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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We need to bring the DGEX (REJEX??? LOL!!) back!!!  Which was essentially an extrapolated NAM!

We really need the cras back. That model almost always gave us eternal hope. Nailed the Boxing Day Storm too. It deserves to be brought out of retirement. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

We really need the cras back. That model almost always gave us eternal hope. Nailed the Boxing Day Storm too. It deserves to be brought out of retirement. 

Actually I think the CRAS sort of got that Jan. 30, 2010 event right, pushing some of the heavier snow farther north?  I think that's what gave it some undue "fame" back then.  Oh and you're not supposed to state that day after Christmas storm by name...like Voldemort, you can't call it out directly in these parts!!  LOL!!!!

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We want a miller b hybrid actually...without the wave into the TN valley the coastal initiates too far southeast...its rare for us to get a big snowstorm from that trajectory.  Would take a really crazy capture phase.  If the initial wave along the arctic front has a little more amplitude it causes a further north transfer and tucked location of the coastal off the mid atlantic and we need a less extreme interplay with the NS and STJ to get this to work.  

*Contemplates how many times 'Miller B' and 'screw job' have left western VA in a shadow........*

Even a hybird can create a 'hole' in western VA/eastern WV depending on how far the transfer occurs.

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37 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I worked that storm and if you look at the 500h it was a lot different than the projected storm.  It had a much stronger southern stream trough displaced farther south than this one.  It was a cold event and one where the models were late in forecasting it to come far enough n to hit DC. 

Remember that well. It was on the heels of the Thursday, January 22 1987 storm. It was also Super Bowl Sunday, Sunday, Jan 26th. Broncos vs the Giants, SB21. Started snowing late in the AM and was heaviest during the evening. 

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4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

*Contemplates how many times 'Miller B' and 'screw job' have left western VA in a shadow........*

Even a hybird can create a 'hole' in western VA/eastern WV depending on how far the transfer occurs.

I feel like with the low getting going a little later off the coast “damage” will be done already with the wall of moisture that will traverse over us. Anything additional from the coastal is gravy.

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Symphony was really good. Support your local college art programs ya'll. Looks like 18Z Euro took a step toward the GFS to me. It is more amped though. Not gonna complain about 7 inches of snow. But not really liking the progression I am seeing for my area. Is what it is. 

Awesome! Which symphony did they perform? (And which college?)

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2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Remember that well. It was on the heels of the Thursday, January 22 1987 storm. It was also Super Bowl Sunday, Sunday, Jan 26th. Broncos vs the Giants, SB21. Started snowing late in the AM and was heaviest during the evening. 

If I remember right this area out here got two 20" snows back to back.

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12 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Remember that well. It was on the heels of the Thursday, January 22 1987 storm. It was also Super Bowl Sunday, Sunday, Jan 26th. Broncos vs the Giants, SB21. Started snowing late in the AM and was heaviest during the evening. 

I remember it because my car got stuck 2 blocks from my house and these 3 guys came out of nowhere and pushed me out of the 10-12" of snow in the road between the storm a few days before and that storm.

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8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Actually I think the CRAS sort of got that Jan. 30, 2010 event right, pushing some of the heavier snow farther north?  I think that's what gave it some undue "fame" back then.  Oh and you're not supposed to state that day after Christmas storm by name...like Voldemort, you can't call it out directly in these parts!!  LOL!!!!

Oh, this storm? My son was just under a year old. 

FB_IMG_1739675788144.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

ICON is a disaster for central northern MD

IMG_5371.png

^^ This is a 'classic' Miller B look for my area, deeper snow to central Wv, a skip over us then heavy again once the coastal gets cranking. I'm not complaining, just know how it will go if this is the outcome. Someone else's turn to get large numbers lol.

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I remember it because my car got stock 2 blocks from my house and these 3 guys came out of nowhere and pushed me out of the 10-12" of snow in the road between the storm a few days before and that storm.

You unmodified back to factory that close to the house?

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh, this storm? My son was just under a year old. 

FB_IMG_1739675788144.jpg

Cute photo!!!

Dec. 26, 2010, correct?  That's the "storm that nobody names" here in the DC area, we got zip from that while areas south of here and not far north got anywhere from a good amount of snow to a near HECS!  I was actually visiting my parents up in Philly at that time for Christmas in 2010, and left the morning of the 26th because Philly was looking at getting pretty well hammered and I wanted to avoid driving in that.  I think you all got 12"+ in the Philly area?  (Depending on where in the city...my parents are in the Society Hill area, near South St.).

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