February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

See ya every 6 hours thru mid March brother. It's coming 

For the first time this winter, I didn't purposely look at the long range until people started talking about some southern blizzard.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For the first time this winter, I didn't purposely look at the long range until people started talking about some southern blizzard.

Gefs is pretty good for the Mar 4-8th window. Southern rockies > deep south > MA... I'm kinda feelin this one too. Not the specific gfs idea. Just that it's coming, won't take forever, and will be keeping us up at night soon enough. Gefs just looks dang good considering 

 

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is pretty good for the Mar 4-8th window. Southern rockies > deep south > MA... I'm kinda feelin this one too. Not the specific gfs idea. Just that it's coming, won't take forever, and will be keeping us up at night soon enough. Gefs just looks dang good considering 

 

 

March 1993 coming...50 miles easter.   Just to make up for the current debacle

[mitchnick]

I'm pretty ticked how cold Eps and Gefs are in the LR. Nothing will change snow-wise. I feel pretty sure about it. Just another cold Nina spring with nothing to show for it.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is pretty good for the Mar 4-8th window. Southern rockies > deep south > MA... I'm kinda feelin this one too. Not the specific gfs idea. Just that it's coming, won't take forever, and will be keeping us up at night soon enough. Gefs just looks dang good considering 

 

 

This falls in line with the next cold window I'm seeing around March 4-10. I think it'll be a shorter window than the models are predicting. Here's hoping we get a well timed wave in that window as a last winter gasp.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

March 1993 coming...50 miles easter.   Just to make up for the current debacle

bring it home 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This falls in line with the next cold window I'm seeing around March 4-10. I think it'll be a shorter window than the models are predicting. Here's hoping we get a well timed wave in that window as a last winter gasp.

I didn't really want to focus on the larger picture until I was ready to give up on the storm.  We don't get a legit good pattern setup for a big snow that often anymore so losing one to bad luck was just hard for me to take!  But I also think the TPV splitting and dropping fulling into the US, not only probably screwed up our chances at the big storm (not the lobe but from a 30k feet view I think it actually broke off TOO much energy and the ULL that was the result acted more like a PV than an ULL and was a suppressive not amplifying force) but that process also pinwheeled the AO block all the way into the US and linked up with the PNA and the PV filled the void and spiked the AO positive again.  This created a "gap" in our colder regime.  So instead of colder and maybe snowier Feb 20-Mar 10 we ended up with a break in the middle.  So it screwed up both our short term chances at a MECS but also potentially our longer term chances by created a dead space in the middle of our MJO driven colder pattern.  Luckly we probably will still get one more window of opportunity in March before time runs out.  

[mitchnick]

Today’s weeklies are not screaming cold if they are correct and suggest that the cold on the Eps will be short lived.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202503030000

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm pretty ticked how cold Eps and Gefs are in the LR. Nothing will change snow-wise. I feel pretty sure about it. Just another cold Nina spring with nothing to show for it.

you are "probably" right... but ya never know.  By April things will warm up no matter the pattern, a sunny day will feel good.  What's another couple weeks of "chilly" to get one or two more rolls of the dice.  Once in a while things do turn around.  Remember how we felt getting into mid Feb 2015 when every freaking storm was hitting New England and we had almost no snow...then we got on a heater through mid March.  March 2018 MD west of the bay had done awful all winter long...then we got that March 20 storm which was 4-8" for most of the area.  And I dont know if you were up here yet...but you got about 15" where you live now from that one!  It can happen.  Probably not, but its not 0 and hope is all we got man.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s weeklies are not screaming cold if they are correct and suggest that the cold on the Eps will be short lived.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202503030000

By March 15 the MJO will be getting into hostile territory again if the seasonal trends continue so this makes sense.  I think our best window is only the first half of March.  Which is fine because it takes a crazy anomaly to get snow after that anyways.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

you are "probably" right... but ya never know.  By April things will warm up no matter the pattern, a sunny day will feel good.  What's another couple weeks of "chilly" to get one or two more rolls of the dice.  Once in a while things do turn around.  Remember how we felt getting into mid Feb 2015 when every freaking storm was hitting New England and we had almost no snow...then we got on a heater through mid March.  March 2018 MD west of the bay had done awful all winter long...then we got that March 20 storm which was 4-8" for most of the area.  And I dont know if you were up here yet...but you got about 15" where you live now from that one!  It can happen.  Probably not, but its not 0 and hope is all we got man.  

