DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: It is...but this all clearly moved South East a bit. We await 0z! I actually don’t hate the low position up to about 105-108, would expect a little better shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, DDweatherman said: I actually don’t hate the low position up to about 105-108, would expect a little better shield I actually thought the same thing. Either convective feedback along the gulf coast or it truly is robbing advection of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 feet for Pocomoke River State Park. Nice place. Might have to chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Compared to 12z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This is what happens when you all start asking for a new thread. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 At this rate, RIC is gonna have to worry 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS heads south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I actually thought the same thing. Either convective feedback along the gulf coast or it truly is robbing advection of moisture. The LP never consolidates on this run, it has a dual low structure the whole way from GA out past the benchmark area. Not a met, no idea what to make of that, but looks weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Easy to say right, but I would expect the GFS to produce a better outcome than it did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 the GFS is not south--the track seems fine. Just drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, snowfan said: Congrats lower ES. There is a literal wall of Arctic HP to our N and NW leading into this event. The baroclinic boundary is suppressed to the south. Seems like some here are overlooking basic meteorology. The low will develop and track along the thermal boundary, and so it isnt surprising that places further SE are favored for the heaviest snow. The ens mean across guidance are literally screaming that this is the case. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At this rate, RIC is gonna have to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So frustrating that we can't hold run to run changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Compared to 12z At this rate OTS on the GFS. Northern jet been screwing the forum in a big way the further North you are. This is an ongoing issue. Again, don't get invested as this is a very delicate storm outcome. Ensembles have guided the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Cannot believe I’m at regionals finals for swim tonight and just read 5 pages of Icon discussion 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Still a long way to go. This run is fine. On a side note I guess this Stormy character is a troll? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: The LP never consolidates on this run, it has a dual low structure the whole way from GA out past the benchmark area. Not a met, no idea what to make of that, but looks weird Convective feedback 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The andrea doria might get more snow than us Edit: clown post, bro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Ji said: the GFS is not south--the track seems fine. Just drier are you some sorta clone of ji because u arent doing a good job at imitating him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I honestly think we want the TPV lobe to hold back a little earlier instead of pushing east. The further west it is, the more interaction it'll have with the southern piece and capture it properly, just like we saw with the Euro solutions last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, LeesburgWx said: So frustrating that we can't hold run to run changes It’s not going to start snowing until Wednesday. To expect consistency from this range is unrealistic. It’s not like the storm is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, snowfan said: It’s not going to start snowing until Wednesday. To expect consistency from this range is unrealistic. It’s not like the storm is gone. Wednesday sounds a lot closer than February 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Per CAPE's post, it's gonna be cold with whatever falls. 850s and surface look great on that GFS run. Cold smoke. But I'd like to pull that boundary inland a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a literal wall of Arctic HP to our N and NW leading into this event. The baroclinic boundary is suppressed to the south. Seems like some here are overlooking basic meteorology. The low will develop and track along the thermal boundary, and so it isnt surprising that places further SE are favored for the heaviest snow. The ens mean across guidance are literally screaming that this is the case. Makes perfect sense, we are screwed. Gone are the days of cold powder storms. Yes, its cold but the snow is SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Where is @stormtracker with his trademarked phrase? Man, fuck the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a literal wall of Arctic HP to our N and NW leading into this event. The baroclinic boundary is suppressed to the south. Seems like some here are overlooking basic meteorology. The low will develop and track along the thermal boundary, and so it isnt surprising that places further SE are favored for the heaviest snow. The ens mean across guidance are literally screaming that this is the case. No chance it's chasing convection at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Still a long way to go. This run is fine. On a side note I guess this Stormy character is a troll? I anxiously await their 4-model blend every afternoon 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Closed 500mb low over Minnesota Low pressure in Gulf of Mexico Crazy potential on the model -- Maybe expect something less extreme in future model runs? N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern is good, but no extreme +PNA or anything like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: The NS energy is just too far north. That's what was going to say. We're relying in the southern stream and that's getting pushed east. Idk, just a thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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