winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If gfs shows what icon showed im probably gonna stay away from this forum for a few days. Too nerve-wracking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Not high enough PM me. I can fix that lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, dailylurker said: PM me. I can fix that lol The dispensary is nearby if need be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, dailylurker said: PM me. I can fix that lol I just ate a perc sandwich, gonna go troll the Minnesota forum 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said: I just ate a perc sandwich, gonna go troll the Minnesota forum I got a morphine drip going. About to max it out here probably after the gfs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: If gfs shows what icon showed im probably gonna stay away from this forum for a few days. Too nerve-wracking lol If this one totally fails it’s almost spring anyway. Another or week or two and if nothing pops up we can start looking ahead to the first 70 degree days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The dispensary is nearby if need be No, @dailylurker has that good shit I bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: If this one totally fails it’s almost spring anyway. Another or week or two and if nothing pops up we can start looking ahead to the first 70 degree days. This winter of decent snow but constant missed potential but mostly wall to wall cold may result in speeding up my plan to move to Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, DDweatherman said: No, @dailylurker has that good shit I bet Yup. The dispensary doesn't give it away for free. They also don't use would class genetics and the best organic feed money can buy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Through 30, heights in the pacific are a bit higher. Stronger Aleutian low. Not seeing any big changes to the TPV from my dumb eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 lets put the drugs back in the cabinet. model time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Yup. The dispensary doesn't give it away for free. They also don't use would class genetics and the best organic feed money can buy lol I only use gummies anyway. Don’t smoke. Anywho let’s watch this gfs disaster unfold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Through 30, heights in the pacific are a bit higher. Stronger Aleutian low. Not seeing any big changes to the TPV from my dumb eye. You run with the pbp. Let’s try a new driver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Did anyone mention the 6z AIFS was a touch better? 0.5” precip line gets through DC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Once the gfs is out, the discussion about drugs can resume, both for models and individuals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 39, TPV's got a bit more energy held out to the WNW in Canada. Will that swing around and help our storm turn the corner, or kick it out? I'm too dumb to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Once the gfs is out, the discussion about drugs can resume, both for models and individuals. I've never done drugs... but after the model Rollercoaster this week I may start lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Did anyone mention the 6z AIFS was a touch better? 0.5” precip line gets through DC Discussed earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 At 45 still not seeing any big changes to TPV interactions, and while the heights are higher behind it they also seem a little further back, so not sure if it's gonna feel it. Not really digging any deeper. Energy maybe is a bit wider west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, winter_warlock said: I've never done drugs... but after the model Rollercoaster this week I may start lol I thought you’d start after your ex wife. Gfs is out to 42, little bit of positive change out west early, but unchanged for the most part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Still a day or 2 away from the best range but here's the analogs from the 0z run. Not bad not great. Hasn't wavered much. Once inside of d3, all ops look mostly the same so analogs become more accurate. 3 hours ago, CAPE said: 6z EPS I’m gonna die on this hill, I went through every single analog on that list, most of them I’d already identified yesterday and looked at, and not a single is even close to the h5 look we have this week. They must be using the surface heavily to identify these. Again I’ll use the GFS, euro is even more amplified. now here are some new analogs on that list that were big snows to our southeast, but look at the h5 track, way south of this week and a way more suppressive look up top. The differences at h7 are even worse. I’ve never seen a snow for southeast Va with a h7 low over PA. Which brings me to the best example at the mid and upper levels to this week on that analog list it’s not a good match but I said “best” match. The h5 track is at least similar but way way less amplifies. The result was a weak wave south that didn’t really give anyone much snow. Thats a believable outcome. But I still cannot find a single example of a h5 and h7 setup even close to this week they resulted in a southeast VA or Delmarva snowstorm. I ran the composite for all 8” snows for Richmond and Salisbury and the h5 min anomaly was centered on Atlanta. This week it’s centered around KY. That doesn’t even match the DC snow comp best, it’s the closest to the NYC storm comp. Something has to give here. Unless we really are going to see something that’s never happened before I see 3 possibilities. From least to most likely. 1) the guidance is going to adjust at h5/h7 way way south with those features (from a OH to PA pass to a KY to southern VA pass) and then a big snow centered down there makes sense. This is really unlikely given the degree of chance that requires. 2) Guidance is going to trend significantly de-amplified at H5 and there will be a more modest snowstorm to the southeast. This is slightly more possible. If the h5 ends up stretched out and not closed off up top a weaker but not totally insignificant wave can slide east under it and drop a 6-12” type snow to our south. That’s still a significant h5 change for this range but it as crazy as what’s needed to match the 10”+ southeast snow analogs 3) the surface adjusts. This is by far the most likely imo. The issue here is the surface could adjust in two ways. One it could adjust to a snow further north, like some of the ones on that analog list that actually do fit the h5 better. But I’m wondering given the seasonal trends and Nina of the most likely adjustment is for the surface to de-amplify into a weaker wave that becomes a minor (say 3-6”) type snow somewhere close to where the max is now. There are examples of very weak waves failing to get “captured” by a similar h5 or simply being too weak to gain latitude in this type flow and then hitting places like SE VA. So if this were to adjust weaker then the surface track makes sense What I can’t see is the mid and upper level pattern projected right now across guidance producing a 12”+ snow for SE VA or the Delmarva. Just like we look at the pattern comps for us to identify when that kind of storm is coming, this doesn’t fit the pattern comps for a big snow there. It’s not even close. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Okay at 57, maybe some positive changes. Higher heights out front, may have more room to turn. The TPV has more out west, seems better oriented to help us turn, even it it's not tied up enough to phase. Energy itself doesn't look much different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Light snow entering DCA 10am Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 At 63, looking off the Atlantic coast, might be very hard to get it to really turn the corner down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The TPV really hasn't interacted much and is backed off too west I think at 69. I don't think it's gonna get involved in a turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I want to say that it's a slightly better run from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think we've got high pressure in the wrong spot for this one. It's chasing this system out instead of helping to slow things down and reel in moisture off the Atlantic. As is, we might want an amped up southern stream and just hope we get clipped by the initial overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Light snow entering DCA 10am Wednesday Gonna be fairly similar to 06z I think - maybe a bit worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The gfs isn’t making friends this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I thought you’d start after your ex wife. Gfs is out to 42, little bit of positive change out west early, but unchanged for the most part. Nahh I just divorced her lol if ida stayed with her than ida done the drugs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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