February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

That strong of a snow mean this far out gives me 09-10 vibes. Those events were picked up well into the LR for that time


.

Yep. This is incredible for our area when there isn't a HECS pending.

[DarkSharkWX]

When's the last time we saw a mean like this? W/o a coherent threat

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

When's the last time we saw a mean like this? W/o a coherent threat

Wowwww

[WxUSAF]

Yeah without snark, a 7-8” mean AND median for MBY with it basically all after D7 is bananas.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That strong of a snow mean this far out gives me 09-10 vibes. Those events were picked up well into the LR for that time


.

Well, I'm ready to find out.  I'm a believer.  Hopefully we can pbp on like Wed 

[SnowenOutThere]

46 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hooooly... the median is over 6".

Might have some fun individual members if you want to post those maps  

[DarkSharkWX]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Might have some fun individual members if you want to post those maps  

[RDM]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Wowwww

Indeed 22 members show 9" or more for IAD, 12 showing 12" or more.  Amazing. 

[psuhoffman]

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

P30 for me and I'm good for 5 years.

[bncho]

59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the 24hr median at 10 days is almost 2"... unbelievable confidence in something. The Jan 6th storm didn't appear on the 24hr median til ~wk out.

I'm going to be happy with my February 12-13 BECS.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's a chilly President's Day. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

along with tons of precip

[bncho]

DC has a decent chance to double their snowfall this season just in the time period of Feb 12-16.

[LeesburgWx]

If this comes to fruition, I cannot wait to go dig up the posts from 6-8 months ago punting this winter in favor for next year lol

[WxUSAF]

Half of those handful of eps members that skunk us have more snow to our south lol

[stormtracker]

42 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

That's nuts

[mitchnick]

AI has the 12th with a good hit but not a lot more other than light snows at the start before changeover. 

[Ji]

Well, I'm ready to find out.  I'm a believer.  Hopefully we can pbp on like Wed 

I’m getting the this is too good to be true vibes lol. We have been burnt so many times but I am hopeful.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’m getting the this is too good to be true vibes lol. We have been burnt so many times but I am hopeful.

Thru 2/15, if I  can get at least one 6-10" event imby plus a few more lighter events, even if just an inch or 2 before or after a changeover, I'll be happy. But ensembles do suggest we'll do better than that. 

I think there will be more beyond 2/15 for sure unless modeling does a total aboutface. 

[WxUSAF]

Weeklies mean snowfall through D46 is 15-20”. YMMV on verification.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's nuts

We need the @Bob Chill shock-face, looking at some of these plots!

[bncho]

What an astonishing signal for the February 11-14 timeframe on the EPS:

[JenkinsJinkies]

California is getting an atmospheric river and we're not torching.

[IronTy]

59 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

If this comes to fruition, I cannot wait to go dig up the posts from 6-8 months ago punting this winter in favor for next year lol

You heard it here first that this winter was gonna be epic.  I think I can win the snowfall forecast comp if this is as good as advertised.  

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Half of those handful of eps members that skunk us have more snow to our south lol

So...do we look at the more snow south solutions the same way in February as we did in January? I'm also not entirely clear on what you all mean when you say "shorter wavelengths".  Does that mean waves that make the weather, so to speak are literally shorter in length as winter goes on? Shorter and more dynamic?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...do we look at the more snow south solutions the same way in February as we did in January? I'm also not entirely clear on what you all mean when you say "shorter wavelengths".  Does that mean waves that make the weather, so to speak are literally shorter in length as winter goes on? Shorter and more dynamic?

Shorter wavelengths is, paradoxically in this case, referring to the longwave pattern. In mid-winter, there might be as few as 3-4 wavelengths around the globe at our latitude. As spring approaches, that number increases and hence the wavelength is shorter. 

[psuhoffman]

 Feb 16-March 20

[stormtracker]

55 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’m getting the this is too good to be true vibes lol. We have been burnt so many times but I am hopeful.

I felt that way before the early January thing.  Kept waiting for the bottom to fall out.  Models showed that SOB on like December 29th and turned out to be right.   I'm still scared waiting for a rug pull, but every day I'm becoming more convinced.  

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

P30 for me and I'm good for 5 years.

I'm liking P36 myself, lol.