February Medium/Long Range Thread

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

I was thinking about this yesterday.  Growing up in central PG county, this would have been an excellent winter back then. There would have been snow on the ground for two plus weeks on the shaded hill we used to sled, and plenty cold for the shallow pond to freeze that I used to skate on.  One thing very different then was that it was 100% a backyard winter.  I had no idea how much snow anyone else got and just assumed it was the same all around me.  I'd have loved this winter back then.

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the PDO does indeed flip then if we get a Niño like last year’s then we could finally get the goods?

Well, that would be the next test. I mean last year was so insanely negative I wonder if that would've worked with any niño in the past (anybody have any analogs). You'd HOPE a modoki with a +PDO would yield a better result...but as with everything else ya still have to see what still works and how.

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, that would be the next test. I mean last year was so insanely negative I wonder if that would've worked with any niño in the past (anybody have any analogs). You'd HOPE a modoki with a +PDO would yield a better result...but as with everything else ya still have to see what still works and how.

If a +PDO Modoki Nino doesn't produce here people will LITERALLY jump off a cliff (or move to syracuse)

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, that would be the next test. I mean last year was so insanely negative I wonder if that would've worked with any niño in the past (anybody have any analogs). You'd HOPE a modoki with a +PDO would yield a better result...but as with everything else ya still have to see what still works and how.

One thing this winter illustrated is that the bulk of the problem was the PDO.

[Terpeast]

El Nino next winter is not a lock. We’ll know better by summer, but looks neutral maybe nina-ish going into Fall right now

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

El Nino next winter is not a lock. We’ll know better by summer, but looks neutral maybe nina-ish going into Fall right now

Niñas usually double dip, I don’t know why that’s a surprise to some…

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Niñas usually double dip, I don’t know why that’s a surprise to some…

Sorry if it sounds selfish, but I have an overseas family trip planned next February and I’d be more worried about missing the big one if it were an el nino. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Niñas usually double dip, I don’t know why that’s a surprise to some…

Yeah I'm not sure they do it EVERY time...I mean the 2017-18 nina didn't, and instead we got a weak niño instead. But double dipping does seem to happen more overall, smh

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sorry if it sounds selfish, but I have an overseas family trip planned next February and I’d be more worried about missing the big one if it were an el nino. 

I missed 1/6 due to that kind of family trip.

Oh well. I’m just glad it was 5-6” and not a MECS or more where I live

[Terpeast]

22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was thinking about this yesterday.  Growing up in central PG county, this would have been an excellent winter back then. There would have been snow on the ground for two plus weeks on the shaded hill we used to sled, and plenty cold for the shallow pond to freeze that I used to skate on.  One thing very different then was that it was 100% a backyard winter.  I had no idea how much snow anyone else got and just assumed it was the same all around me.  I'd have loved this winter back then.

Yep. Ignorance was bliss. Now it’s like we know too much 

[baltosquid]

Yeah in terms of extended snow on the ground, we were really able to milk January for all it was worth. Got a lot water to freeze too. Haven't really seen that very much since I moved here in 2018. If I never paid attention to the weather I'd have probably thought these past two winters were good to great given how generally crappy everything has been since March 2018. But put in perspective, it's sad how difficult every setup has been over the past half decade plus. I am cautiously optimistic at things finally seeming a little easier with an improving PDO now, though.

[rjvanals]

Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo 

[Kay]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Yup. Solid A in the lowlands. Doesn't feel like it today though lol. I had a lot of fun experiences in January hiking snowy trails at our local state parks a nature reserve. We had frozen ponds, 4 weeks of snowpack and two storms over 6". It's hard to complain about that. Now March 1 can bring on spring. I'm ready to get back to work and get my business going for the new season. 

 

1 hour ago, frd said:

Define lowlands. Because here I am below climo. @CAPE did much better than me to my far SSW.  Seasonal trend/outcomes sucked here.  

 

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Lowlands are from the fall line to the Chesapeake Bay. The eastern shore is the flatlands.

 

 

#myrelentlesslowlandshobbyhorse

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo 

Not bad for DC.

Looking at My snow totals unless we get something this season , It's been atleast 3 seasons in a row  without a 6"+ Storm  for Smithsburg. 

That's pretty nuts and not normal for the area up along the PA border.

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, Kay said:

 

 

 

 

#myrelentlesslowlandshobbyhorse

I feel like i gained a crew this season. Let's go LOWLANDERS! Woopwoop lol

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Not bad for DC.

Looking at My snow totals unless we get something this season , It's been atleast 3 seasons in a row  without a 6"+ Storm  for Smithsburg. 

That's pretty nuts and not normal for the area up along the PA border.

Yeah it's not normal but mostly just bad luck for your backyard since you've had chances but they've all underperformed for various small scale reasons

[rjvanals]

The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter 

[Kay]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I feel like i gained a crew this season. Let's go LOWLANDERS! Woopwoop lol

If I've done anything to help us northern lowlanders be recognized as legit lowlanders, to help the forum understand it's not all mountainous awesome climo up in here, progress has been made! Seriously, it's been good to see your area and the southern lowlands get hammered. Rock on. We all suffer climo-wise.

