Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, BristowWx said: I have to wonder at hour 90 if it would have slid straight ene…doesn’t matter it’s cold and snow. I’m not picky how we get it. Orientation was good, I believe it would have delivered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, it’s not so much a full phase that we were needing for a HECS, but its more like sending a spaceship around a planet where its gravitational pull tugs it closer to the track we want. When you post good things happen. I dig your analogies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Remember the dumbest models don't overthink complex situations...NAM and ICON for the win 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well, this continues the mantra I mentioned a few times yesterday about how delicate this setup is. There’s multiple ways to score, but also to fail and indentifying exactly how all pieces involved behave is going to take some more time before we can truly lock into something. The 00z ECMWF was a pause in the hemorrhaging that occurred the prior runs from other guidance. 06z kind of brought back the idea that was being entertained prior, so that signifies the delicate nature of the setup, as well as the 00z being more of a blip and not a trend. I do feel the best chance for a significant event is narrowing to east of the fall line all the way to the coast for our latitude. Further south into SW VA and @Bob Chill @Buddy1987 @wxdude64 land, the prospects for at least a solid WAA snowfall are increasing with every run. Should be a nice 850-700mb moisture transport into those areas with fresh arctic air in place. That’s a great spot to be in for at least something appreciable regardless of what transpires further downstream. Today will be another day I can see models deviating in either direction, so I’ll be taking these runs at less than face value and looking at the big picture. I figured 00z last night was the beginning of the end, but it was a small bump in the road and we’re right back to square one. NBM looked fine to my eyes. NAM (I know I know) looks like another way to score around here, so will be interesting to see if any other guidance shows a hand at that idea. I have my doubts, but NAM has scored coups before. It sniffed out the northern expansion of the 2016 blizzard into PA well before the globals did. Never know in this profession. Onward to 12z 17 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, it’s not so much a full phase that we were needing for a HECS, but its more like sending a spaceship around a planet where its gravitational pull tugs it closer to the track we want. If you put this Composite Radar loop in motion, you can see how the tpv over the midwest sucks the precip back NW. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Solution Man said: Orientation was good, I believe it would have delivered Anything is better than that CMC run last night. I shit a plushie after I saw that 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We win by a front end thump, and coastal development an ass hair west. Maybe 2 ass hairs west. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 For those in my DMs asking for place to stay in Richmond…the local news is reporting roads will be “treacherous” so please be safe on your drive down 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Ji said: Really disappointing. I thought we were making some progress 99% of the time the most extreme model in either direction won’t 100% “win” it will end up a compromise. Even the event today I used as an example of a euro v all win, the euro was “slightly” over amped and while it was a huge win it did come maybe 10% while all others came 90%. So when the most east models come west a little bit it doesn’t mean it’s a west trend across all guidance or that the more west models will also go west. It’s more likely just convergence happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: For those in my DMs asking for place to stay in Richmond…the local news is reporting roads will be “treacherous” so please be safe on your drive down I’m not even sure how much I want the snow now. I just hope you have to build an ark for your flood down there. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon back to dogwater run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Lol well the icon won't be making any friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RGEM is putrid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 WB 12Z ICON disaster...for all but the SE mid Atlantic. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Lol well the icon won't be making any friends. The differences upstairs at even 84hrs is comical. Completely a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I always thought we needed to get the current system out of here to set the table for the midweek system. May be 0Z tomorrow night before a solution is locked in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON disaster...for all but the SE mid Atlantic. The models are just f'ing with us now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Icon back to dogwater run I never liked the Germans anyway. Screw Canada. USA USA USA, for the next 30 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON disaster...for all but the SE mid Atlantic. 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: The differences upstairs at even 84hrs is comical. Completely a joke. LOL it literally pushed the purple-pink area of better snows like 100 miles southeast compared to its run 6 hours ago (06Z), and it looks drier even in that max stripe overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I am going with a blend of EURO/GFS and a dash of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, mappy said: We remember. I am sorry.. i see that there are some rules around this now.. I should have known. I am gonna get away from the computer for a while and get some exercise. Let’s see what happens later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: LOL it literally pushed the purple-pink area of better snows like 100 miles southeast compared to its run 6 hours ago (06Z), and it looks drier even in that max stripe overall. Richmond should start to worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We’re a few runs like that away from ‘congrats Atlanta’. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is by far the most rewarding hobby in the world. By far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I may have to eat my words about the NC jackpot haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Can’t use the Canadian model right now anyways, since they currently hate us and was booing the national anthem last night at the hockey game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, TSSN+ said: Can’t use the Canadian model right now anyways, since they currently hate us and was booing the national anthem last night at the hockey game. As they should 6 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is turning into a non event unless u live in southern Virginia. North Carolina lol. Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, jrodd321 said: This is by far the most rewarding hobby in the world. By far. You high?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: You high?? Not high enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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