Scraff Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Happy Hour GooFuS pre-game! LFG!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon looks better than the gfs and euro at h5. If we can lock that solution in, we're winning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] from what you see currently in the data and trends what do you think is the floor for storm? 6 or do we do the 18-2 thing again lol Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This kicker is faster as well. Yikes Yikes was 20”. What would uh oh yield? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I love ULL, more risky, but that shit is epic, and with temps at <20 degrees, I’d sign yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Omg @stormtracker needs to issue some red cards up in here. Some of yall make me look like an optimist or ya just trolling or drunk lol Icon: just had its best most amplified run other than the last one. That isn’t a trend it’s noise. We’re still 100 hours out. When I said guidance would start to converge on a solution pretty close to reality around 140 I didn’t mean to the F’ing mile. I meant they would do what they’ve done. We now know there’s going to be a significant storm off the mid Atlantic coast. We’re no longer looking at 200 mile shifts run to run or the storm not being there at all. Now we’re dealing with more subtle adjustments and trends that are still significant to us but a 20% change in amplitude run to run is still noise at this range! In other words the difference between this and the last run can honestly just be chance and both are equally likely 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Omg @stormtracker needs to issue some red cards up in here. Some of yall make me look like an optimist or ya just trolling or drunk lol Icon: just had its best most amplified run other than the last one. That isn’t a trend it’s noise. We’re still 100 hours out. When I said guidance would start to converge on a solution pretty close to reality around 140 I didn’t mean to the F’ing mile. I meant they would do what they’ve done. We now know there’s going to be a significant storm off the mid Atlantic coast. We’re no longer looking at 200 mile shifts run to run or the storm not being there at all. Now we’re dealing with more subtle adjustments and trends that are still significant to us but a 20% change in amplitude run to run is still noise at this range! In other words the difference between this and the last run can honestly just be chance and both are equally likely You referring to this HECS look? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021518&fh=114 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On thr icon the kicker is in California while we are getting pummeled lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, 87storms said: You referring to this HECS look? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021518&fh=114 That’s KU worthy. That pass screams dendrites and fluff, it would be drool worthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don't put much stock in the ICON since it's a trash can model in the grand scheme, but I still look because there's nothing else new to parse over. Run was great for many, especially if you are east of Rt15. If you live out by 81, I can see SOME disdain, but even so, it's 11-13" so nothing to sneeze at. Also, if you are posting doom and gloom on a run before it finishes and it ends up being significant anyway, should be a key to stop doing any pbp and just enjoy others input. I did it for 6 years before I started doing any pbp and I'm a degreed met now. Sit back and learn, ask questions, and enjoy the meteorology of it all. 12 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Bad take by me, sorry everyone. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Allsnow kinda pulled a Ralph from last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: That’s KU worthy. That pass screams dendrites and fluff, it would be drool worthy. It could be like 50 miles further south, but yea that's going to shut things down for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Omg @stormtracker needs to issue some red cards up in here. Some of yall make me look like an optimist or ya just trolling or drunk lol Icon: just had its best most amplified run other than the last one. That isn’t a trend it’s noise. We’re still 100 hours out. When I said guidance would start to converge on a solution pretty close to reality around 140 I didn’t mean to the F’ing mile. I meant they would do what they’ve done. We now know there’s going to be a significant storm off the mid Atlantic coast. We’re no longer looking at 200 mile shifts run to run or the storm not being there at all. Now we’re dealing with more subtle adjustments and trends that are still significant to us but a 20% change in amplitude run to run is still noise at this range! In other words the difference between this and the last run can honestly just be chance and both are equally likely Like I said earlier, 12z Monday will pass judgement, but east of I-95 will likely be bombed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: Icon looks better than the gfs and euro at h5. If we can lock that solution in, we're winning. You rang 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Bad take by me, sorry everyone. You're good. You get a pass 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, 87storms said: It could be like 50 miles further south, but yea that's going to be shut things down for a couple days. I love these storms because of the phases. The hefty thumpy WAA (which it won’t be warm if the icon is right, cold smoke), then the crazy ratios in a ULL. That run really reminded me of Feb 10,2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: You referring to this HECS look? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021518&fh=114 Ya and the fact it’s usually one of the stingiest models with QPF and it just dropped .75-1.5 qpf of cold smoke across the whole area from the blue ridge to the eastern shore up into southern PA and some are making it sound like a disaster. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I don't put much stock in the ICON since it's a trash can model in the grand scheme, but I still look because there's nothing else new to parse over. Run was great for many, especially if you are east of Rt15. If you live out by 81, I can see SOME disdain, but even so, it's 11-13" so nothing to sneeze at. Also, if you are posting doom and gloom on a run before it finishes and it ends up being significant anyway, should be a key to stop doing any pbp and just enjoy others input. I did it for 6 years before I started doing any pbp and I'm a degreed met now. Sit back and learn, ask questions, and enjoy the meteorology of it all. I'm only 2 miles nw of Rt 15, so I'm going to classify myself as east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bad take by me, sorry everyone. Glad that's never happened to me! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon gives me 12-15” of snow (assuming typical ratios here for this setup). If that happens I’ll be celebrating. And some are saying bad run lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Has there ever been a 1-2 foot storm in dc where NYC got shutout? I feel like they always reel it in in the last 24 hours somehow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon gives me 12-15” of snow (assuming typical ratios here for this setup). If that happens I’ll be celebrating. And some are saying bad run lol. If we get 12-15 in Nina I'd calm it a HLecs Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 humble request for no meltdowns or "disaster" calls til the 18z GFS run is over 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15z SREF also looks pretty north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 February 2010 - DC got 2 feet and NY got a trace 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Ji said: Has there ever been a 1-2 foot storm in dc where NYC got shutout? I feel like they always reel it in in the last 24 hours somehow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Didn’t this happen in 2/5-6/10? Or did they get like <4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Omg @stormtracker needs to issue some red cards up in here. Some of yall make me look like an optimist or ya just trolling or drunk lol Icon: just had its best most amplified run other than the last one. That isn’t a trend it’s noise. We’re still 100 hours out. When I said guidance would start to converge on a solution pretty close to reality around 140 I didn’t mean to the F’ing mile. I meant they would do what they’ve done. We now know there’s going to be a significant storm off the mid Atlantic coast. We’re no longer looking at 200 mile shifts run to run or the storm not being there at all. Now we’re dealing with more subtle adjustments and trends that are still significant to us but a 20% change in amplitude run to run is still noise at this range! In other words the difference between this and the last run can honestly just be chance and both are equally likely I’m always optimistic, even when it may not be realistic. But I appreciate your insight because you will keep us focused on reality. I have learned that modeling is more than just the pretty maps. They don’t always follow the trends, so it’s useful to get insight on the actual storm progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Didn’t this happen in 2/5-6/10? Or did they get like Don't remember but I remember in 2016 they were sweating bullets till last 48 hours Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiseeker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, deer said: humble request for no meltdowns or "disaster" calls til the 18z GFS run is over It’s a horrible run!! BTW… has it started yet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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