gymengineer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That analog list kind of backs up my point. There are a few SE misses...but because they were really weak sauce waves not some 16" snowstorm. The March 2016 storm for example...yea it missed because the wave was a pathetic pos that didn't give anyone more than 2-4". Some of the Spring storms are hard to apply because they happened after the thermals had deteriorated such that there isn't much we can take from what would have happened in a colder regime. The rest were either DMV area Jacks or storms that Jacked just north of us. I counted 7 that were 4”+ for parts of this sub forum- what I think you’re referring to as the DMV jackpots. 3 had 10”+ amounts (I didn’t count the 1/19 date because it was too far in date from 1/12-13/19). But only one, 2/06, was a megalopolis storm. That storm as most of us know was very significant, though, as it reached NESIS Category 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Going down with the ship as any respectable captain would. I admire this! Keep sailing high and proud on the S.S. PSU2. Regardless how it transpires you win....you called this 4+ weeks ago. Much respect sir. it would be bittersweet to call a big mid atlantic snowstorm a month out then have it crush Richmond and fringe me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Good read man…maybe one day you drop the bullshit you known for and play a better role like this. Like 20 years in man about time to grow up Why is this troll still posting on here? Every post he makes is designed to attack someone or stir shit up. 4 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Keeps getting better lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'll say it again -- I find it interesting that in the Richmond top snowstorm composite, the 500mb trough in the Southeast, US was the 4th strongest 500mb anomaly in the N. Hemisphere. That is so interesting, because it's a 20 day-analog composite of picked-and-choose analogs of Richmond centered snow. So what that tells me is we need those other N. Hemispheric anomalies to really hit. The -NAO extending to the Hudson bay is a big hit -- but the one missing is a <-100dm anomaly off the west coast. At 500mb, there is even a NW, US trough in the Richmond-snowstorm-map! This time we have a slight High pressure off the west coast, meaning that the East Coast trough may not dig as far south, and the wave may be more progressive vs something that really bombs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Fascinating reads last couple pages for sure. @psuhoffmanHow bout comps where RVA and DCA get comparable snow totals where both get double digit snows? How many of those? BTW was at the SB parade yesterday. Such a great day! Almost every scenario like that is a January 2000 type storm which isn't very applicable to this setup. It's really difficult for Richmond and DC to both jack from a SW to NE wave like this. Would have to be a crazy large snowfall distribution. That 1980 storm came really close...JUST south of DC got a lot, I posted that above. Again the H5 was tracking much further south than this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: A 'SE miss' isn't the same as places relatively further SE forecast to get somewhat higher amounts of snow, which is what the preponderance of current guidance is depicting. Ofc current guidance may not be completely correct about that and some adjustment NW can still occur. I don't waste hard drive space remembering specific bad storms but I always thought a SE miss was a whiff north of EZF and flurries in Wes' yard at best. The infamous VA Beach shellacking with broken clouds in the DMV is another one. If the majority of the sub gets accum snow, it's not a miss or a whiff in my book. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: A 'SE miss' isn't the same as places relatively further SE forecast to get somewhat higher amounts of snow, which is what the preponderance of current guidance is depicting. Ofc current guidance may not be completely correct about that and some adjustment NW can still occur. I was looking for storms where the jack zone was Richmond to Delmarva area (similar to what the miss solutions are showing right now) and all of the storms I used did deliver some snow to the whole area...Most still got 6" or so back to 95 and a lesser type storm the further NW with like 2-5" where I am. I was trying to see if this pattern fits the composite for a storm like the ensembles are hinting at...a 12" type storm for those places and a lesser storm 95 west. That just wasn't what I found. I looked at about a dozen storms and didn't see any like this. Doesn't mean there aren't any, I didn't look at every storm to ever hit that area of course. But this would not be a common H5 for a storm with a snow swath that far southeast. That typically featured a H5 path across southern VA or NC. Then when I went looking for analogs with a cutoff H5 over the upper midwest tracking through OH and MD or PA, most of the storms were actually NW of 95 jacks. That's just what I found. So "confused" describes my attitude towards the guidance. