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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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Man the Euro is always stubborn. 

It’s also very much in its wheelhouse 4 days out. NAM surely isn’t… but it shows a similar progression at h5 between hours 48-72. Don’t get me wrong… I’m discouraged by the fact that the Canadian gfs and ukie were dog shit… but 2/3 of those models kinda suck
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Out of curiosity… how many people gamble? I am a snow fan yes, but also a  gambler, which I think sort of skews my perspective on this hobby… so I’m curious to see if there are any others out there.

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Didn’t DT once say, you don’t bet against the 2 E’s? (The other E was ETA, which is now NAM, for those that don’t know)

That "EE" rule has been around for a while.. And we've seen it play out a number of times. Truth is the NAM (ETA) sucks as a model. It has no actual accuracy that is better than other models when with the Euro.. the NAM at 60+ hours is usually more ampled/NW, and that models usually trend this way in general is where the rule comes from. That and the Euro's accuracy. 

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It’s also very much in its wheelhouse 4 days out. NAM surely isn’t… but it shows a similar progression at h5 between hours 48-72. Don’t get me wrong… I’m discouraged by the fact that the Canadian gfs and ukie were dog shit… but 2/3 of those models kinda suck

I usually never look at the ukie. The Canadian is utter garbage and gfs struggles with complex storms so really it’s gfs vd euro
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I usually never look at the ukie. The Canadian is utter garbage and gfs struggles with complex storms so really it’s gfs vd euro

Precisely my point. I mean don’t get me wrong.. I’m skeptical as hell about the euro’s outcome given seasonal trends, but it’s also THE model people shouldn’t ignore, especially in its bread and butter range. Perhaps I’m wishcasting. If it caves tomorrow, we’re likely cooked.. but for now.. not all hope is lost for at least some snow out of this.
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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro does not make huge jumps from run to run. Where did it jump in the past 12 hours? It is falling in line with everything else.  WE NEED THE WAA.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

Might need to see 12z tomorrow just to make sure that's happening. I will say that 0z looked better than 18z to my amateur eyes.

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18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Anyway, euro on its own right now. Has it ever been alone at 4 days out and won in the end?

It kinda did up in New England this week.  I was watching because there was a chance I was going up there to ski this weekend with the kids.  Earlier this week there was a point when the IKON, AI, GGEM and GFS were all showing snow with a track closer to the coast.  The Euro was more amped and NW with freezing rain and sleet getting all the way into northern VT.  Eventually all the other guidance came around.  Oddly after it did they then had a couple runs where they would go back to a SE solution before coming back NW again. 

Looks like the Euro had the right idea.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.thumb.png.a715fb0fea3a84b79bd0bdfe969d3c63.png

But this is just one example...and a different setup.  Usually when the euro is totally on its own its wrong, but over the years its more right in that setup than any of the others. 

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Weenie me all you want @ravensrule It took a huge step towards the rest of guidance. A big SE hit. If it even has that in 18 hours. 

I know you love my weenie, let’s see what happens in the next 36 hours. Then if warranted you can freak the fuck out and I won’t weenie you. Deal?. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

This is great. We need to set up some kind of calling out the weenie posters 24 hours later on this site. Euro is caving BIG TIME. 

You’re being weenied because of the time you’re saying this. The storm is still 96 hours out and you’re positive it’s over, that’s just stupid. 

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