February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Heisy]

Might be a reasonable chance for something here.

Ai has been showing that wave a few runs now, but it’s been too warm. Obviously well out in time though


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[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My question is...why have those w-e been so bad in our yards the last 8 years? Constantly hitting the same dang wall like that seems weird to me. Ya poked me a bit when I shared that post from Bluewave about something in the Pacific (ocean temps around Japam or something like that) possibly being a culprit...but this is why I did. Seems weird that those waves have setup at the exact same spot all this time.

Some of its bad luck. But if you look at Nina snow anomalies Baltimore is ground zero for the snow minimum wrt climo. Snow wrt climo increases sharply across the bay on the Delmarva and increases more gradually to the NW. And we’ve been in a Nina type base state for a while. Even in non Nina years. 
 

The issue with these Nina like cold wave patterns is when the waves amplify at all or phase some they track north of us. When they don’t amplify they get suppressed south. I don’t think that’s totally chance. I think we are in a dead zone for those waves between the more amplified ones and suppressed ones.  That’s why I want a return of the pattern from 2000-2016 where we had a lot more amplified coastal storms each winter. 

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just need some cold and luck with wave timing. The epic pretty h5 patterns can easily fail because of bad luck. Seen it happen quite a bit in recent winters.

We can definitely get snow in that look but it’s really hard to get a big snowstorm in that look. And it’s way too late to save this god awful disaster up here with anything short of a MECS to end the season, the way 2018 was similarly saved and went from a F to a B winter for me purely bc of a 14” snow in March!  Similar winter in that we missed a couple storms to the SE and went into March at like 50% of climo!   A couple 3” snows won’t change my opinion of this winter. I’m big game hunting now. Only a wall trophy storm saves this mess. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some of its bad luck. But if you look at Nina snow anomalies Baltimore is ground zero for the snow minimum wrt climo. Snow wrt climo increases sharply across the bay on the Delmarva and increases more gradually to the NW. And we’ve been in a Nina type base state for a while. Even in non Nina years. 
 

The issue with these Nina like cold wave patterns is when the waves amplify at all or phase some they track north of us. When they don’t amplify they get suppressed south. I don’t think that’s totally chance. I think we are in a dead zone for those waves between the more amplified ones and suppressed ones.  That’s why I want a return of the pattern from 2000-2016 where we had a lot more amplified coastal storms each winter. 

We can definitely get snow in that look but it’s really hard to get a big snowstorm in that look. And it’s way too late to save this god awful disaster up here with anything short of a MECS to end the season, the way 2018 was similarly saved and went from a F to a B winter for me purely bc of a 14” snow in March!  Similar winter in that we missed a couple storms to the SE and went into March at like 50% of climo!   A couple 3” snows won’t change my opinion of this winter. I’m big game hunting now. Only a wall trophy storm saves this mess. 

We need a Modoki Nino next winter in a big way.

[AlexD1990]

Nice to see at least there might still be some tracking for a week or two. I'm demented in that I want to at least have a shot through St Patrick's Day ( you can thank 2014 and 2015 for spoiling me and thinking that snow is possible this for South at that date lol)

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Nice to see at least there might still be some tracking for a week or two. I'm demented in that I want to at least have a shot through St Patrick's Day ( you can thank 2014 and 2015 for spoiling me and thinking that snow is possible this for South at that date lol)

Seeing late day sun shooting straight through the sidelights on my front door tells my brain Spring is really close.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, CAPE said:

Seeing late day sun shooting straight through the sidelights on my front door tells my brain Spring is really close.

Yeah I started to notice that subconscious acknowledgment of light after 5:00 p.m. and it really does make me start to want springtime...

 

But I also still want snow LOL.

[Fozz]

49 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Nice to see at least there might still be some tracking for a week or two. I'm demented in that I want to at least have a shot through St Patrick's Day ( you can thank 2014 and 2015 for spoiling me and thinking that snow is possible this for South at that date lol)

Yeah if we’re in the game for more storms in March then bring it on. We’ll have plenty more time afterwards for warmth and flowers.

[JenkinsJinkies]

51 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Nice to see at least there might still be some tracking for a week or two. I'm demented in that I want to at least have a shot through St Patrick's Day ( you can thank 2014 and 2015 for spoiling me and thinking that snow is possible this for South at that date lol)

2018 gave us snow even later than that.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

2018 gave us snow even later than that.