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I counted 7 that were 4”+ for parts of this sub forum- what I think you’re referring to as the DMV jackpots. 3 had 10”+ amounts (I didn’t count the 1/19 date because it was too far in date from 1/12-13/19). But only one, 2/06, was a megalopolis storm. That storm as most of us know was very significant, though, as it reached NESIS Category 3. I was glad to see it on that list because it was one of the storms I identified with a somewhat similar progression when I gave examples earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @Ji I'm going to do something that makes me feel icky and dirty... quote (or in this case paraphrase for copyright reasons) JB. He just posted that in this pattern we should be more worried a storm comes straight up the coast not OTS. Also pointed out the confluence zone is up in Canada, and shout out to you, pointed out what you did about the 18z euro actually trending better at H5 but somehow east at the surface. The silly part...said the GFS and Euro are suffering from feedback...I swear he just says that anytime the models don't agree. I think they are in error but that's like a easy button cheat code thing to say. But I actually agree with the rest of it. UGH whats happening to me. 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Warm pattern setting up in the medium-range.. Feb 20 is probably going to be our last wintery threat for a while. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Warm pattern setting up in the medium-range.. Feb 21 is probably going to be our last wintery threat for a while. at least its a +PNA lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji I'm going to do something that makes me feel icky and dirty... quote (or in this case paraphrase for copyright reasons) JB. He just posted that in this pattern we should be more worried a storm comes straight up the coast not OTS. Also pointed out the confluence zone is up in Canada, and shout out to you, pointed out what you did about the 18z euro actually trending better at H5 but somehow east at the surface. The silly part...said the GFS and Euro are suffering from feedback...I swear he just says that anytime the models don't agree. I think they are in error but that's like a easy button cheat code thing to say. But I actually agree with the rest of it. UGH whats happening to me. JB is due for a stellar call. I recall the early 2000's when only he nailed a storm to come North, ( think he followed the Canadian model ) it did and caused massive snows in our area. The JB index is at a ATH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Warm pattern setting up in the medium-range.. Feb 20 is probably going to be our last wintery threat for a while. Bro, read the room 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, frd said: JB is due for a stellar call. I recall the early 2000's when only he nailed a storm to come North, ( think he followed the Canadian model ) it did and caused massive snows in our area. The JB index is at a ATH. I used to correspond with him quite a bit through email when I was a meteorology student at PSU. To be fair he was really nice, responsive, willing to help when I knew next to nothing, and was very informative. Which is maybe why I took it so hard when he went full tilt cray cray (or sellout if its all just an act) and become what he is now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: at least its a +PNA lol Yeah, with the MJO. Scandinavian ridge is building another -NAO bout potentially in the long range, but the +QBO/Weak Nina impact on the Stratosphere has been strong this Winter -- it's been hard to sustain a -AO with such a cold 10mb layer. It's actually been a surprise we've had so many -AO periods, but they generally aren't sustainable with such a fast flow in the upper atmosphere. Fits the seasonal trend of late - we are getting -NAO's, about average to even slightly above average, but they are in continuum less than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Another miss on the AI. Here's how it does it. Basically the tpv becomes a wrecking ball and just drops in too fast and is big. Scroll forward from this spot. It's the only 500mb map worth anything from the AI. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502151800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I know I am beating a dead horse some here, I'm sorry, but do me a favor...humor me here... @Terpeast @Bob Chill @CAPE @WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 Just step back and look at this... (18z EPS) and tell me...is "oh no that might get suppressed" really what pops into your head? What am I missing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Richmond's 20 greatest snowstorm days since 1948, based on the Feb 20 date. Pretty close to the current projected pattern.. 3 troughs Pacific-US-Atlantic around a -NAO, ridge extending into the Hudson Bay.. That difference off the West coast (ridge vs trough) could be a reason why it will be a flatter storm, vs a more S->N amped one. I would double check the dates, I don't recognize a few of them like 4/5/1980. