February Medium/Long Range Thread

[bncho]

Just now, BristowWx said:

it is hard to keep up the enthusiasm.  wishing doesn't work either.  it'll snow again however 

it'll either snow on the 28th or the 28th (of December 2025)

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I am. Just a bunch of head fakes like the majority of this winter lol. 50” digital snow, 0” to show for it probably. 

Probably but I think what's coming is being underestimated. Not in a big snow way because guessing that is impossible. All guidance is congealing on a version of the "big bowl". If you can't have a gnarly 50/50 or am effective-NAO, the Big bowl is the next best thing for suppressed flow without elevator up and down amplification (one of my least favorite patterns for snow). Progressive up and down produces big storms but they are narrow, fragile, and widely spaced. Miss one and you might be done lol. I'm prob a minority where I'll gladly trade a one and done big storm pattern for an extended active pattern. What I want doesn't mean shit but i like what i see today even better than the last couple. This is an active pattern with cold over the entire continent  

 

 

[dailylurker]

Bob Chill storm! PSU swung and missed. The bat actually flew out of his hand and hit someone's grandma in the teeth. Next up! Bob Chill! Lol

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Bob Chill storm! PSU swung and missed. The bat actually flew out of his hand and hit someone's grandma in the teeth. Next up! Bob Chill! Lol

Lol. I'm one and done there. I think it's been 10 years. I don't call individual storms. Ruins the fun of the track and makes me biased when I shouldn't be. 

[snowmagnet]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably but I think what's coming is being underestimated. Not in a big snow way because guessing that is impossible. All guidance is congealing on a version of the "big bowl". If you can't have a gnarly 50/50 or am effective-NAO, the Big bowl is the next best thing for suppressed flow without elevator up and down amplification (one of my least favorite patterns for snow). Progressive up and down produces big storms but they are narrow, fragile, and widely spaced. Miss one and you might be done lol. I'm prob a minority where I'll gladly trade a one and done big storm pattern for an extended active pattern. What I want doesn't mean shit but i like what i see today even better than the last couple. This is an active pattern with cold over the entire continent  

 

 

Bob has spoken. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Bob Chill storm! PSU swung and missed. The bat actually flew out of his hand and hit someone's grandma in the teeth. Next up! Bob Chill! Lol

Dying.  Lol

Literally choked on my coffee.

[stormtracker]

59 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I am. Just a bunch of head fakes like the majority of this winter lol. 50” digital snow, 0” to show for it probably. 

High five 

[bncho]

On 2/14/2025 at 1:07 PM, RedSky said:

The March 2001 level hype hits the media this evening 

[Heisy]

One Difference between gfs and euro is that placement of the TPV by day 6 or so. GFS is farther SE. would like to see the euro trend that way over next few runs, although my $ is on the gfs just being wrong but we’ll see. It’ll just speed up the chances of frozen precip




.

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, jayyy said:

Incase anybody needs to hear this… DO NOT set this as your bar lol

What you talking bout. 38” or bust! 

[TSSN+]

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

High five 

Getting tired of shoveling all this digital snow. My back hurts. 

[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Bob has spoken. 

Lol. I'm just doing what I always do. Call it like I see it. I don't want my name attached to anything.... well, maybe after the widespread 8-15" event. I'll take credit then and only then  hahaha

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. I'm just doing what I always do. Call it like I see it. I don't want my name attached to anything.... well, maybe after the widespread 8-15" event. I'll take credit then and only then  hahaha

Too late your name is already attached to this

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Too late your name is already attached to this

 

 

Lol. You're not wrong. I just finished the solar install for our work shed. 2400 watts of panels, 3000w inverter, and 2kw of battery storage. Pretty awesome using the sun and a sawmill to build everything. Dry my milled wood while harvesting the sun to build. Freedom comes in many forms

[Fozz]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

lol

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

lol how long is the PSU window exactly? A month?

His storm failed.

Looks good for VA beach 

[NorthArlington101]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

lol how long is the PSU window exactly? A month?

His storm failed.

IIRC this first window wasn’t even the one he liked the most - but point taken. Onboard with the Bob Chill storm 

[Scraff]

So am I hearing this correctly? @Bob Chill carries a Louisville Slugger and is merely looking for a few base hits. HRs are nice, but key hits with runners in scoring position are more important. Did I interpret that right? 

[Darkstorm]

Just now, Scraff said:

So am I hearing this correctly? @Bob Chill carries a Louisville Slugger and is merely looking for a few base hits. HRs are nice, but key hits with runners in scoring position are more important. Did I interpret that right? 

Sounds like he is hitting coach for the O's 

[baltosquid]

GEFS getting more of a coastal look with the 28th but too north and warm at this point I’d say. EPS has a similar location but less precip. GEPS still seems to have a lot of variance.

[snowmagnet]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. I'm just doing what I always do. Call it like I see it. I don't want my name attached to anything.... well, maybe after the widespread 8-15" event. I'll take credit then and only then  hahaha

My hesitation during today's debacle storm was that we hadn't heard from you.  It should have been a red flag...

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

My hesitation during today's debacle storm was that we hadn't heard from you.  It should have been a red flag...

