February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Was it not last year that the SER kept hooking up with the -NAO?  Or maybe it was just the -PDO at -5 standard deviation....

I think it was the -PDO. Last year was a legit Niño so I don't recall a SER. But if someone has the plot @psuhoffman?)...Now the year BEFORE? Yes we had a full lat ridge most of that winter, smh Last year the -NAO wasn't even stable. Went deeeeep negative then shot way up.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Was it not last year that the SER kept hooking up with the -NAO?  Or maybe it was just the -PDO at -5 standard deviation....

No. Last year guidance kept teasing with a classic Nino look- lots of action in the STJ with negative h5 heights across the south/southeast, and strong NA block developing- then the rug pull. Advertised pattern totally went to crap.

eta- that was Feb. We did have a nice Nino-ish period in late Dec into Jan, with modest snowfall. SER wasn't an issue though.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think it was the -PDO. Last year was a legit Niño so I don't recall a SER. But if someone has the plot @psuhoffman?)...Now the year BEFORE? Yes we had a full lat ridge most of that winter, smh Last year the -NAO wasn't even stable. Went deeeeep negative then shot way up.

Here ya go. SER wasn't an issue.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Here ya go. SER wasn't an issue.

That's what I thought! Seems they were conflating the two. I still feel like the dep -PDO ruined that. Are there any other analogs to -PDOs screwing with niños, btw?

[Interstate]

We do ice so well when the temps are marginal and it’s 50° a day before.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought! Seems they were conflating the two. I still feel like the dep -PDO ruined that. Are there any other analogs to -PDOs screwing with niños, btw?

A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought! Seems they were conflating the two. I still feel like the dep -PDO ruined that. Are there any other analogs to -PDOs screwing with niños, btw?

The only other case I can think of is 1972-73, which It had a more negative PDO than any other analogs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Going to be a close call

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

We do ice so well when the temps are marginal and it’s 50° a day before.

Previous temperatures don't matter as much as you would think.. water is heavy so the surfaces quickly change to the water temp. Plus this 5th/6 storm is happening at night. 

[Terpeast]

Don’t have much to add to the commentary about the ensemble snow means between feb 10 and 17. Big signal. But don’t have a well defined threat yet. It’s like blurry double vision from afar, and then as it gets closer, it’ll congeal into a single big threat and then maybe a smaller follow up that can’t be seen this far out. And that doesn’t even include what happens past the 17th, for which the euro weeklies have gotten colder. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.

-PDO Strong El Nino is 65/66, 72/73, 23/24.. 65/66 was -NAO and a little weaker ENSO. But if you used the 72/73 analog last Winter you would have done good... subsurface water temps might be the better gauge. This Winter has shown that the PDO can be mutable to other factors/atmospheric drivers. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Someone should make a thread for Feb 5/6. We will probably get WWA's

[NorthArlington101]

icy impacts Wednesday are probably unlikely inside the city but I think our typically colder spots are looking at an event that'll get them a WAA -- may deserve a thread at 00z.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

icy impacts Wednesday are probably unlikely inside the city but I think our typically colder spots are looking at an event that'll get them a WAA -- may deserve a thread at 00z.

Depends what model is right. Gfs would be ice storm warning levels for northern tier. 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Depends what model is right. Gfs would be ice storm warning levels for northern tier. 

I’m gonna lean compromise but even that EURO is fairly impactful up there - 0.2” of ice accreting slowly. Rough pre-storm airmass will lessen the blow but trees/power lines won’t care much. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Someone should make a thread for Feb 5/6. We will probably get WWA's

Wow, 2 of your last 3 posts I agree with. SPV split must be freezing hell over.

[87storms]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m gonna lean compromise but even that EURO is fairly impactful up there - 0.2” of ice accreting slowly. Rough pre-storm airmass will lessen the blow but trees/power lines won’t care much. 

Elevated surfaces most definitely can freeze assuming the model is correct, so that could be an issue.  Streets are gonna be a nothing burger...not with the airmass leading in.  Tomorrow and Tuesday might actually feel like very early spring.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Here ya go. SER wasn't an issue.

I could have sworn SER made some appearances last year in between Pac Puke episodes.  I guess to clarify when I speak of the "SER" I am including the -PDO propensity for heights to spike to the North Pole in front of every short wave.  Maybe that is a different animal from a stable bermuda ridge.    

[cbmclean]

56 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.

But the way in which a -PDO screws with a nino is by favoring + height anomalies in east, counteracting the nino propensity to drive a trough their, right?

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Elevated surfaces most definitely can freeze assuming the model is correct, so that could be an issue.  Streets are gonna be a nothing burger...not with the airmass leading in.  Tomorrow and Tuesday might actually feel like very early spring.

Up north might even be on roads and sidewalks especially if it snows and sleets for a while first. 

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Up north might even be on roads and sidewalks especially if it snows and sleets for a while first. 

True, a layer of sleet would certainly allow for accretion on pavement, just hard to believe that being an issue with the milder temps leading in...though CAD can be sneaky here, so we'll see.  Next battle will be how quickly precip moves in.

[mitchnick]

Fyi Cfs2 February precip anomaly. 

[Ji]

Fyi Cfs2 February precip anomaly. 

Hopefully 95 percent of that is snow

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi Cfs2 February precip anomaly. 

I'm afraid to ask what's the temp anomaly?

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm afraid to ask what's the temp anomaly?

Wrong

[mitchnick]

Crummy AI run. Nothing much to see in MA or NE. Lot of threats off the coast again. Fugetaboutit.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

This year has seen big time blocking already, so a return is credible imho unlike previous years.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

Welcome to the party, come inside, let me take your coat. 

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS went all out Polar Blocking at the end of the run.. caved to the EPS. 

Scandinavia and NW Russia are going to have a 5700dm block.. +600dm! at Days 4-5, so that's actually a really good loading pattern for -NAO. It rolls forward to about a +120dm -NAO in ~+10 days. I wonder if the models have bias at all with this historical tendency. 

Sounds like you also caved to the weenies lol