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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You are surprisingly well and relatively upbeat.   Are you ok?

 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

This would never happen with a cutter 4 days out. This may be slipping away to 3-6 storm that that would be horrendous

Whew! Allgood. Was a close one 

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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. 

I mean, my base expectations were to break the 6" mark. Never woulda thought that was too high...but looking at seasonal persistence and the 12z trend...if you get another z or 2 of that it's kinda the same, isn't jt?

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10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. 

My expectations aren’t to get a 20” storm. But there is one issue, all guidance shows the jack gets plenty of snow. That’s not the issue. In my case I won’t cry if it ends up a 6-12” snow as long as I’m in it. The issue is ending up too far outside and getting 3” lol.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

My expectations aren’t to get a 20” storm. But there is one issue, all guidance shows the jack gets plenty of snow. That’s not the issue. In my case I won’t cry if it ends up a 6-12” snow as long as I’m in it. The issue is ending up too far outside and getting 3” lol.  

I don’t expect us to get the jack this time. Probably to the SE of us. 

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You are surprisingly well and relatively upbeat.   Are you ok?
Reading the new England board spooked me. The kicker...then this new destructive element over maine that just popped up

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There's does seem to be some added pressure on this storm delivering. The teleconnections on the EURO ensembles don't look so hot. Such a quick reversal on all the important indices starting around the 19th/20th. Didn't see that coming a week ago. Looked like we were going to be locked in through Mid-March. Not so much anymore. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

It takes one run to go from 15-6

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Look on the bright side. RIC and SWVA weenies are still lookin solid. I'll let you use my snow total in your yard to help out. It's what friends are for 

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15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. 

Frankly don’t see the issue as long as I get between 4-8. Then again I’ve never really experienced a mecs so don’t know what I’m missing

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My expectations aren’t to get a 20” storm. But there is one issue, all guidance shows the jack gets plenty of snow. That’s not the issue. In my case I won’t cry if it ends up a 6-12” snow as long as I’m in it. The issue is ending up too far outside and getting 3” lol.  

This. Anything below 6" is a fail to me. And a modeling fail too...that would mean they weren't even close to the right idea!

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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t expect us to get the jack this time. Probably to the SE of us. 

But what does that mean?  I’m ok if I get 10” and Annapolis gets 18. But I’m gonna be a serious threat to furry creatures if I get another 3” fringe while the eastern shore gets  12+. There a huge difference between being in the “meat of the storm” but not the jack and getting fringed. The former is ok and only Ji goes nuts about. The latter has been happening a lot recently and is NOT ok. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

But what does that mean?  I’m ok if I get 10” and Annapolis gets 18. But I’m gonna be a serious threat to furry creatures if I get another 3” fringe while the eastern shore gets  12+. There a huge difference between being in the “meat of the storm” but not the jack and getting fringed. The former is ok and only Ji goes nuts about. The latter has been happening a lot recently and is NOT ok. 

Well I hope we both get double digits, but we’ll just have to see how the disconnect between the op and ensembles resolves itself in the next runs tonight and tomorrow

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9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

These Richmond people think we’re happy for them to get 10” while we get 2”. Ji would NEVER be okay with losing to Richmond. 

Ji loses in life everyday. Probably hasnt bathed or slept in days and in the end going to get shafted by short pump 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But what does that mean?  I’m ok if I get 10” and Annapolis gets 18. But I’m gonna be a serious threat to furry creatures if I get another 3” fringe while the eastern shore gets  12+. There a huge difference between being in the “meat of the storm” but not the jack and getting fringed. The former is ok and only Ji goes nuts about. The latter has been happening a lot recently and is NOT ok. 

Couldn't agree more. I'm fine with less as long as it's not 2 inches over 20 hours lol.

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. Anything below 6" is a fail to me. And a modeling fail too...that would mean they weren't even close to the right idea!

Lol. You live in Baltimore city with an avg annual snowfall bordering on 20”. Check the expectations. 

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All I see is pink on every model and all I read is whaaaa not enough pink over me. And again many of you have no clue what the word trend means
That would be fine if the storm started tomorrow

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Lol. You live in Baltimore city with an avg annual snowfall bordering on 20”. Check the expectations. 

I haven't hit 20" in 9 years. I've only hit the median (15") twice in that timeframe. And all the last 6 years DC/s & e of me have done far better. If I was getting climo it wouldn't be as bad. But the last 6 years or so have been historically the worst that we've ever had.

And 6" for a storm with this much potential is not an unreasonable expectation. Like PSU said, it's a difference between getting 6-10" and getting fringed with like 3".

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