stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, deer said: humble request for no meltdowns or "disaster" calls til the 18z GFS run is over It's an ugly run. Disaster. Horrific. Sorry guys. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Has there ever been a 1-2 foot storm in dc where NYC got shutout? I feel like they always reel it in in the last 24 hours somehow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Had the same thought. I feel like it's either "both" of us, neither of us, or just them (not for this storm, just in general). The excellent @SnowGoose69alluded to this in the NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I don't put much stock in the ICON since it's a trash can model in the grand scheme, but I still look because there's nothing else new to parse over. Run was great for many, especially if you are east of Rt15. If you live out by 81, I can see SOME disdain, but even so, it's 11-13" so nothing to sneeze at. Also, if you are posting doom and gloom on a run before it finishes and it ends up being significant anyway, should be a key to stop doing any pbp and just enjoy others input. I did it for 6 years before I started doing any pbp and I'm a degreed met now. Sit back and learn, ask questions, and enjoy the meteorology of it all. Icon I’ve noticed tends to be stingy on qpf out there often. Makes sense. It’s stingier in general usually (except some odd times when it goes nuts kinda like the 3k NAM in that way) and that area is a precip shadow zone but given what their ratios are likely to be and how the valley tends to do in coastals so long as they get into the easterly low level fetch as the low passes SE of them, I’d expect them to do better. Strictly assuming this run was actually close to reality. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You guys weren't kidding about the cold smoke...2m temps are nippy. Absolutely zero temp issues along 95 with that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 [mention=514]Ji[/mention]Oh wow. Thanks so much. That is crazy. I guess the block was too good for their own good Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So what or who determines if this is considered PD3? Does it have to be on PD weekend? Someone pointed out that this is a day after the original PD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Has there ever been a 1-2 foot storm in dc where NYC got shutout? I feel like they always reel it in in the last 24 hours somehow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Feb 2010?? EDIt- ninja'd by @DDweatherman lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: @Ji lol that always makes me cringe. I didn’t measure but I think the reason the map dips down like that in NEMD is because Philips Army Airfield at APG measured when they got back in the office the day after. Thankfully they don’t submit reports anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS starting up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, jayyy said: GFS starting up Big run coming! Gonna inject the positive juju into this thread! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Then 2/10/10 gave NY retribution and 2/23-2/26 did some more. The retrograde storm as I call it. We thought we had a chance with that one, just didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 lol that always makes me cringe. I didn’t measure but I think the reason the map dips down like that in NEMD is because Philips Army Airfield at APG measured when they got back in the office the day after. Thankfully they don’t submit reports anymore.If you zoom in far enough you can see the lighter blue from dca’s report 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Big run coming! Gonna inject the positive juju into this thread! Good luck buddy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, jayyy said: If you zoom in far enough you can see the lighter blue from dca’s report That is so dumb, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Obviously no big changes so far. Can we just all agree that the bar is double digits? Let's just do that. if we can get 10, we win 14 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 50 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: I don’t brag…I always root for y’all even when I get slop. For this one tho…I’m just hoping to enjoy a little karma for few folks Weird. Because you said the exact same thing leading up to the last storm. How far back do we have to go to find where you "always root for y'all"? Because it looks to me like you bring little more than trolling and toxicity to these threads. When was the "rooting" happening again? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: Obviously no big changes so far. Can we just all agree that the bar is double digits? Let's just do that. if we can get 10, we win 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: Obviously no big changes so far. Can we just all agree that the bar is double digits? Let's just do that. if we can get 10, we win Yep, that was what I posted as my bar earlier this year. Sitting at 22” after today’s surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 LOL, Both our phones and the TV and the weather radio ALL went off at same time for a FFW, life threatening and dangerous for area until 10:45 pm. Scared wife and the cat, they both jumped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Weird. Because you said the exact same thing leading up to the last storm. How far back do we have to go to find where you "always root for y'all"? Because it looks to me like you bring little more than trolling and toxicity to these threads. When was the "rooting" happening again? He’s doing the opposite of what PSU talked about regarding a “settle the score” storm for certain areas. Like Mother Nature gives a damn about us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Then 2/10/10 gave NY retribution and 2/23-2/26 did some more. The retrograde storm as I call it. We thought we had a chance with that one, just didn’t happen. That was an incredible 2 weeks to experience up there. I was honestly spoiled rotten wrt snow when I was younger. The retrograde system was unreal. We seemingly got at least one KU each year from 96 to 2010. It was an incredible 20 year stretch for the nyc suburbs. Above average snowfall most years. Then I moved down here and we get shellacked Jan 2016. Been all downhill since then but hoping this year is the start of a snowier set of winters for us as the pac becomes less hostile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I know we used to have a storm mode sometime in the past. Wasn't there also a model mode? No banter during the running of the models, or something to that effect. Parsing through 10 pages to find real information is getting old. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: When is the last time we had a >1050mb High in the Midwest for a storm? Seems pretty extreme. The 18z NAM at 84hr has 1054mb. Todays 12z models holding the storm really upped the chances imo. Also, if models weaken that 1050's mb High in future runs, will the storm trend north? Most of the best h5 analogs I found the storm being too far northwest was a bigger issue than southeast. March 14 2017 was the best match imo at h5. But most didn’t have a 1055 high and this level of arctic air involved. But I don’t buy a weak OTS solution with this h5 setup. 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Has there ever been a 1-2 foot storm in dc where NYC got shutout? I feel like they always reel it in in the last 24 hours somehow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Feb 2010 ya. One of the 1987 storms was close to a foot in DC and nada or very little there. But the point it’s really rare is legit. Thing is there are typical interactions and a storm that’s amplified enough to get those kinds of totals up to DC rarely gets stoned immediately after. A cut off or STJ only system can slide under the NS without a full phase and blast NC and southern VA but without some NS help its unlikely to get those totals to DC. And if it does it’s not likely to be sliding due east and miss NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: That was an incredible 2 weeks to experience up there. I was honestly spoiled rotten wrt snow when I was younger. The retrograde system was unreal. We seemingly got at least one KU each year from 96 to 2010. It was an incredible 20 year stretch for the nyc suburbs. Above average snowfall most years. Then I moved down here and we get shellacked Jan 2016. Been all downhill since then but hoping this year is the start of a snowier set of winters for us as the pac becomes less hostile. Really hoping this is a decadal change for the PAC. here’s to PSU and Bob being right about that. Sometimes when we get hot, we can still do special things here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Obviously no big changes so far. Can we just all agree that the bar is double digits? Let's just do that. if we can get 10, we win I have two bars. That one for an all out win. 6"-7" for a bare minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I laughed way harder at this than I should have lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I have two bars. That one for an all out win. 6"-7" for a bare minimum 6-7 is a fail given what the models have been showing… let’s just leave it at 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: 6-7 is a fail given what the models have been showing… let’s just leave it at 10 I'm totally cool with that! I think that's just me protecting my brain in case a bad trend continues, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 the Northern junk seems a bit sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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