Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I didn’t want to say anything, but AIFS verification scores have been beating both op gfs and cmc Wow. That fact alone is staggering to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m now convinced snowfall means on ensembles are useless. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ji said: These models have been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 actually 00z gfs is back to its snow map from 6z this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: Not to be dramatic, but that's just fking embarrassing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: God have mercy on anyone's soul who stays up late tonight solely for the EURO. I am up sipping Chivas 18 year anyways. I will be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, nj2va said: I’m now convinced snowfall means on ensembles are useless. This is all pretty useless outside day 3 to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This one will be a tough pill to swallow if it doesn't come back. Nothing really look promising on the horizon. 6 inches sounds real good right now. These fantasies chasing 18 inch plus storms get exhausting. There's a reason why they rarely occur yet we try to convince ourselves we live where there suppose to frequently occur. I keep thinking back to right before winter when someone maybe PSU posted that snowfall history in this type of la Nina and there was a massive hole right over our part of the Mid-Atlantic. With that being said still plenty time for a reversal to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 DROUGHT..... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Well, that went in complete reverse. TPV interaction went from partial to…”what interaction?” on the CMC. GFS trending backwards even more so for the S/S wave and interaction with the TPV is pretty awful. Now THAT is concerning. I’m not giving up hope, but man oh man, that is a step in the wrong direction to start the 00z suite. We’ll see what the UK and EC bring to the table because if they hold serve, then it’ll be a medium range model war. Damn When will the shortwaves be over the conus and better sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, TSSN+ said: These models have been awful. Paging Howard. Paging Howard! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Ji said: But isn’t a lot of that from today/tomorrow in the early runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’m now convinced snowfall means on ensembles are useless. To be fair to the modeling the only ens that came on board was the euros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well, that went in complete reverse. TPV interaction went from partial to…”what interaction?” on the CMC. GFS trending backwards even more so for the S/S wave and interaction with the TPV is pretty awful. Now THAT is concerning. I’m not giving up hope, but man oh man, that is a step in the wrong direction to start the 00z suite. We’ll see what the UK and EC bring to the table because if they hold serve, then it’ll be a medium range model war. Damn The ss wave just can’t seem to gain enough latitude. It’s getting chased ots instead of phasing and lifting north. Not sure what causes that, but it always seems like a yellow flag for this area to have any kind of GL low, kicker, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I feel like after what I just witnessed it’s hard not to buy into JI’s theory about the least snowiest model always being the one that ends up correct. Pretty wild. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: It's a shame in a way, would be fun to experience. I was into weather as a kid, but didn't get online until PDII. So glad I'm not old enough to really remember that. I'd rather find out now than later, though. Still time to change. This hurts for sure. Yeah it was around 2002 when I really started tracking the weather. PDII was amazing. But I'm glad I didn't really keep up with this in March 2001 because I would've probably cried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’m now convinced snowfall means on ensembles are useless. I seriously never want to see a 14 day snowfall mean posted again. Showing like 17" on a mean and we will end with 1" and isn't the first time. Spotting great patterns is one thing, getting said pattern to produce takes miraculous intervention. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m now convinced snowfall means on ensembles are useless. I mean... the GEPS and GEFS, especially the latter, were never really sold on this even when their parents gave us the 20" hits. The EPS' likely failure is disappointing. I considered that the gold standard. Clearly the ens aren't dispersive enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am up sipping Chivas 18 year anyways. I will be here. Oh good. This should be fun if the UK and Euro go to shit. Keep drinking. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looking at all aspects of this developing east coast low, there appears to be wide variability left in play with over 96h to go, therefore I believe a considerable change in final appearance is likely. Whether that works in favor of a larger snowfall event or a totally OTS ending cannot be known yet. One way back to a better event (for DC-BAL) is a deeper 500 low, at present it only drops to 528 which is probably too weak to draw the low into a phase before 70W. If that trends stronger, this can be salvaged. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This one’s happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 the GEFS is actually way jucier at 00z in general for the storm that 18z in SEVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, mappy said: This one’s happening? How much for Northern MD?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah it was around 2002 when I really started tracking the weather. PDII was amazing. But I'm glad I didn't really keep up with this in March 2001 because I would've probably cried. I was one of the go to weather people in HS at the time. Let's just say I was "out sick" for the next two days after hyping it up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I seriously never want to see a 14 day snowfall mean posted again. Showing like 17" on a mean and we will end with 1" and isn't the first time. Spotting great patterns is one thing, getting said pattern to produce takes miraculous intervention. Honestly I wasn’t even referring to that situation. The 24H ensemble mean snowfall on EPS was showing 6-10+” across the area yesterday. If this does fail, that’s a pretty terrible ensemble performance that close in. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Oh good. This should be fun if the UK and Euro go to shit. Keep drinking. I think I have been more level headed than usual tonight brother. I didnt beat my laptop with a hammer when the GFS ran. I just accepted our fate. We need the WAA. What's gonna be left of it anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: When will the shortwaves be over the conus and better sampled? The S/S vort will be in the CONUS late tomorrow into Monday. I don’t see that as the issue. The TPV evolution is the issue now. Too much separation with the waves and there’s nothing to bring it north. They all showed some interaction earlier which is why I wasn’t concern. Now it’s a mega flip to little wave interaction until it’s way too late. Tough break 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: The ss wave just can’t seem to gain enough latitude. It’s getting chased ots instead of phasing and lifting north. Not sure what causes that, but it always seems like a yellow flag for this area to have any kind of GL low, kicker, etc. TPV interaction went the complete opposite direction. Favorable to potentially no interaction and more of a deterrent. We’ll see if this is a true flip or a weird blip. Definitely not what we want to see for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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