February Medium/Long Range Thread

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro has some bullshit that’s frozen north of central PA

You looking at the storm at the 14th? That one is cutter city

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mitchnick said:

No maps for the 2-5" event? 

[Heisy]

No maps for the 2-5" event? 

Sunday, and then the anafront few days later





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[frd]

Just now, Heisy said:

Sunday, and then the anafront few days later





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Wonder is anafront sets up the next event . 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I wish I hadn't asked.

[Heisy]

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[Heisy]

I wish I hadn't asked.

Yeah I left out “s sections” haha but regardless it trended better for frozen for that time period


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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I wish I hadn't asked.

So we got a smaller event around day 8 and a bigger storm around day 10….wow this is escalating quick.  What happened to everyone saying we have to wait til March and that the daffodils are coming lololol?

[frd]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That will not do.         For me  

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It’s kind of a 2 parter which gfs is advertising, overrunning out ahead of the main trough. We’ll see how that evolves since it’s in fantasy land. Fun times ahead.


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This type of CAD setup has my attention: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2025020212&fh=276

[CAPE]

Euro with an insane h5 look at the end of the run

[stormy]

There has been a lot of hyperventilating during the past 24 hrs. after I asked a simple question, how does this winter feel different?  Common sense answers this question, but I had a reason for asking.  I hoped to hear an onslaught of shouting about how cold it has been!!

Thank you Lord!

Some have even suggested that I must be in blind denial of how cold it has been. Wow, what a joke! I have been paying close attention to the weather and climate longer than most in here have been alive.

For the past 1 - 4 years I have been trying to say that all of this often repeated nonsense about "the elephant in the room" is just that. PSU tried to convince everyone that we have warmed so much that we would soon have to move north to ever see snow again.   He has his opinion and I have mine. Unfortunately, many believed his tirades.  Have a good afternoon PSU, we're still friends.

The 1950's were benign with snow-drought seasons. In February of 1958, the door opened to a 12 year period of cold and snow. Has that door opened again?  I doubt it but this winter has certainly been a big change from recent years.

Looking forward to the next 10 - 15 days with the GFS and lesser degree ECMWF.  I want to see the big 3 in general agreement of a significant event at 192 - 216 hrs.  A lot will depend on where the boundary sets up.   Interaction between the NS and SS looks to create an unsettled period at 10 - 20 days but we are still a few days away from any reliability regarding expectations.

I well remember a year ago this month when everyone was super hyped because of EPS expectations for late February into March.  We all know how that turned out.

 

 

 

[stormtracker]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro with an insane h5 look at the end of the run

An east-west oriented avocado! Very...Squishable!

[CAPE]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

An east-west oriented avocado! Very...Squishable!

h5 avocado with Barney at the surface

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

h5 avocado with Barney at the surface

[North Balti Zen]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gross 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

equals
snow

[bncho]

Absolutely DISGUSTING snow mean from the EPS.
This is hour 282, AMAZING

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Sunday, and then the anafront few days later





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Warm north then suppressed south? Nah bro, lol

[brooklynwx99]

absolutely obscene EPS run. 3 sigma block right over the pole

[CAPE]

 

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absolutely obscene EPS run. 3 sigma block right over the pole

 

Now that's some HL blocking right there

[NorthArlington101]

hooooly... the median is over 6".

[NorthArlington101]

the 24hr median at 10 days is almost 2"... unbelievable confidence in something. The Jan 6th storm didn't appear on the 24hr median til ~wk out.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the 24hr median at 10 days is almost 2"... unbelievable confidence in something. The Jan 6th storm didn't appear on the 24hr median til ~wk out.

The overall signal for a winter storm in that timeframe has been notable to strong on the means for a few days. Impressive.

[bncho]

EPS snow members for DC:
3/50 (6%) show 20+"
10/50 (20%) show 12+"
26/50 (52%) show 6+"

REALLY FUN TIMES ARE AHEAD
 

[WxUSAF]

Sounds like -PNA torch? Nina Feb climo?

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sounds like -PNA torch? Nina Feb climo?

Next winter will rock! 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sounds like -PNA torch? Nina Feb climo?

semi permanent Nina base state

[Heisy]

That strong of a snow mean this far out gives me 09-10 vibes. Those events were picked up well into the LR for that time


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