LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If we fail, I hope everyone fails south of us. Make this thing the weakest POS wave possible. The constant rug pulling has been rough this year. I’m ready for spring. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh now guidance is trending towards a believable south fail. A weak wave that’s not a big snow for anyone. I just didn’t think that’s where it was heading. Even the misses were clobbering SE of us. But if it ends up a weaker system with no significant 8”+ snow anywhere that actually makes more sense. I mean, in your defense originally you felt the most realistic outcome in this window based off seasonal trends and climo was a 2-5" type. Again, much respect to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 this is going to one of those 18 inch to 0 inch storms---its never 18-9...its always to zero 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Weenie handbook page #247.. storm disappears 96hrs out only to come back stronger than before and reel us all back in. This is actually possible. A weaker HP and a stronger vort and we are still in the game. But I seriously doubt the models have it that wrong at 4 days lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 One thing this storm threat taught us, the euro Ai model is fucking legit. As pissed as I am to say that. Really bad winter up here in Philly, maybe even top 10. Yea we had some events but we were teased with good patterns that couldn’t produce and close calls.Can’t control it, move on. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Short of a turnaround never seen, Gfs beats the Euro too. Gfs vs the world and gfs wins 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 164 folks in here witnessing winter 2024-25's last gasp 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Now watch the euro show 10” of powder over the dmv 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 how is this failing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 this is going to one of those 18 inch to 0 inch storms---its never 18-9...its always to zeroModels never go from no/little snow to legit snow storm. Always large amounts of digital snow to busy. It is uncanny. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Weenie handbook page #247.. storm disappears 96hrs out only to come back stronger than before and reel us all back in. 15 years ago maybe. Models are better now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, 87storms said: Now watch the euro show 10” of powder over the dmv I honestly think it might just because it would be such a legendary cave if it goes bad all at once. Slow bleed out, what we all deserve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Ji said: this is going to one of those 18 inch to 0 inch storms---its never 18-9...its always to zero March 2001 vibes but at least we get a 4-day warning this time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Now watch the euro show 10” of powder over the dmv It'll be fugly in here if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well, that went in complete reverse. TPV interaction went from partial to…”what interaction?” on the CMC. GFS trending backwards even more so for the S/S wave and interaction with the TPV is pretty awful. Now THAT is concerning. I’m not giving up hope, but man oh man, that is a step in the wrong direction to start the 00z suite. We’ll see what the UK and EC bring to the table because if they hold serve, then it’ll be a medium range model war. Damn 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, AlexD1990 said: It'll be fugly in here if it doesn't. Well don’t count on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, AlexD1990 said: 15 years ago maybe. Models are better now. Yeah we aren't getting a January 2000 surprise ever again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I honestly think it might just because it would be such a legendary cave if it goes bad all at once. Slow bleed out, what we all deserve It has been bleeding all day though. Bet it looks similar to the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: One thing this storm threat taught us, the euro Ai model is fucking legit. As pissed as I am to say that. Really bad winter up here in Philly, maybe even top 10. Yea we had some events but we were teased with good patterns that couldn’t produce and close calls. Can’t control it, move on. . I didn’t want to say anything, but AIFS verification scores have been beating both op gfs and cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: March 2001 vibes but at least we get a 4-day warning this time. Yeah March 2001 was like finding out Tuesday night that it's all falling apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 CMC is a miss, I’m out for the year, cya in 8 months unless some miracle happens mid march. 3 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How much for Richmond? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Heisy said: CMC is a miss, I’m out for the year, cya in 8 months unless some miracle happens mid march . Lol. That's awful. Last night cmc had widespread 20" totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Short of a turnaround never seen, Gfs beats the Euro too. It won this week's storm too It never wavered from a central Va west to east jack, it wound up being a bit too far south (Richmond) but the Euro was jacking northern Va and MD for awhile there.... Not trying to make a prediction for this week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: CMC is a miss, I’m out for the year, cya in 8 months unless some miracle happens mid march . DM me if you want to catch a warm sunset during one of our 100 degree stretch heat waves this summer. We can sip infused water and reminisce about the great Feb 20 debacle and share some laughs and tears. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, deer said: we were literally discussing a storm thread like 12 hours ago Maybe Randy should have unlocked Ji's.....:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is actually possible. A weaker HP and a stronger vort and we are still in the game. But I seriously doubt the models have it that wrong at 4 days lead time. To be fair, 12 hours ago was also 4 days lead time and the euro icon and gfs all showed a foot plus. But yeah, if this thing hasn’t improved come 00z runs tomorrow night, we’re likely headed for another advisory to low end warning event. Unless the cmc is right… cause then we’d be left with nothing but our weenies in our hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How much for Richmond? Richmond gets deez nuts. Nothing more. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Maybe Randy should have unlocked Ji's.....:) This all went to shit once Jesus appeared to Randy and offered him that Tomahawk steak. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah we aren't getting a January 2000 surprise ever again. It's a shame in a way, would be fun to experience. I was into weather as a kid, but didn't get online until PDII. 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah March 2001 was like finding out Tuesday night that it's all falling apart. So glad I'm not old enough to really remember that. I'd rather find out now than later, though. Still time to change. 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Lol. That's awful. Last night cmc had widespread 20" totals. This hurts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now