I never felt good about this one being more than a typical 3-6 deal. Any time you have disconnected or the chance at disconnected streams, its hard to get excited until everything agrees they will play nice because when they don't, a messy uncohesive storm is the result 9 times out of 10. The mid range runs 100% grabbed my attention and I started believing it may in fact turn the corner and dance a little but it didn't and that's that. 

I really REALLY hate when mid range models (euro in particular) go all ham at d 5-7. Pretty much ends the fun of the track like 19 times out of 20 lol. Losing a storm inside of 4 days sucks and it stings. No lie there. But hanging a hat on fantasy ops when they time and time and time again do this, that's a paradox 

Ensembles aren't helping inside of day 6 on both the eps/gefs because of the follow the leader stuff. It's been really bad this year. Patience is not a snow enthusiast strong point but enough beatings will teach just about anyone. I got knocked out in the years following 2016. By bring reasonable and patient i find that I enjoy every event quite a bit more than I ever have. Especially ones that back off in the short range. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

GEFS getting more of a coastal look with the 28th but too north and warm at this point I’d say. EPS has a similar location but less precip. GEPS still seems to have a lot of variance.

AI way warm as storm heads to our west then veers right over us.

AI throws a bone at the end of the run with a rain to snow for 3/4-5. Lol

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

GEFS getting more of a coastal look with the 28th but too north and warm at this point I’d say. EPS has a similar location but less precip. GEPS still seems to have a lot of variance.

Heisy pointed this out on the ops but the gefs shows it really clearly. 48hr h5 trends are 100% our friend. It's a flawed setup that is trending colder and more suppressed. Fits the personality of winter to a tee. We'll see if we can hit an inside straight. 

Beyond this even looks better every day 

[clskinsfan]

55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. You're not wrong. I just finished the solar install for our work shed. 2400 watts of panels, 3000w inverter, and 2kw of battery storage. Pretty awesome using the sun and a sawmill to build everything. Dry my milled wood while harvesting the sun to build. Freedom comes in many forms

I am a solar weenie too. When I built my new work shed last year I did roughly the same. 3kw panels, 3k inverter. But I did a lot more battery storage (15kwh), which is the most expensive part. I also ran my inverter to one outlet in my kitchen/dining area so I could power my fridge in a power outage. It has been working awesome.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am a solar weenie too. When I built my new work shed last year I did roughly the same. 3kw panels, 3k inverter. But I did a lot more battery storage (15kwh), which is the most expensive part. I also ran my inverter to one outlet in my kitchen/dining area so I could power my fridge in a power outage. It has been working awesome.

Yep, batteries.... made of gold apparently. Prices imploded this year. I wasnt originally going to build this part out this quick. We have generators and 12v solar but opportunity struck. I'm using EG4 server rack batteries and inverter. I have 2 1.2kw batteries now but the system is plug and play expandable to 16 batteries and 6 inverters. That would cost more than a car lol but I made sure I built something that can grow with ease and compatibility. I'm amazed I can run my big tools like planers and table saws when its sunny and never touch the battery power. 

Enough OT out of me lol. It's going to snow again. When I don't know but I'm 100% sure it will snow again within the next 12 months...

[baltosquid]

Something to chew on w/ regards to AI. Really had a good idea of the debacle from a long way out. We’re a bit beyond this range looking towards the 28th, so the current AI depiction has some more noise to work through than shown here around hr192, but we’re probably not far from the AI latching on to a credible idea of progression. Maybe even by Friday.

[anotherman]

The AI is becoming the new Dr. No.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

The AI is becoming the new Dr. No.

I have been quite impressed with its verification scores lately, at least under 7 day lead times

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

IIRC this first window wasn’t even the one he liked the most - but point taken. Onboard with the Bob Chill storm 

No originally Feb 20th was "the first opportunity" in what I thought was a favorable period from Feb 20-March 15th,  but when it got to about 10 days out I did jump "all in" on that window so I can't say now...no no I wasn't wrong.  I really really liked the look...at at the 30k foot level it was really good. 

 

I mean if you just anyone these 2 panels, I mean honeslty this looks really really close to how a lot of our big snows.  If we are being uber picky maybe its more MECS than HECS...the PNA ridge isn't quite as bonkers as we would want due to the weak kicker, the H5 track is slightly NW of idea which might actually make me think its a snow to mix event if I was just looking at the h5...but if you just showed me these daily plots I would expect to flip to the surface and see a nice storm for us.  We got unlucky with some of the finer details that just went all wrong.  Weak SS wave that ran away out ahead, ULL that had a little too much depth possibly and acted like a kicker v an amplifier.  Split wave structure that destructively interfered with itself.  The ULL didn't really separate fully from the PV which flattened the flow in front.  And I think we could have overcome most of those small issues...just not all of them at once.  They were all very minor flaws...a stronger SS wave and it wouldn't have mattered.  A more consolidated wave without a duel wave structure and we would have been ok.  A full detatch of the ULL TPV split and the weaker SS wave would have worked.  There were actually more ways to win than fail for once in this setup and we managed to pull a fail out of the hat even with the deck stacked in our favor.  That's what makes this one hurt so much.