February Medium/Long Range Thread

[wasnow215]

Can someone post ensembles please?

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I think there could still be some adjustments. Maybe enough interaction-albeit late- such that the low slows down some, allowing better moisture transport further NW.

Ensembles did well. GFS gets some credit. 

Last night folks were cra cra WTF. 

I still like my chances here. 

 

[Buddy1987]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than some op eye poppers, I never saw much evidence for a big/classic storm. The term big ones sniffed out early also includes ops showing big solutions over and over. We really only had a mid range pocket of solutions that did that. For every big run there was a scary one and analogs never stacked up with big solutions. Hard to ignore that and remain grounded in reality lol. 

This storm does seem primed to dump a foot on someone. Small area like the last one. Overall snow shield is much larger this go around. I'd like to think it makes a lot of people happy but I'm second guessing that lol. 

I need the positive Bob Chill from yesterday, who pushed his chips all in on 3-6” bare minimum. 

[TJ3]

Wasn’t planning on going to Rehoboth for this  one.  But might as well. Need to check on the place anyway. DFH and snow is still a good thing. 

[Wonderdog]

40 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Putting aside the HECS hope ..that looks pretty good for some of us.  Won’t be warm or sleety.  Today is salvage day

We can still energy out double figures. Still time.

[Buddy1987]

I reread every post from last night. Epic posts were had. Some of the highlights included clskinsfan going full meltdown mode, my fav post of all talking about how a goose in Kansas farting would change the track on the gfs and then Randy just coming out of a dark alleyway at 4am ish asking what he missed! Weather will drive you absolutely bananas but sometimes the posts in here are pure comedy. 

[BlizzardNole]

Not gonna be an ogre in the obs thread as I get 2-3 like the last two events -- got parents and sister in northern Calvert (Owings/Huntingtown) and I'm gonna crash one of them   I'm almost tempted to go to Salisbury but that means finding a place

I went to Calvert for the Jan 30, 2010 event that was expected 1-2 here and 8-10 there, and they ended up with 8 and Germantown got 7   The the storm shifted north right at game time.  Maybe that happens again?

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I need the positive Bob Chill from yesterday, who pushed his chips all in on 3-6” bare minimum. 

Buddy, I'm 100% all in on 3-6". I'm only referring to expecting 13-16" lol.  

Front side WAA has performed well up and down the EC this year. Juice comes easy to waves that tap the gulf. This will be no exception. It's going to be a very efficient storm with minimal waste. .3-.5 qpf will lay down 3-6" with ease imo and right now, the risk is upside and not down. 

[Ji]

Still sort of feels like this is a delicate situation. I wouldn't expect anything dramatic now but shifts in either direction are certainly still on the table. It does feel like SE of here is pretty well established though

What’s your number

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

31 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

How does this happen.  Five days ago, I said its a rug pull and I wouldnt let my self get pulled in again.. I am hopeless.

And I dont want to hear the crap about setting expectations or how 6 inches of snow is great or how we werent going to get a HECs to begin with.. I dont want to hear it.  Because I have news for you.. the fringe is looking boxing day-ish.  there I said it.  And I dont think I can take another day of snow tv while sitting on an winter storm warning  for 6-12 inches... waiting for it to accumulate as someone to our south is getting 20 inches of snow.   The impossible happened.  for the first time in model history (ever) the GFS was right and every other model was wrong.  

The atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do.  The only thing that’s changing is computer simulations.  Chasing the model simulations is only fun if you don’t take them too seriously.  

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

What’s your number

For Aldie I'm still in range mode not quite sure about a single call. 3-6" with an upside of 8" bust is 1-2"

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

What’s your number

I have lots of numbers
Right now my depression is at a 7/10
My bafflement is at a 9/10
I have an over under of 5" of snow
 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

For Aldie I'm still in range mode not quite sure about a single call. 3-6" with an upside of 8" bust is 1-2"

To hit climo, I would need at least 3”

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

To hit climo, I would need at least 3”

The gem is the only one that skunks us so I bet we get to 20" for the winter.

[mitchnick]

6z AI is turning it into a hybrid Miller B of sorts. It does give snow to the forum with the most east. Eastern shore does best, of course, but it's hard to figure qpf west of the Bay on the Euro site. The 0z gave mby .2" and south of Baltimore .5" with more south and east. This run looks to do a little better, but you'll need to wait for TT to get more exact qpf. Unfortunately, it hooks the meat of the storm around the MA and is now hitting ENE. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI is turning it into a hybrid Miller B of sorts. It does give snow to the forum with the most east. Eastern shore does best, of course, but it's hard to figure qpf west of the Bay on the Euro site. The 0z gave mby .2" and south of Baltimore .5" with more south and east. This run looks to do a little better, but you'll need to wait for TT to get more exact qpf. Unfortunately, it hooks the meat of the storm around the MA and is now hitting ENE. 

Still evolving it sounds like 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI is turning it into a hybrid Miller B of sorts. It does give snow to the forum with the most east. Eastern shore does best, of course, but it's hard to figure qpf west of the Bay on the Euro site. The 0z gave mby .2" and south of Baltimore .5" with more south and east. This run looks to do a little better, but you'll need to wait for TT to get more exact qpf. Unfortunately, it hooks the meat of the storm around the MA and is now hitting ENE. 

