Jandurin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 snow jealousy is something i wouldn't believe in if i didn't see it here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You are surprisingly well and relatively upbeat. Are you ok? 7 minutes ago, Ji said: This would never happen with a cutter 4 days out. This may be slipping away to 3-6 storm that that would be horrendous Whew! Allgood. Was a close one 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We are running out of time to trend better. I still feel good, but feel like we are trying to hold on to a string being pulled from us with hands covered in oil. Nice melodrama but we have not trended worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. I mean, my base expectations were to break the 6" mark. Never woulda thought that was too high...but looking at seasonal persistence and the 12z trend...if you get another z or 2 of that it's kinda the same, isn't jt? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: F Richmond. Towson should be renamed to No-snow-town-son 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Do you really believe that or did you forget to take your pill todayIt takes one run to go from 15-6Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. My expectations aren’t to get a 20” storm. But there is one issue, all guidance shows the jack gets plenty of snow. That’s not the issue. In my case I won’t cry if it ends up a 6-12” snow as long as I’m in it. The issue is ending up too far outside and getting 3” lol. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Ji said: It takes one run to go from 15-6 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Or as the gfs showed from 6 - 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: My expectations aren’t to get a 20” storm. But there is one issue, all guidance shows the jack gets plenty of snow. That’s not the issue. In my case I won’t cry if it ends up a 6-12” snow as long as I’m in it. The issue is ending up too far outside and getting 3” lol. I don’t expect us to get the jack this time. Probably to the SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You are surprisingly well and relatively upbeat. Are you ok?Reading the new England board spooked me. The kicker...then this new destructive element over maine that just popped upSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 There's does seem to be some added pressure on this storm delivering. The teleconnections on the EURO ensembles don't look so hot. Such a quick reversal on all the important indices starting around the 19th/20th. Didn't see that coming a week ago. Looked like we were going to be locked in through Mid-March. Not so much anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 24hr precip It clearly increased the amplitude of the storm but didn’t help the track at all. We need the track to adjust more than the amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We are running out of time to trend better. I still feel good, but feel like we are trying to hold on to a string being pulled from us with hands covered in oil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All I see is pink on every model and all I read is whaaaa not enough pink over me. And again many of you have no clue what the word trend means 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Ji said: It takes one run to go from 15-6 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Look on the bright side. RIC and SWVA weenies are still lookin solid. I'll let you use my snow total in your yard to help out. It's what friends are for 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Whew! Allgood. Was a close one Yeah, I missed that other post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: F Richmond. These Richmond people think we’re happy for them to get 10” while we get 2”. Ji would NEVER be okay with losing to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. Frankly don’t see the issue as long as I get between 4-8. Then again I’ve never really experienced a mecs so don’t know what I’m missing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My expectations aren’t to get a 20” storm. But there is one issue, all guidance shows the jack gets plenty of snow. That’s not the issue. In my case I won’t cry if it ends up a 6-12” snow as long as I’m in it. The issue is ending up too far outside and getting 3” lol. This. Anything below 6" is a fail to me. And a modeling fail too...that would mean they weren't even close to the right idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 6-12” range for a storm is always so funny to me because a 6” storm means you can go to work the next day while a 12” storm means you wish you had bought the bread and milk. Totally different animals on each end of the spectrum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t expect us to get the jack this time. Probably to the SE of us. But what does that mean? I’m ok if I get 10” and Annapolis gets 18. But I’m gonna be a serious threat to furry creatures if I get another 3” fringe while the eastern shore gets 12+. There a huge difference between being in the “meat of the storm” but not the jack and getting fringed. The former is ok and only Ji goes nuts about. The latter has been happening a lot recently and is NOT ok. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: All I see is pink on every model and all I read is whaaaa not enough pink over me. And again many of you have no clue what the word trend means More of an anticipation of future trends. I WISH it could stay the same as today's runs. I'd take that and run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: But what does that mean? I’m ok if I get 10” and Annapolis gets 18. But I’m gonna be a serious threat to furry creatures if I get another 3” fringe while the eastern shore gets 12+. There a huge difference between being in the “meat of the storm” but not the jack and getting fringed. The former is ok and only Ji goes nuts about. The latter has been happening a lot recently and is NOT ok. Well I hope we both get double digits, but we’ll just have to see how the disconnect between the op and ensembles resolves itself in the next runs tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: These Richmond people think we’re happy for them to get 10” while we get 2”. Ji would NEVER be okay with losing to Richmond. Ji loses in life everyday. Probably hasnt bathed or slept in days and in the end going to get shafted by short pump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But what does that mean? I’m ok if I get 10” and Annapolis gets 18. But I’m gonna be a serious threat to furry creatures if I get another 3” fringe while the eastern shore gets 12+. There a huge difference between being in the “meat of the storm” but not the jack and getting fringed. The former is ok and only Ji goes nuts about. The latter has been happening a lot recently and is NOT ok. Couldn't agree more. I'm fine with less as long as it's not 2 inches over 20 hours lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Rvarookie said: Ji loses in life everyday. Probably has bathed or slept in days and in the end going to get shafted by short pump Could be worse though. Like actually living in Richmond. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This. Anything below 6" is a fail to me. And a modeling fail too...that would mean they weren't even close to the right idea! Lol. You live in Baltimore city with an avg annual snowfall bordering on 20”. Check the expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All I see is pink on every model and all I read is whaaaa not enough pink over me. And again many of you have no clue what the word trend meansThat would be fine if the storm started tomorrow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Ji said: That would be fine if the storm started tomorrow Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk According to you it has already started right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Lol. You live in Baltimore city with an avg annual snowfall bordering on 20”. Check the expectations. I haven't hit 20" in 9 years. I've only hit the median (15") twice in that timeframe. And all the last 6 years DC/s & e of me have done far better. If I was getting climo it wouldn't be as bad. But the last 6 years or so have been historically the worst that we've ever had. And 6" for a storm with this much potential is not an unreasonable expectation. Like PSU said, it's a difference between getting 6-10" and getting fringed with like 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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