clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The roi in this hobby is miniscule when you really think about it. Yep. We are all just weenie model watchers. Imagine having to actually give forecasts to millions of people at 4 day lead times and saying there is a really good possibility of a big snowstorm. Only to have these runs come out. I dont envy a Mets job at all. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Do we ever have a storm that shows little/no snow four days out… but then turns info a legit snow storm? Does that ever happen!?Why is it seemingly always the reverse?. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gefs actually trended wetter (snow hole notwithstanding, that’ll probably be gone next run) i said that a bit ago but it was actually wetter and snowier than 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Well 00z UKIE will be a hit of some kind tbh looking at 96 and 120 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Just made a bet with my sister that if the Ukmet caves and shows a storm under 10 inches she has to buy me a stuffed plushie and vise versa so I’m switching teams now. I have mixed feelings about this now 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Gefs actually trended wetter (snow hole notwithstanding, that’ll probably be gone next run) Yeah that map doesn't look so bad east of Parrs ridge. I just don't know if I believe it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 96 and 120 SLP 00z UKIE maps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, yoda said: that looks pretty east if based on where i saw that low in florida....we need that to be way more NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: the reward is the snowmaps we saw along the way Lol. The 20 minutes of Euphoria a good model run provides before the next model crushes our dreams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. We are all just weenie model watchers. Imagine having to actually give forecasts to millions of people at 4 day lead times and saying there is a really good possibility of a big snowstorm. Only to have these runs come out. I dont envy a Mets job at all. Communication is so crucial in this profession. Especially in uncertain situations. I think most of the time, the experts are pretty good with this, saying "there is a possibility of a major storm", which leaves open the possibility of an utter rug pull like we're now seeing. But others have made some major mistakes - John Bolaris for example spent days hyping March 2001 so bombastically that he never lived it down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah that map doesn't look so bad east of Parrs ridge. I just don't know if I believe it. Well the snow mean is only 2-2.5”. Drier for us, wetter for the Tidewater area. Also, the gefs individual members just about spell game over. There are only a few that have snow north of DC. A lot of Canadian-like misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Trash model be trash GFS was the trash model yesterday, now it's smellin like a rose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 96 and 120 SLP 00z UKIE maps Its gonna pop in FL based on those maps. We'll see. But I think it is a step towards the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 At 42, UKIE seems to be continuing the trend of less TPV interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hope Cantore bought the travel insurance. 2 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 96 and 120 SLP 00z UKIE maps Hard to tell with 24 hour intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concentricEye Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just a reminder— the sky was falling for everyone last night and we wound up having some great runs thereafter. I’m not saying this one’s coming all the way back NW but I’ve seen enough windshield wipers at a 4 day lead to know it’s too early to throw in the towel. . 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So we just don’t get the H.A. event this time?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 alright, I’ve snapped out of it. Reframed my expectations to a 3” storm. Let’s see if the UKIE and EURO say I need to lower those 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, concentricEye said: Just a reminder— the sky was falling for everyone last night and we wound up having some great runs thereafter. I’m not saying this one’s coming all the way back NW but I’ve seen enough windshield wipers at a 4 day lead to know it’s too early to throw in the towel. . Thing is the closer we get the better the models get. You have to remember that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, clskinsfan said: Thing is the closer we get the better the models get. You have to remember that. I’m drinking, i can’t remember anything. I’m just waiting for the Euro to roll in with my 8”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: alright, I’ve snapped out of it. Reframed my expectations to a 3” storm. Let’s see if the UKIE and EURO say I need to lower those 3 inches is more than enough…been saying that for years. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: alright, I’ve snapped out of it. Reframed my expectations to a 3” storm. Let’s see if the UKIE and EURO say I need to lower those Think 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukmet a total miss for dc metro . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 UKIE is a weak pos. We have big issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukie with less amplification and phasing compared to 12z. Won’t be CMC bad but… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, BristowWx said: 3 inches is more than enough…been saying that for years. 3” of cold powder is like 3” with a seasoned professional… it might be better then 5” in a normal situation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: 3 inches is more than enough…been saying that for years. Does she agree with you?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukie misses DC like the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Terpeast said: Ukie misses DC like the CMC Okay fine I’ll lower my expectations to 1” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Honestly. This is a legendary model collapse. This shit will be studied for decades. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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