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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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Just now, TSSN+ said:

Yikes ya that’s one city I don’t really want to visit for any reason. Love Pittsburgh though. 

I go there all the time for Ravens games and have been there for O’s games. Never had an issue, very nice people. 

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Just now, ravensrule said:

I go there all the time for Ravens games and have been there for O’s games. Never had an issue, very nice people. 

Pittsburgh? Ya nice city and cool fans. Love me some Primanti bros. 

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EPS was a pretty notable improvement. stronger ULL and less confluence

Yessir. Tough suite tonight overall but glad to see the euro improve under the hood vs 18z. It’s in its wheelhouse right now and as PSU pointed out, it schooled most other guidance wrt today’s storm at this range. Doesn’t mean this can’t still fail, but at least the bleeding stopped.

By tomorrow night the storm will be over the CONUS, so hopefully things become clearer (and snowier) by tomorrow’s 00z runs
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32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe instead of looking at how it did at 120hrs, see what the storm moving so far North means with regards to the future.. we have a real shot at thunderstorms tomorrow. The warm sector of this storm is awesome!  They say swings happen and "nothing is impossible" but the somewhat slight flex of -pna here today is for a flatter, and possibly slightly north, following storm..

I agree with your point about a flatter wave possibly, but my main point is I looked through trying to find any examples of a significant snow to miss us to the southeast like that from a closed H5 low tracking through OH and southern PA like all guidance has...and couldn't.  Every snow to miss us southeast like that had a much further south H5 track and a more suppressive flow over the top. 

So...either this trends way weaker and misses south, or it probably has to come north if its anywhere close to as amplified a wave as guidance has now, because the upper flow is not right for a big southern VA snowstorm.  Its either a weak washed out wave that slides south, or if its amplified enough to be a big snow it will end up further north. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with your point about a flatter wave possibly, but my main point is I looked through trying to find any examples of a significant snow to miss us to the southeast like that from a closed H5 low tracking through OH and southern PA like all guidance has...and couldn't.  Every snow to miss us southeast like that had a much further south H5 track and a more suppressive flow over the top. 

So...either this trends way weaker and misses south, or it probably has to come north if its anywhere close to as amplified a wave as guidance has now, because the upper flow is not right for a big southern VA snowstorm.  Its either a weak washed out wave that slides south, or if its amplified enough to be a big snow it will end up further north. 

Yeah it's amazing that models can miss things like that at that range, but I've seen it a number of the times in the last few years. N. Hemisphere larger 500mb pattern likely wins again, I was saying to see a deep coastal low riding up from the Gulf we probably need a NE Pacific trough, which is a actually a weak high pressure right now, and goes with what you guys are saying about how hard it is to a MECS in La Nina.. the pattern is actually a +NOI, or +NPH (North Pacific High), which is in part a circulation of La Nina. 

https://ibb.co/DfGZyQjg

https://ibb.co/gLrqM6cz

I wouldn't be surprised if Richmond may have p-type issues honestly. 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI a little better. Just needs to come west 75-100 miles.

The graphics on the Euro site are not good enough to post, but when it comes out on TT or other commercial site, you'll see what I'm saying. It's probably close upstairs. 

Are you up for the day already?. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We still looking good tho right? I’m sure the UKmet and GFS hit us good.  Can’t wait for this epic HECS coming. I’ll just check the models before I hit the hay.  

Hit us like Mike Tyson used to hit before he bit off Evander Holyfield’s ear. 

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3 hours ago, ravensrule said:

It’s only snow. It’s nothing compared to real life, health and family. So we get skunked, it’s annoying but nothing in the grand scheme of life. 

People are posting too much. I'm a snow lover too but can't get that emotional about it. It's just cold pressed water that lays around.

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1 minute ago, Miss Pixee said:

People are posting too much. I'm a snow lover too but can't get that emotional about it. It's just cold pressed water that lays around.

But the sledding and snowball fights are still fun even at 32. I've never tried sledding in 20 inches of snow though.

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16 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

But the sledding and snowball fights are still fun even at 32. I've never tried sledding in 20 inches of snow though.

During Snowmageddon 2010, my Hill of Doom got a workout.

Some of the sliders had to be stopped before going off the plateau and go down the next steep and try to crash into I-395.

 

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