.  Lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I personally think the March 4-10 time frame has a chance to produce. As long as the -EPO has formed like the ensembles showing by then the tpv is farther SE. just depends if we get hurt by -PNA or not


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That would be the last period for sure IF it's going to happen.

[Chris78]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

De-amp wont work though...yea it might get the storm under us but we have a crappy antecedent airmass...the only path to snow is a bomb really.  We need a sub 990 low at our latitude probably for this to work...which is another way of saying its probably not going to work...but the win would be the GGEM but have it bomb out a little faster/further south.  

I am not as worried about suppressed with this wave, there is no mechanism to suppress it other than if the wave just washes out and ends up really weak but then who cares its not a snow for anyone.  

Isn't this far enough out that it could be overall colder and work with  a  weaker wave under us? I'm just thinking about all the changes we've seen inside of 5 days. We're still 8 days out

Edit: for DC and Baltimore you'd need atleast 5 degrees or so on the GFS to make it interesting but it's close for the NW burbs

[anotherman]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

just depends if we get hurt by -PNA or not

-PNA

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Isn't this far enough out that it could be overall colder and work with  a  weaker wave under us? I'm just thinking about all the changes we've seen inside of 5 days. We're still 8 days out

Could maybe... but a colder airmass will also require a more amplified wave to get to our latitude also, think back to the GFS runs the other day with a colder press from the TPV and a stronger wave giving us 12" lol.  A weaker wave in that paradigm would slide to our south because the boundary is further south and a weak wave wont press the boundary north.  What we want...is to get the thermal boundary south of us....down to like NC border...then have a strong wave as the boundary lifts back north.  

[TSSN+]

45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No.  My spirit is tho and that fucker is traumatized and deflated.

I mean Jesus did serve you the other night, the Holy Ghost is up next. 

[Heisy]

That would be the last period for sure IF it's going to happen.

HM is in general agreement with me, pretty much echoed my thoughts.

Here is 12z euro right before the time frame I’m talking about, you have cold flow over us, just gotta see if any wave can take advantage?




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[Heisy]

…and then at end of the run you have this general look which could work




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[Allsnow]

Take us home @Heisy

[adelphi_sky]

If these models show the same storm for me inside 2 hours, I'm in!

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

it's all rain....

it does go nuculear off NJ and give NYC a blizzard though so yay for them 

It won't look like that in a week

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

It won't look like that in a week

You mean it won’t look like that next model run. 

[winter_warlock]

After the models did a complete 180 with   yesterday's and today's storm I don't belive anything the models say beyond 2 days out

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

After the models did a complete 180 with   yesterday's and today's storm I don't belive anything the models say beyond 2 days out

My bar is 2 hours. 

[csnavywx]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I know it doesn't feel like it now, but the fact that all the southern areas cashing in at least puts to bed the theory that snowstorm tracks are moving further north and cutting us out. We're still good. If anything, we lost maybe 15-20% of our usual snow climo in the long term. Like Bob Chill, I have a feeling that the next 5-10 winters will be more closer to climo compared to the last 8 years and include at least one big dog, maybe two. 

I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.

[Scraff]

40 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

My bar is 2 hours. 

How ironic. I’m about to walk into a bar for 2 hours. 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

I think at least some of this is being driven by rapid NPac and NAtl warming, driving +height tendencies there and a transient -height tendency over the continent. It was more confined to the Feb-May timeframe over the northern CONUS in the '10s, primarily in response to the north Pacific, but we may see that expand given how quickly both oceans have warmed.

That does make a lot of sense when I think about it. And when we look at ocean warming in terms of absolute temperature instead of anomalies, it's easy to see how mid-latitude jets over both oceans would become anomalously strong as we've seen in recent years.

[Heisy]

Take us home [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention]

I mean it’s basically now or never for this winter for that period. I’m out on anything before that (like the cmc BS run)

Mitch any euro Ai fun?


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[ravensrule]

24 minutes ago, Scraff said:

How ironic. I’m about to walk into a bar for 2 hours. 

SHOCKING. 

[Ji]

I mean it’s basically now or never for this winter for that period. I’m out on anything before that (like the cmc BS run)

Mitch any euro Ai fun?


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Actually has a major nor’easter but too warm

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I mean it’s basically now or never for this winter for that period. I’m out on anything before that (like the cmc BS run)

Mitch any euro Ai fun?


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Same crap except it ends looking like the ensembles with that big bubble of cold heading south. There's a trough out west that in theory if it came east at the right spot would work, but too early to even guess.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Actually has a major nor’easter but too warm

That's been there for days to rub it in.

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That does make a lot of sense when I think about it. And when we look at ocean warming in terms of absolute temperature instead of anomalies, it's easy to see how mid-latitude jets over both oceans would become anomalously strong as we've seen in recent years.

With the latitudinal temperature gradient shrinking as the poles warm how are the jets getting stronger?  That is what I can't understand.

[Heisy]

Same crap except it ends looking like the ensembles with that big bubble of cold heading south. There's a trough out west that in theory if it came east at the right spot would work, but too early to even guess.

That’s my time frame lock it up


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[Ji]

That's been there for days to rub it in.

It got delayed a few days

[psuhoffman]

I am almost sure I am going to see plenty of more snow....

 

 

because I'll be in Vermont 4 of the next 6 weekends 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s my time frame lock it up


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Here it is. Plenty cold over the country. Here's an 850 map. Notice a reinforcing shot of cold in Canada too.

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

With the latitudinal temperature gradient shrinking as the poles warm how are the jets getting stronger?  That is what I can't understand.

This is a great question. I think this is more true in the warm seasons as the poles warm much more relatively. But in the cold season, the poles are still cold even if anomalously warm, while extratropical latitudes stay summer-like warm (with all those 580-590+ dm ridges being more commonplace) - it's easy to imagine that the lat temp gradient gets even more compressed in the mid-latitudes. Granted it's not always the case everywhere, but I think it's becoming more common.