I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on TT or Pivotal. 

 

[Ji]

Let’s get a storm thread going. Maybe that can help

Feel free to delete mine

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on TT or Pivotal. 

 

That was on Ji's analog list lol 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on T or Pivotal. 

 

I just checked, it looks much better than its previous runs to my eyes. We’ll see how it looks on the other sites. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I just checked, it looks much better than its previous runs to my eyes. We’ll see how it looks on the other sites. 

It might look like boxing day at the surface but unless my memory really sucks..... h5 is not a match at all so as depicted it's a similar result with a different setup. Jan 30 2010 is still the best analog imho

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I just checked, it looks much better than its previous runs to my eyes. We’ll see how it looks on the other sites. 

It does. It appears to be an extended period of at least light snow for many in the forum and mod/heavy on the Eastern shore and se.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It might look like boxing day at the surface but unless my memory really sucks..... h5 is not a match at all so as depicted it's a similar result with a different setup. Jan 30 2010 is still the best analog imho

Well, like I said, it's different in a big way because it does get snows in the Metros and suburbs. But it's similar in the sense that the heaviest is in an arc around us to the south, se, and east.

[CAPE]

Latest blend still looks good for many.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend still looks good for many.

The way the last 24 hours has gone I’d take that in a heartbeat and run!

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

6z EPS

 

Amazing how steadfast the seasonal trend and snowfall distribution has been to date.  

How we get there might vary in each snowfall , weak low, fast Northern jet, overpowering PV, etc. 

I like to be hopeful, as you mentioned previously, maybe things improve enough by say 50 miles or more to get the higher totals shifted more NW during the next 48 hours. And, please not the other way.  

 

 

 

[wtkidz]

1 hour ago, concentricEye said:

Really good write up from LWX regarding subtle pattern changes that have led to less phasing in recent runs. Threading the needle rarely works in everyone’s favor.



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...Looming Wednesday-Thursday Winter Storm Threat Yet to be
Fully Resolved...

The focus of the long term period continues to be on an East
Coast winter storm threat and its potential impacts to the Mid-
Atlantic region. For the better part of the last week, ensembles
have been hinting at the potential of significant snow around
February 20, though there are some trends in the last 48 to 72
hours worth noting.

For mid week, upper-level pattern/ensemble mean 500 hPa height
trends the last couple of days have been for (1) a somewhat
weaker northern stream upper low descending into the northern
Plains, and (2) a weaker West Coast/Rockies ridge likely due at
least in part to a stronger and faster shortwave progged to be
approaching the Pacific Northwest. It appears these trends
reached a critical threshold in the 15/12Z guidance suite, with
a bimodal distribution among varying ensembles slightly favoring
less meridional flow and a more offshore surface low track. This
pattern shift, if it verifies, would allow the southern stream
shortwave to not be fully caught as quickly by the slightly less
amplified northern stream upper low, with less phasing resulting
in the further southeast/offshore track. The trend was most
obvious in the EPS (ECMWF ensemble) and MOGREPS-G (UKMET
ensemble), which showed a southeastward shift in the axis of
highest snowfall probabilities. The trend persisted through the
15/18Z cycle, and appears to have stabilized a bit in the 16/00Z
cycle (though with some -increasing- spread).

Interestingly, some machine learning guidance (i.e. the
GraphCast GFS and ECMWF-AIFS) had been showing this offshore
track potential for several days now. However, their latest runs
have trended a bit to the northwest (closer to the coast),
perhaps indicative of a stabilizing or even reversal in trends.

Also of note, although the highest probabilities for 6- and
12-inch plus snows have shifted southeastward for the time
being, probabilities for 2 inches of snow remain elevated. This
suggests that at least some snow is highly likely (probably with
the passing northern stream upper trough/low even in a less
amplified scenario).

It is important to note this trend, but also the continued
variability and likely future shifts in the track. Despite the
shift in ensemble means and the rather low amounts of snow
locally in the 16/00Z CMC and UKMET deterministic, the ECMWF
deterministic remains steadfast in solid warning level snow for
much of the region. The recent GFS and ICON deterministic also
indicate a high likelihood of warning level snow for at least
roughly the southeastern half of the CWA.

Given the amount of cold air, moisture, and energy present, the
potential for a significant winter storm still exists and needs
to be closely monitored. But, the exact details of how this all
unfolds remain unclear this far in advance.


.

That says it all. Sit back and see how it plays out. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend still looks good for many.

 

I would love that,  and the cold temps as well.  Maybe with omega threes and CoQ10 I can last until we get the next 12 inch snowfall here. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It does. It appears to be an extended period of at least light snow for many in the forum and mod/heavy on the Eastern shore and se.

0.5” line through dc sw to ne. Foot+ eastern delmarva. Was a tick west from previous run

[MDScienceTeacher]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on TT or Pivotal. 

 

Right.. and I dont know if many people remember but boxing day had a WSW for 6-12 inches along the Baltimore Washington Corridor.  The models were showing warning level snow up until start time.  We were on the fringe then and we are on the fringe now.  the biggest issue with boxing day was Dry air.  We had 8 hours of virgo followed by 8 hours of snow tv.   Also, boxing day hit the tidewater epically hard, went our to sea and then turned the corner, retrograded and hit NYC metro.  It literally went around us.