wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: What are the chances we get another 2016 style storm before 2030? 37%-exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’ll get this out of the way its time for wholesale admission that 53 is and has been right. Models are crapshoot guesswork show all possible outcomes . Now here’s the solution -Stop using them. Dont pay for them. Contact the providers and demand improvement. Loss of income may get some attention The NHC does not do this crap. They derive a solution and try and stick with it rather than presenting 30 different outcomes 6 hours later. They have the science and tools . They likely have the far best funding also I cannot possibly imagine how the current mode of patchwork guesswork cover all bases is acceptable. Models aren’t the issue, it’s people trusting OP models outside 120 hours. Yesterday got us under that mark and boom they all started converging last night. They still identified the threat 200+ hours out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right but those waves had a flat suppressive flow over the top and no amplified cut off h5 low to their west to pump some ridging in front. I saw why those didn’t gain latitude. I don’t understand this one. BTW I’m not saying this should be a HECS it doesn’t really fit that either. The best comps I saw that surface and h5 match are kinda messy storms (like as in sometimes multiple waves or miller b) not the perfect bombs but they weren’t suppressed south of us. Surprising that this doesn’t help whatsoever with the UKIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It looks pretty dry and honestly, pretty boring after the Wednesday thing. We need to keep the rain train coming through spring. Can we get a thread for the Wednesday storm? It's not really LR anymore lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: It looks pretty dry and honestly, pretty boring after the Wednesday thing. We need to keep the rain train coming through spring. Can we get a thread for the Wednesday storm? It's not really LR anymore lol @mappysounds like a plan after Euro run, what u think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: @mappysounds like a plan after Euro run, what u think Let’s start it now, who wants the honors? Try and turn this bitch around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, DDweatherman said: Let’s start it now, who wants the honors? Try and turn this bitch around Let @Scraffdo it he had good mojo this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, konksw said: After this we transition to cherry blossom watch. Already on maple leaf watch (most of the buds have split into 2). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Let @Scraffdo it he had good mojo this morning. Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro out to 45, no remarkable differences yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I see we’re gonna let Scraff do it. I’ll bow out for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Just now, Terpeast said: I see we’re gonna let Scraff do it. I’ll bow out for a moment. Well, if @Scraff is here to start it now, he can. If not we’ll have to run euro through this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Just now, Terpeast said: I see we’re gonna let Scraff do it. I’ll bow out for a moment. Thanks brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:21 PM Surprising that this doesn’t help whatsoever with the UKIEI think the kicker and lack of ridge out west hurts any chance for amplification. I agree you look at the map you posted and you’d think a big event was forming, but it just stays neutral and rides E. Frustrating . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Why is it when it looks like we're about to get a sustained wet pattern over the past couple years it collapses at the last minute? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I see we’re gonna let Scraff do it. I’ll bow out for a moment. Someone do it l-you're the only one that has put anything . Keep going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:25 PM Just now, wasnow215 said: Someone do it l-you're the only one that has put anything Ok, 66. Western ridge is broader. Kicker a tick slower. TPV slightly stronger. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM 69, west ridge def taller. TPV trending stronger from past few runs. S/W SEer or maybe faster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Just now, Terpeast said: 69, west ridge def taller. TPV trending stronger from past few runs. S/W SEer or maybe faster Doesn’t sound awful to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Just now, Terpeast said: 69, west ridge def taller. TPV trending stronger from past few runs. S/W SEer or maybe faster is that good or bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:26 PM Just now, Terpeast said: 69, west ridge def taller. TPV trending stronger from past few runs. S/W SEer or maybe faster Come on talk dirty to us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM 78, confluence a tick NEer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Just now, bncho said: is that good or bad Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Just now, Terpeast said: NEer I like hearing that, even if it doesn't mean it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:27 PM 81, lght snow to m/d line, but looks like its gonna slide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM 84, its trying to tuen the corner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:28 PM Its more SE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Just now, Terpeast said: Its more SE More than 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:29 PM its an awful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:30 PM 93, still light snow. Definitely slid off SE moreso than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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