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] I'm going to do something that makes me feel icky and dirty... quote (or in this case paraphrase for copyright reasons) JB. He just posted that in this pattern we should be more worried a storm comes straight up the coast not OTS. Also pointed out the confluence zone is up in Canada, and shout out to you, pointed out what you did about the 18z euro actually trending better at H5 but somehow east at the surface. The silly part...said the GFS and Euro are suffering from feedback...I swear he just says that anytime the models don't agree. I think they are in error but that's like a easy button cheat code thing to say. But I actually agree with the rest of it. UGH whats happening to me. I could see this system being further west if there’s more phasing since the high isn’t exactly parked over Quebec, though I still think this system has the most potential further northeast. The NS just doesn’t seem diggy enough for our latitude…at least for now. I think by 12z tomorrow the goalposts are gonna tighten enough that we’ll have a better idea of where the greatest max potential is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Pivot guys. A foot is now the goal. If we can’t get there, so what? Accumulating snow is going to happen. We don’t live in New England. Regardless of what happens, this will probably be our biggest snowstorm to date. It’s all relative fam. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I would double check the dates, I don't recognize a few of them like 4/5/1980. You're right -- it's 1/4-5, 1980. https://www.glenallenweather.com/upload/richmondclimate/richsnow/GreatestSnows.pdf Here's the fix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know I am beating a dead horse some here, I'm sorry, but do me a favor...humor me here... @Terpeast @Bob Chill @CAPE @WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 Just step back and look at this... (18z EPS) and tell me...is "oh no that might get suppressed" really what pops into your head? What am I missing? Without looking at the surface and just by these maps, I’d worry about it missing me to my north 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Ji said: I am going to get destroyed for saying this but the 18z euro was a better run. The kicker was better..the 500mb was better...consolidated and not as stretchy...it was just a hair off in the phasing Your account has clearly been hacked. I’m resetting the password to it. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know I am beating a dead horse some here, I'm sorry, but do me a favor...humor me here... @Terpeast @Bob Chill @CAPE @WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 Just step back and look at this... (18z EPS) and tell me...is "oh no that might get suppressed" really what pops into your head? What am I missing? I know u didn't ask me, but it does get N and isn't suppressed. The problem is the kicker pushes it all too far east before it can begin the move to the N. At least that's the way I am seeing it. Up top looks fine....weakening block. 50/50 progressing along and confluence where we like it. I am convinced that vigorous kicker is the culprit. Without that kicker it comes N sooner. Eta: kicker, not licker. Fixed typo stupid screen protector 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Without looking at the surface and just by these maps, I’d worry about it missing me to my north Thanks for affirming I'm not crazy (at least not for THAT reason) or at least humoring me lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I know I am beating a dead horse some here, I'm sorry, but do me a favor...humor me here... [mention=2515]Terpeast[/mention] [mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] [mention=1005]CAPE[/mention] [mention=51]WxUSAF[/mention] [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] Just step back and look at this... (18z EPS) and tell me...is "oh no that might get suppressed" really what pops into your head? What am I missing?Is that a kicker system in the Rockies as our storm moves east? The trough moving through out there. Maybe that’s what’s getting in the way of a full blow up? admittedly not great at deciphering 500mb maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Is that a kicker system in the Rockies as our storm moves east? The trough moving through out there. Maybe that’s what’s getting in the way of a full blow up? admittedly not great at deciphering So it's not just me seeing that? That feature has been a thorn in my side since this threat surfaced. Not allowing the pna to spike more, it just plows thru the damn ridge. A vortmax on a mission....to crush east coast weenie dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So what about the high in Indiana nudging the low too far east on the 18Z? Not there on the 0Z tucked low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for affirming I'm not crazy (at least not for THAT reason) or at least humoring me lol I feel like that oughta be on a T-Shirt...and distrubted to everybody here, lol But seriously...what could be the disconnect here? Is a storm just gonna magically defy what's going on at that level? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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