February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Anyway, HUGE change from 12z.   Went from no event to pretty decent for DC south.   we just need a 50-100 mile tick north to get the whole sub in on it

Is this a different wave that now is just showing up?  There seem to be quite a few riding that boundary in the next couple of weeks.

[CAPE]

GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

That gradient is quite tight. 

Oh my, you just @ravensrule's yourself right there!  Sent up your own bat signal!! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Is this a different wave that now is just showing up?  There seem to be quite a few riding that boundary in the next couple of weeks.

Might be the analfront thing the euro was showing.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Is this a different wave that now is just showing up?  There seem to be quite a few riding that boundary in the next couple of weeks.

Wave after Wednesday shifted north 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Waiting for systems to be inside 120 lol 

I mean..we're discussing weather models on a weather board.  I mean, I would hope nobody thinks this is a lock?

[ravensrule]

Just now, CAPE said:

GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.

That’s all we have today anyway. First Sunday in 21 weeks without football  . 

[stormtracker]

Ok, the 12th thing is approaching...lets see if CAD holds and saves us...because if not....

It's vastly different than the 12z evolution...slug of heavy moisture surging to our west and heading NW

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Might be the analfront thing the euro was showing.

Analfront’s are my absolute favorites, especially when you get 6” out of it. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, CAPE said:

GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.

Key take-away, at least for me, is that there will be several waves running along that boundary leading into the "good" mid-February into mid-March period that @psuhoffman and others alluded to.  Hopefully we can score on one or so of those, but it likely won't be really resolved way in advance.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Might be the analfront thing the euro was showing.

"This town needs an enema!"

[stormtracker]

Yeah, we're cooked for the 12 on THIS run.  We all know it's not worthy worrying about....or at least I hope folks do.   The fact that the signal is still showing up is good enough for me.

[CAPE]

The 12th looks great- for PA northward

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.

It’s consistent for Wednesday but you are sure that won’t happen 

[CAPE]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s consistent for Wednesday but you are sure that won’t happen 

Given the lack of support from other guidance, that's pretty worrying.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.

The Wed thing is perplexing.  I mean, other models show something frozen, but for like 5 minutes last I checked.

[LeesburgWx]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

DC is the new PSU land

That is the most west-east output I think I have seen 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s consistent for Wednesday but you are sure that won’t happen 

And the rgem went to the gfs so yeah 

[Maestrobjwa]

It's funny how you can logically know it's fantasy range still...but yet seeing a run with one wave missing you south (again) and then the next being warm and north can still annoying the heck out of you because of recent history 

[IronTy]

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

DC is the new PSU land

Checks out as far as im concerned.  

[midatlanticweather]

HAHAHAHAHA! @Ji What did you do?!

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

That’s all we have today anyway. First Sunday in 21 weeks without football  . 

GFS says we have football next Sunday.  It's been rock-solid on that one.  But the Euro doesn't care, they do soccer (and the Canucks do shuffleboard!)!!!

[Weather Will]

We are still going to need a little luck for a direct hit, at least the pattern puts us in the stadium.... much better than last year when the SER ruled, and everyone said put a fork in Mid Atlantic winters forever more.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Weather Will said:

We are still going to need a little luck for a direct hit, at least the pattern puts us in the stadium.... much better than last year when the SER ruled, and everyone said put a fork in Mid Atlantic winters forever more

The SER wasn't last year--I think you're thinking about the year before.

[North Balti Zen]

22 minutes ago, nj2va said:

DC is the new PSU land

LOLOLOLOL 

@Interstate

[T. August]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Wed thing is perplexing.  I mean, other models show something frozen, but for like 5 minutes last I checked.

Rgem is ok I think… although I just glanced and didn’t really look too hard.

[North Balti Zen]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

<taps mic>. Is this thing working?   Where the hell are you all?

Waiting for you to someday report a run that actually smokes the snow desert from 83 east to Havre de Grace...been a LONG time. 6 years, but swell run for...the usual suspects.

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The SER wasn't last year--I think you're thinking about the year before.

The SER definitely made multiple appearances last year.  It and Pack Puke basically took turns crushing our dreams 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The SER wasn't last year--I think you're thinking about the year before.

Was it not last year that the SER kept hooking up with the -NAO?  Or maybe it was just the -PDO at -5 standard deviation....

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Waiting for you to someday report a run that actually smokes the snow desert from 83 east to Havre de Grace...been a LONG time. 6 years, but swell run for...the usual suspects.

This is gettin' old, man. I'd revise that to Baltimore north and east to Havre de Grace! Now, I'd like to believe Feb wavelengths are gonna be better for us (even more for you) than Jan, but that could just be  logic, lol