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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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Just now, MDScienceTeacher said:

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor.  The models were showing warning level snow up until start time.  We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now.  the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air.  We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv.   Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro.  It literally went around us.  

image.png.eaab4f113a7a1d64ac3ee8b560443e67.png

 

This post = immediate ban. I don’t make the rules

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2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor.  The models were showing warning level snow up until start time.  We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now.  the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air.  We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv.   Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro.  It literally went around us.  

image.png.eaab4f113a7a1d64ac3ee8b560443e67.png

 

We remember. 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Friend, everyone on this board remembers. Some of us flew back early from Christmas travel to avoid travel problems…

Boxing day hit at the perfect time for maximum hope and dream destruction. Recency bias of the 2009-10 had us all overconfident lol. I was nearly certain it would work even when the wheels got loose in the short range. Nope, boxing day performed exactly like many of its predecessors. It's a big club and we ain't in it lol

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Boxing day hit at the perfect time for maximum hope and dream destruction. Recency bias of the 2009-10 had us all overconfident lol. I was nearly certain it would work even when the wheels got loose in the short range. Nope, boxing day performed exactly like many of its predecessors. It's a big club and we ain't in it lol

Thats the point I am trying to make.. there is a precedent for this fail mode.. my apologies for the graphic.  I can take it down.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the map of Jan 29-30 2010

image.thumb.jpeg.822a3b038c97d2a779631e3866fe99c1.jpeg

That was a great "little" event, which of course led into an amazing 2-week period of winter!  I remember that being pronounced dead not long before it was going to occur, then about a couple of days out, it got resurrected!  6" cold powder where I was at in Silver Spring, MD at the time.

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12 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor.  The models were showing warning level snow up until start time.  We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now.  the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air.  We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv.   Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro.  It literally went around us.  

image.png.eaab4f113a7a1d64ac3ee8b560443e67.png

 

We all remember this. You don’t have to tell us these details or post that map. We know.

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6-7” of champagne powder. Think ratios were legit 15:1+

I had to take my then 6 year olds (fookin 20 now lol) to a bday party in silver spring. It was snowing moderately and stuck everywhere immediately when we left. I knew then it was going to work. The party was awesome. A handful of parents were weenies so we just watched snow pile up and enjoy for 4 hours. Driving home was fresh tracks in a lot of places. Dry cold snow makes for easy driving. My yard clocked 7" iirc and being a reverse bust made the day unforgettable. 

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2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Latest guidance falls in line with the seasonal trend of everything south and east of the area. Delaware Beaches must be having a record run this year. What will this be the 3rd 12+ storm if this verifies?

Roughly that, although some of us around the area got a bit of a deformation band on the last storm that pushed us into the 6-8" range

1 hour ago, 21chuck said:

For Rehoboth area, I think they've had about 10 inches, then 5 inches, now this. Still ridiculous. 

Definitely highly unusual for this area. Weather gonna weather though, might as well enjoy it, because we'll pay for it someday I am sure.

1 hour ago, frd said:

Ensembles did well. GFS gets some credit. 

Last night folks were cra cra WTF. 

I still like my chances here. 

 

I really hope you can get a good hit out of this one

57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on TT or Pivotal. 

 

For you guys, I hope the rest and results don't match . That was a wonderful storm for me, but no one to share it with, the mood in here was downright funeral as I recall.

47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It might look like boxing day at the surface but unless my memory really sucks..... h5 is not a match at all so as depicted it's a similar result with a different setup. Jan 30 2010 is still the best analog imho

1/30/10 was a wonderful little storm that was collectively willed north by the combined willpower of the entire board lol. I remember each model run squeaking north 20 miles at a time.

18 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor.  The models were showing warning level snow up until start time.  We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now.  the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air.  We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv.   Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro.  It literally went around us.  

image.png.eaab4f113a7a1d64ac3ee8b560443e67.png

 

Thanks for sharing this map. What a painful cutoff.

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6-7” of champagne powder. Think ratios were legit 15:1+

Yes, that one was super easy to shovel/sweep. Beautiful storm, and who would have guessed it was just the appetizer 

7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

That was a great "little" event, which of course led into an amazing 2-week period of winter!  I remember that being pronounced dead not long before it was going to occur, then about a couple of days out, it got resurrected!  6" cold powder where I was at in Silver Spring, MD at the time.

 

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I had to take my then 6 year olds (fookin 20 now lol) to a bday party in silver spring. It was snowing moderately and stuck everywhere immediately when we left. I knew then it was going to work. The party was awesome. A handful of parents were weenies so we app just watched snow pile up and enjoy for 4 hours. Driving home was fresh tracks in a lot of places. Dry cold snow makes for easy driving. My yard clocked 7" iirc and being a reverse bust made the day unforgettable. 

I had to drive my wife over to John's Hopkins in Baltimore City oir her sister's surgery. As I was in the city Iand looking at the taller buildings, an absolute wall of white was descending from the sky.  As soon as it made it down, it was a solid lt to moderate snow falling. You've probably seen it with the mountain behind you. But it was especially cool because I  was in the street at the base of the buildings watching it drop.

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1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Just looking at 6Z euro on TT, if I just woke up from a one week coma and saw that I’d be really pumped.  You can still see it does a pivot with precip shield 6Z-12Z Thursday.  This will not take a lot of work whatsoever to get this back to a big event for everyone in our sub. 

This! I couldn’t really finish reading last nights train wreck. Fresh start to the day though. I have a good feeling we’re coming back to some juicer solutions. 

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