WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I guess I can see why people spook easy here, but the way this storm keeps windshield wipe-ring should make people pause and at least wait for a clear trend either way. I mean we are still seeing depictions of 3-20” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Step back on the AI. Not a total whiff, but less than 6z. How can it be less and not a total whiff when 6z was like 2” for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We’ve reached the magical 100 hour barrier, here’s where it gets either fun for some/many or heartbreaking. The big dog tracking is the most fun part of these forums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I guess I can see why people spook easy here, but the way this storm keeps windshield wipe-ring should make people pause and at least wait for a clear trend either way. That will happen by Monday 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: How can it be less and not a total whiff when 6z was like 2” for us? Is there any way that since it’s so unusual to get 20” that some models just disregard that potential ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Does anyone know what kind of ratios we should have for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Ji said: Does anyone know what kind of ratios we should have for the storm? No matter what our ratios are always 8:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: How can it be less and not a total whiff when 6z was like 2” for us? We get just about nothing and the metros get shaved too. Speaking generally for the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think Eastern areas are really locked in. I think for areas west it's still up in the air how well we do. It's really remarkable how consistently that's been the theme this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Does anyone know what kind of ratios we should have for the storm? 16:1 out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I do like 12:1 at least for a lot of folks. Though if the storm is dynamic and has some ccb/deform, definitely could get a period of 15-20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Is there any way that since it’s so unusual to get 20” that some models just disregard that potential ? The physics based NWP don’t take history into account. They are a simulation based on initial conditions using physics to project the future. When they’re developed they do go through extensive trials and editing to make sure they match reality “as best as we are capable” lol The AI I’m much less familiar with the process of how they operate but they do take analogs into the equation but they don’t eliminate big storms I’ve seen it predict them already when there’s a chance. It showed a 20” Snow at range for us a while back for one run. It was at like 350 hours when we know not to take it seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: We’ve reached the magical 100 hour barrier, here’s where it gets either fun for some/many or heartbreaking. The big dog tracking is the most fun part of these forums I agree. I will casually follow the smaller storms and don't invest much time/energy but anytime there's the chance of a big storm I become completely consumed with it. The week leading up to the 2010 and 2016 storms was so much fun. Every single model just nuked us over and over again. I know we all can't wait for something like that again to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m a little confused how the positive changes at h5 on the uk ens made absolutely no difference on the actual surface track. The only panels I can see are mslp but dispute the much better h5 @mitchnick posted the storm track is no better at all. Not even slight west adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m a little confused how the positive changes at h5 on the uk ens made absolutely no difference on the actual surface track. The only panels I can see are mslp but dispute the much better h5 @mitchnick posted the storm track is no better at all. Not even slight west adjustment. Paint that h5 on a bunch of runs the next few days and we’d see some big runs at ground truth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m a little confused how the positive changes at h5 on the uk ens made absolutely no difference on the actual surface track. The only panels I can see are mslp but dispute the much better h5 @mitchnick posted the storm track is no better at all. Not even slight west adjustment. Slp member 6z vs 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: Slp member 6z vs 12z 24hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We are running out of time to trend better. I still feel good, but feel like we are trying to hold on to a string being pulled from us with hands covered in oil. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hoping we cash in on this one, but if not least we don’t have to claim Ji down around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If we lowered our expectations a bit, maybe we won’t have a massive meltdown if the next runs don’t trend our way. All i’m saying is, be prepared. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol youngsters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We are running out of time to trend better. I still feel good, but feel like we are trying to hold on to a string being pulled from us with hands covered in oil. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just finished watching the new Captain America at Alamo...catching up here and some of you are just some miserable mf'ers. Good luck wherever you live...maybe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This would never happen with a cutter 4 days out. This may be slipping away to 3-6 storm that that would be horrendous 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We are running out of time to trend better. I still feel good, but feel like we are trying to hold on to a string being pulled from us with hands covered in oil. Still plenty time to trend either way. Always a nail biter though. Still 96 hours from first flakes. There can be drastic changes even in the last 24 hours. Until Monday there will still be ebbs and flows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's going to snow in the same places it has all season, meaning south and east. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Ji said: This would never happen with a cutter 4 days out. This may be slipping away to 3-6 storm that that would be horrendous Do you really believe that or did you forget to take your pill today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snow jealousy is pathetic. How quickly folks forget the rough times…greedy bastards 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Rvarookie said: Snow jealousy is pathetic. How quickly folks forget the rough times…greedy bastards F Richmond. 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 38 minutes ago, Ji said: Does anyone know what kind of ratios we should have for the storm? You are surprisingly well and relatively upbeat. Are you ok? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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