wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion. 2/83? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe...but that just looks like an artifact of a slightly higher pressure generating the H on the map but its really just an extension of the high back in the plains the axis of which is the same as the 0z run. You would think a 1050 high moving south would begin to pop a southeast ridge pushing our storm northwest towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Some snow is todays I mean the snow in PA and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, North Balti Zen said: two gummies in, sailing, and the lyrics from this Strings jaunt that just played seem on point for this forum/thread/storm threat... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That book fucking rules. Kidz need to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 When do we get into extrapolate the NAM territory (kidding, kinda) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Some snow is todays Not here. This is the MA sub dude. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Guidance is either going to come around and support your thoughts over the coming few days OR you are going to refer to your log and insert a new chapter or section about more unprecedented storm behavior in this modern clime. Hypothetically, why would that instance go in the logbook? It's not like "too warm" would be the issue if that were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Some snow is todays Great we got 0.02” here today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it is...except the storm IS blowing up, thats how its putting down so much snow just southeast of us. Like I said...I can buy a SE miss because the wave got flattened out and was just too weak. There are examples of that. There are several in that analog set a page back. But what you don't see in an analog set to this setup is some 10-20" snowstorm to our southeast because that means the wave did amplify, but didn't come north which makes no sense in that flow. Actually back to a point I made 2 days ago...what I see on that H5 map is that the whole focus of this storm should be the wave along the arctic boundary...the one that puts down 12" in Missouri. That is where that H5 says the wave should be and not having that die out in favor of a wave so disconnected with the upper low. A stronger wave in the TN valley would change the whole dynamic on the coast...further north transfer and closer track of the coastal. That H5 track argues a stronger primary into the KY area. And as @Terpeast said actually it argues we have to worry about too much primary and a track north of us just looking at that...I think in this case the 1055 high and cold helps mitigate that threat some. But south? SOUTH? Hope these retorts don't come off hostile, I'm enjoying the dialogue. And if this does fail I better at least learn something from it. But I think the models are missing something here. You are our only hope out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I mean the snow in PA and NEGood thing this is the mid Atlantic forum then. Ya know, south of the Mason Dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: You would think a 1050 high moving south would begin to pop a southeast ridge pushing out storm northwest towards the coast. Surface hp wouldn't spike the ser to that extent. We are talking mid levels wrt to that teleconnection. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji I'm going to do something that makes me feel icky and dirty... quote (or in this case paraphrase for copyright reasons) JB. He just posted that in this pattern we should be more worried a storm comes straight up the coast not OTS. Also pointed out the confluence zone is up in Canada, and shout out to you, pointed out what you did about the 18z euro actually trending better at H5 but somehow east at the surface. The silly part...said the GFS and Euro are suffering from feedback...I swear he just says that anytime the models don't agree. I think they are in error but that's like a easy button cheat code thing to say. But I actually agree with the rest of it. UGH whats happening to me. once you hit the JB ensemble.....it means you are on your last resort. I think at Accuweather, they used to edit is grammar...now its just a disaster as i noticed when i read his posts today. I havent read him in a long time but its hilarious he still uses feedback when things dont go his way. JB is a great met in snowy winters. Lets hope you and him have the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hypothetically, why would that instance go in the logbook? It's not like "too warm" would be the issue if that were to occur. It all works together to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 feels like the 12z Canadian ran 25 days ago 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: It all works together to some degree. Yeah but how in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiseeker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ji said: feels like the 12z Canadian ran 25 days ago It did… it was just the 12 Canadian from 25 days ago… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not here. This is the MA sub dude. Some of that snow at the North Pole is from today just FYSA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion. That’s one of the more gawdy NBM runs at this lead you may ever see. To get that kind of result, you have to have some significant members within the blend, ensemble