February Medium/Long Range Thread

[BlizzardNole]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS has a real warm pattern setting up at h384, early March.. early Spring-like if it holds with -PNA and +NAO

Please let that be right!  I want huge SER and a +10 temp departure for March.  Put a bullet into the head of this winter, point blank range

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Please let that be right!  I want huge SER and a +10 temp departure for March.  Put a bullet into the head of this winter, point blank range

 

[Maestrobjwa]

So...what are the early thoughts on ENSO next year? 

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...what are the early thoughts on ENSO next year? 

+PDO Modoki Nino as advertised on the CANSIPS

[Ephesians2]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS has a real warm pattern setting up at h384, early March.. early Spring-like if it holds with -PNA and +NAO

That pattern doesn't look that warm to me - could be wrong though. It looks like a neutral PNA and negative EPO. Also, the temp departures are near normal for early March on the GEFS. 

[Terpeast]

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

For me, I'm thinking a C+ as of now. At 22" vs climo of approx 26.5", but tons of cold, a bunch of wintry days with snow showers and snow covered trees/yards. It felt like winter a lot of the season. 

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

Yup. Solid A in the lowlands. Doesn't feel like it today though lol. I had a lot of fun experiences in January hiking snowy trails at our local state parks a nature reserve. We had frozen ponds, 4 weeks of snowpack and two storms over 6". It's hard to complain about that. Now March 1 can bring on spring. I'm ready to get back to work and get my business going for the new season. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

This is why I couldn't go any lower than a B- even with another winter below the median for my yard. We all expected it to be crappy coming in, and instead...the "feel" was wall-to-wall winter! A very pleasant surprise--really enjoyed January in particular...haven't had an almost month-long snowpack since what...2014?

Now, we don't talk about models (no, no, no)...

[Heisy]

Euro Ai keeps popping a -EPO around day 15, A quality met. On our discord pointed out the best analogs for this year favor week 1-2 March.

Snow chances the next 10-14 days look very low, and yeah maybe we are done, but we’ll see what happens


.

[Bob Chill]

We'll be tracking a window within a week imho. From what I see, another period of +pna/-epo is possible first 10 days of March and any "warmup" will be under a week. Last blocking collapse evolved into a -epo/+pna so there is precedence. Not the best snow pattern but it's March and things can be powderkeggy 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll be tracking a window within a week imho. From what I see, another period of +pna/-epo is possible first 10 days of March and any "warmup" will be under a week. Last blocking collapse evolved into a -epo/+pna so there is precedence. Not the best snow pattern but it's March and things can be powderkeggy 

Brief, muted warm-ups followed by a quick return to cold has probably been THE most refreshing tendency of this season. I mean how often have we had to deal with the polar opposite the last several years? Lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Brief, muted warm-ups followed by a quick return to cold has probably been THE most refreshing tendency of this season. I mean how often have we had to deal with the polar opposite the last several years? Lol

21-22 was the last time this happened.

[frd]

35 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Yup. Solid A in the lowlands. Doesn't feel like it today though lol. I had a lot of fun experiences in January hiking snowy trails at our local state parks a nature reserve. We had frozen ponds, 4 weeks of snowpack and two storms over 6". It's hard to complain about that. Now March 1 can bring on spring. I'm ready to get back to work and get my business going for the new season. 

Define lowlands. Because here I am below climo. @CAPE did much better than me to my far SSW.  Seasonal trend/outcomes sucked here.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

21-22 was the last time this happened.

Didn't that torch in February, though?

[WVclimo]

Too early for me to grade the winter here with March still looming.  But to date it’s been another lackluster season.  I have about an inch more of snow than last year.  About 60% of climo.
I have enjoyed the consistent cold weather, but paying the electric bill has taken some of the fun out of that.  Some onion snow would certainly be welcome before March Madness and the start of baseball season.

[HighStakes]

We got unlucky the week after the storm on the 19th of January. That entire week we had plenty cold and not one threat materialized. First one was on Tuesday/Wednesday and that failed. Then there was a chance on Friday that never got going and finally the following Monday chance that failed. Had we just had one more moderate event that week and cashed in this week with at least a moderate event this would have been a very solid winter. Not to be!

[Bob Chill]

Some interesting analogs showing up in the LR. March 2008 and 1994 storms along with Feb 1997. 

March 08 was of course an OH/western PA deal but it was a big storm. Current analog sets seem to favor a big storm happening in the east half of the country ptype is a different discussion lol but some MA snows are in the mix. Are we sure winter is done and it's time to grade and watch baseball?

[osfan24]

Unless there is another -AO/-NAO upcoming, I don’t see much to get excited about. Either way, after this latest massive fail, the de amplification trend all winter plus the Route 50 South train tracks make it hard to get interested.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

South of I-70 and east of rt 17 you mean. Because it was complete shit out here for snow.

[adelphi_sky]

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Too early for me to grade the winter here with March still looming.  But to date it’s been another lackluster season.  I have about an inch more of snow than last year.  About 60% of climo.
I have enjoyed the consistent cold weather, but paying the electric bill has taken some of the fun out of that.  Some onion snow would certainly be welcome before March Madness and the start of baseball season.

Apparently if we are cold, we're dry and it snows to the south of us. When we're at normal temps, we get better chances of snow but battle mixing. When we have warm winters, it's rain and nothing. 

[Ephesians2]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Didn't that torch in February, though?

Not really. 

[Cobalt]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Didn't that torch in February, though?

It torched in December. Pretty sure if not for 2015, Dec 2021 would be the warmest at the 3 airports. That made a BN DJF average impossible, but January-April were pretty chilly as far as La Ninas go. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

If the PDO does indeed flip then if we get a Niño like last year’s then we could finally get the goods?

[dailylurker]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

Define lowlands. Because here I am below climo. @CAPE did much better than me to my far SSW.  Seasonal trend/outcomes sucked here.  

Lowlands are from the fall line to the Chesapeake Bay. The eastern shore is the flatlands.

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Lowlands are from the fall line to the Chesapeake Bay. The eastern shore is the flatlands.

Where are the shadowlands? 

[T. August]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll be tracking a window within a week imho. From what I see, another period of +pna/-epo is possible first 10 days of March and any "warmup" will be under a week. Last blocking collapse evolved into a -epo/+pna so there is precedence. Not the best snow pattern but it's March and things can be powderkeggy 

i wanna be done

[Bob Chill]

Just now, T. August said:

i wanna be done

It's a 100% optional hobby.... yea right, my eyes are extra brown lol 

Honestly, I don't even see a "warmup" of sig consequence. Meaning days of +5-10 strung along are something i see. My gut guess is it will take time to scour the incoming airmass even after the mids warm up. Then a messy period followed by a big storm out west that carves a transient -PNA. We'll be warm last week of feb but staring down a flip to a more typical pattern that can snow on us. Progressive but interesting. 

That's my call. Let's see what happens 

[Kmlwx]

Give me exciting weather. Even if it’s mixed bag or snow to rain, give me a dynamic system that weather weenies can be fascinated by. 

[dailylurker]

20 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Where are the shadowlands? 

That's where P-diddy is from. You don't want to go there. 

 

I have no idea lol. Probably the area just east of the blue ridge.