We would need a fluke in every sense of the word. No one can say for certain, but I  just don't see US getting a fluke snow. If any place it would be DC, BWI, SBY, or RIC in all likelihood based on the pattern.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

We would need a fluke in every sense of the word. No one can say for certain, but I  just don't see US getting a fluke snow. If any place it would be DC, BWI, SBY, or RIC in all likelihood based on the pattern.

probably yes... but I brought up 2018 because that was a similar season, nina, most of the snow had hit to our NW or SE that year...a good Delmarva snow in January.  Then we got that March snowstorm.  You're right its not likely, but it does happen.  That's all I got.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

By March 15 the MJO will be getting into hostile territory again if the seasonal trends continue so this makes sense.  I think our best window is only the first half of March.  Which is fine because it takes a crazy anomaly to get snow after that anyways.  

My wag is 2/28-3/10. Nothing before of consequence and nothing after, if at all, with south and east of us favored.

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn't really want to focus on the larger picture until I was ready to give up on the storm.  We don't get a legit good pattern setup for a big snow that often anymore so losing one to bad luck was just hard for me to take!  But I also think the TPV splitting and dropping fulling into the US, not only probably screwed up our chances at the big storm (not the lobe but from a 30k feet view I think it actually broke off TOO much energy and the ULL that was the result acted more like a PV than an ULL and was a suppressive not amplifying force) but that process also pinwheeled the AO block all the way into the US and linked up with the PNA and the PV filled the void and spiked the AO positive again.  This created a "gap" in our colder regime.  So instead of colder and maybe snowier Feb 20-Mar 10 we ended up with a break in the middle.  So it screwed up both our short term chances at a MECS but also potentially our longer term chances by created a dead space in the middle of our MJO driven colder pattern.  Luckly we probably will still get one more window of opportunity in March before time runs out.  

It’s seemed like in recent years anytime the pv is brought into the equation it always ends up hurting us, has it all just been bad luck?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

My wag is 2/28-3/10. Nothing before of consequence and nothing after, if at all, with south and east of us favored.

Can't disagree... just want to throw out that in seasons that had a definitive "trend" (not all do) March was the most likely month to get an anomaly that broke the snowfall norms of that season.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It’s seemed like in recent years anytime the pv is brought into the equation it always ends up hurting us, has it all just been bad luck?

I'm not sure that is all that unusual.  If you look at our snoweist periods historically they don't typically have a PV hanging around close to us, which is also why our snowiest periods arent crazy cold either.  Problem is the only time weve been cold enough to snow lately is with a PV close...I really don't want to get into this right now.  

[Heisy]

.

[Maestrobjwa]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not sure that is all that unusual.  If you look at our snoweist periods historically they don't typically have a PV hanging around close to us, which is also why our snowiest periods arent crazy cold either.  Problem is the only time weve been cold enough to snow lately is with a PV close...I really don't want to get into this right now.  

Yeah we haven't had to use that thread all winter don't break the streak now  

[Ji]

Mitchnick will like the AI for feb 27-28

 

[Heisy]

Mitchnick will like the AI for feb 27-28
 

Somehow the temps are in issue on that one even with a perfect track. It’s a perfectly timed shortwave behind another which I mentioned is one way to score next 10-15 days. I hope for Psu’s sanity that if the h5 looks like this it will snow lol






.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Somehow the temps are in issue on that one even with a perfect track. It’s a perfectly timed shortwave behind another which I mentioned is one way to score next 10-15 days. I hope for Psu’s sanity that if the h5 looks like this it will snow lol






.

Now that’s one for my book if it’s rain 

[Heisy]

Now that’s one for my book if it’s rain 

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[Fozz]

Is it really too much to ask for one dynamic 8-12” snowstorm north of I-70?

I’ll take a repeat of March 2018, it looked and felt like midwinter.

[baltosquid]

Kinda looks like it’s not a Miller B anymore judging by the AI and EPS. Maybe a hybrid. But moot until we see something to suggest better temps

[psuhoffman]

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good grief 

[Heisy]

18z gfs might try to do the same thing Ai did

(Wave N of Texas)




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[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs might try to do the same thing Ai did

(Wave N of Texas)




.

It gets here and....thermals are an issue

ETA:  We're to the left of the 0 line, but I'm pretty sure there's a warm layer and the freezing line is up in west central PA.   But yeah, it's 225 hours so...

[Heisy]

It gets here and....thermals are an issue
ETA:  We're to the left of the 0 line, but I'm pretty sure there's a warm layer and the freezing line is up in west central PA.   But yeah, it's 225 hours so...

Looks like a NW hit


.

[psuhoffman]

Looks great to me @mitchnick

lol

this winter isn’t letting us go without more pain.