and deterministic. That is wild 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Good thing this is the mid Atlantic forum then. Ya know, south of the Mason Dixon The map showing snow in PA and in New England is misleading. In reality almost all the snow there falls today so the storm for Thursday is still SE of the area. I’m hoping this trends NW as well but just pointing out the snow may includes totals to the north west and NE that are falling now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 27 minutes ago, mikem81 said: what are we specifically looking for for the ULL and anything else the next few Runs? This... wanted to illustrate what I expect to see from this setup We see the duel wave structure here. The STJ wave down in the Gulf and the wave up in the TN valley which is along the arctic boundary ahead of the upper low. There should be more energy and amplitude with that TN valley wave. It doesn't have to be a lot...a few MBs makes all the difference here. We would see heavier precip also along this frontal boundary associated with that wave in the TN and lower OH valleys. Then... With that wave a little stronger, not a ton but enough to cause more southerly flow ahead of it and pull the coastal front that is the focus of the STJ wave a little further north...so the transfer of energy point is going to be further NW closer to the VA Capes. Then a stronger storm moves more NE v ENE from there. That is what that H5 is telling me the surface should look like. Hopefully this isn't just weenie wishcasting but I really am basing this off years of being used to what an h5 setup typically produces. But again...sometimes things don't do what they "should". But I'm still expecting to see this adjustment. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The euro really was better at 18z wrt the ULL being more amped and it looked slightly better out west. Hope to see that trend continue tonight so we can get back to our regularly scheduled MECS programming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion. As of right now I see a lot of similarities to the 1/25-26/1987 NESIS storm. Very cold storm. I lived in Owings Mills then and we got 6. Probably was only around 4 up here where I am now. This upcoming storm looks to have a much broader precipitation field with much less chance for a sharp cutoff like in the 87 storm. Better upside for all involved with next week's storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but how in this case? That's above my paygrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I know u didn't ask me, but it does get N and isn't suppressed. The problem is the kicker pushes it all too far east before it can begin the move to the N. At least that's the way I am seeing it. Up top looks fine....weakening block. 50/50 progressing along and confluence where we like it. I am convinced that vigorous kicker is the culprit. Without that kicker it comes N sooner. Eta: kicker, not licker. Fixed typo stupid screen protectorThe kicker is mucking it up more than people think. Yea the confluence is stronger on newer euro runs and that’s probably mainly why it’s trended SE, but that kicker doesn’t allow the shortwave to really have time to develop down S. One good thing there is maybe that shortwave isn’t being sampled perfectly yet since it’s farther out in time. I’ve been riding the Ai all winter, it’s been lock steady outside those 2-3 runs where it was really OTS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 28 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @psuhoffman I feel like this specific storm feels overly convoluted. If I’m understanding correctly does the kicker not affect the WAA as much for areas in the southern forum, thus not having to rely on the coastal blowing up or am I misinterpreting this? The WAA ahead of the whole wave is kind of baked in and you are far enough south it would be really hard to miss that. For places further north we need some amplification of the wave to gain latitude. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The kicker is mucking it up more than people think. Yea the confluence is stronger on newer euro runs and that’s probably mainly why it’s trended SE, but that kicker doesn’t allow the shortwave to really have time to develop down S. One good thing there is maybe that shortwave isn’t being sampled perfectly yet since it’s farther out in time. I’ve been riding the Ai all winter, it’s been lock steady outside those 2-3 runs where it was really OTS .Go back to older runs which were really tucked and see what it did with that second wave . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, HighStakes said: As of right now I see a lot of similarities to the 1/25-26/1987 NESIS storm. Very cold storm. I lived in Owings Mills then and we got 6. Probably was only around 4 up here where I am now. This upcoming storm looks to have a much broader precipitation field with much less chance for a sharp cutoff like in the 87 storm. Better upside for all involved with next week's storm I seriously thought @87storms was going to pull this out at some point. I too saw the resemblance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 In 1 day we went from this to that lol. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I seriously thought @87storms was going to pull this out at some point. I too saw the resemblance. He's too busy living the basketball life! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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