[mitchnick]

Technically, starting from the ocean, you have the tidewater on the Eastern shore, then the coastal plain from the western shores of the Bay until you hit the piedmont, also referred to as the fall line, that continues until you reach the first ridge, the mountains. Also, some do include the tidewater and coastal plain as part of the coastal plain arguing that the Bay is just a body of water that intruded into the coastal plain after the ocean receeded. 

My recollection from a college geography class when the Bee Gees were #1 in the charts, was that the area inclusive of the tidewater and coastal plain were, at one time, under the/an ocean.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

Agree with all this. But on a side note, I (and the rest of northern MD) really needs this predominant cycle of the last 8 years where almost all our snow comes from these progressive w-e boundary waves to end.  It makes sense that some of our lowlands are doing way better wrt climo than here. It takes a lot less luck in those patterns to get to climo when you avg 17” than 39”  A couple lucky hits and you’re there. Up here I’m not lucking my way to a 40” that way!   I need the amplified coastal to come out of retirement!    

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Technically, starting from the ocean, you have the tidewater on the Eastern shore, then the coastal plain from the western shores of the Bay until you hit the piedmont, also referred to as the fall line, that continues until you reach the first ridge, the mountains. Also, some do include the tidewater and coastal plain as part of the coastal plain arguing that the Bay is just a body of water that intruded into the coastal plain after the ocean receeded. 

My recollection from a college geography class when the Bee Gees were #1 in the charts, was that the area inclusive of the tidewater and coastal plain were, at one time, under the/an ocean.

We done Mitch? 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Kay said:

If I've done anything to help us northern lowlanders be recognized as legit lowlanders, to help the forum understand it's not all mountainous awesome climo up in here, progress has been made! Seriously, it's been good to see your area and the southern lowlands get hammered. Rock on. We all suffer climo-wise.

The view for us lowlanders for the past 20yrs....

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, rjvanals said:

The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter 

With a few minor changes, 1/6-1/10 could’ve been a slightly lesser version of Feb 6-10 2010, even for the northern tier.

Those 10” totals from the first wave and those HECS totals from the second were absolutely in play even north of I-70, and the upper level setup was probably as good as it could get for that to play out.

But it’s just bad dumb luck these days.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

El Nino next winter is not a lock. We’ll know better by summer, but looks neutral maybe nina-ish going into Fall right now

If next winter ends up enso neutral our fate is probably hanging on whether the PDO is actually flipping.  +pdo neutral winters can be pretty good  -pdo ones have been god awful lately!  

 

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast obviously we’ve talked about our degrading snow climo, but there is an oddity within the trends. It’s enso neutral winters that have been killing is.  Enso neutral winters used to be pretty snowy. Actually if you go back far enough there wasn’t much difference between neutral and Nino wrt snowfall. Nino snowfall actually hasn’t declined at all, but it has become more variable with bigger highs (2010) and more duds (2024).  La Niña snowfall hasn’t declined much either. It was always bad and remains bad.  But enso neutral winters have joined Nina’s more and more and now over the last 20 years are just as bad!  Losing enso neutral winters as “snowy” is the biggest part of our snowfall loss. 
 

Just to clarify enso neutral was never all snowy but it was half and half. Kinda a crap shoot. Lately it’s more 80/20 bad. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree with all this. But on a side note, I (and the rest of northern MD) really needs this predominant cycle of the last 8 years where almost all our snow comes from these progressive w-e boundary waves to end.  It makes sense that some of our lowlands are doing way better wrt climo than here. It takes a lot less luck in those patterns to get to climo when you avg 17” than 39”  A couple lucky hits and you’re there. Up here I’m not lucking my way to a 40” that way!   I need the amplified coastal to come out of retirement!    

My question is...why have those w-e been so bad in our yards the last 8 years? Constantly hitting the same dang wall like that seems weird to me. Ya poked me a bit when I shared that post from Bluewave about something in the Pacific (ocean temps around Japam or something like that) possibly being a culprit...but this is why I did. Seems weird that those waves have setup at the exact same spot all this time.

[CAPE]

Might be a reasonable chance for something here.

[SnowenOutThere]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Might be a reasonable chance for something here.

Well a -NAO/-AO (don’t hurt me chuck) couldn’t get it done so let’s try the opposite 

[CAPE]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Well a -NAO/-AO (don’t hurt me chuck) couldn’t get it done so let’s try the opposite 

Just need some cold and luck with wave timing. The epic pretty h5 patterns can easily fail because of bad luck. Seen it happen quite a bit in recent winters.

[Heisy]

-Epo showing up

Idk if this gets it done in March, but maybe if you ride that pattern out a few days it gets better





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