The first day of spring was hilarious (I remember making a video to troll my friends who aren't big on snow, lol)

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

2018 gave us snow even later than that.

Maybe for some I don't necessarily recall for my backyard. Definitely The forum on that side of the Bay has a really good shot up until maybe the last week of March but for me St Patrick's day is pushing it as it is. Either way I'm glad to be tracking before we enter a month or two of doldrums before maybe some nice severe weather.

[blizzardmeiser]

33 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Yeah I started to notice that subconscious acknowledgment of light after 5:00 p.m. and it really does make me start to want springtime...

 

But I also still want snow LOL.

Days getting longer. Once we change the clocks it’ll be light till after 7 and I’ll be ready for spring. 

[baltosquid]

Far out but the only thing on ensembles with any specificity is what looks like a Miller B late next week, judging by ensembles. But we're gonna have our work cut out for us temperature wise in that time frame. Didn't include the CMC because it's keeping the low way up along the lakes so not much to show.

 

 

Pretty lackluster. But winter's almost over.

[aldie 22]

2 hours ago, Deck Pic2 said:

I stick with it through March.  Too many late season storms the last 10 years to just move on.  

Lol creative name

[bncho]

1 hour ago, baltosquid said:

Far out but the only thing on ensembles with any specificity is what looks like a Miller B late next week, judging by ensembles. But we're gonna have our work cut out for us temperature wise in that time frame. Didn't include the CMC because it's keeping the low way up along the lakes so not much to show.

 

 

Pretty lackluster. But winter's almost over.
 

That Miller B hopefully continues the deamplification and suppression trend.

[Heisy]

I could see March 7-20th range having some last gasp threats


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[frd]

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I could see March 7-20th range having some last gasp threats


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GFS with a more robust - EPO signal, Euro not as much, Euro AI even less.  

 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

GFS with a more robust - EPO signal, Euro not as much, Euro AI even less.  

 

During March, as long as Canada isn't torching, all we need for snow is a +pna. It's not easy snow without other stuff but simple continental cold and a decent trough axis can get it done. Down my way I need things pretty anomalous to get the column right but the nova/md/de zone can get it done without anything crazy. March is cutoff season too so a cutoff bowls into an OK antecedent airmass works too. 

I don't see any classic big storm stuff but imo, from what I'm seeing, odds def favor another accum snow event (or more) versus flipping the switch and swatting mosquitoes 

[baltosquid]

 

Miller B signal got stronger at 00z on the EPS and GEPS, but 06z GEFS is a bit weaker (still apparent). Temps still not great.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

 

Miller B signal got stronger at 00z on the EPS and GEPS, but 06z GEFS is a bit weaker (still apparent). Temps still not great.

that shit will deamp and go give snow to NC

[Heisy]

that shit will deamp and go give snow to NC

the temps are the issue with this one, low chance of snow next 2 weeks unless we time a shortwave perfectly behind one, but maybe around day 15-25 we can sneak something if we get a -epo or PNA ridge


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[stormtracker]

I mean absolutely no disrespect to anyone here, yall all capture the signal for the upcoming thing from long long away.   But the PTSD from this one will have me underwhelmed for anything over 3 days out. 

[Heisy]

Gfs actually looks good today. Even has a mid Atlantic snowstorm at the end


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[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean absolutely no disrespect to anyone here, yall all capture the signal for the upcoming thing from long long away.   But the PTSD from this one will have me underwhelmed for anything over 3 days out. 

See ya every 6 hours thru mid March brother. It's coming 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs actually looks good today. Even has a mid Atlantic snowstorm at the end


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Also has some light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning 

[Heisy]

GEFS is bringing the tpv farther S run after run

By 180 hours


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[Heisy]

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[anotherman]

GEFS is bringing the tpv farther S run after run

By 180 hours


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Another New Orleans snowstorm?

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs actually looks good today. Even has a mid Atlantic snowstorm at the end


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You mean VA/NC Blizzard. At least amounts qualify for one.

[mitchnick]

Idk how well the AI does with identifying threats in the Long range compared to the ensembles, but once a threat is within 7 days, the AI can't be ignored regardless of operationals and ensembles to the contrary imho.

[Terpeast]

@mitchnick I think you'll find this interesting:

Known AIFS Forecasting Issues - Forecast User - ECMWF Confluence Wiki