adelphi_sky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Relax guys. Shifts like these are to be expected this far out. If you’re looking for a 20”+ HECS, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. I mean, what dreams may come. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: I think the Euro and GFS are just meeting in the middle. Wouldn't be that bad of a result I think the middle ground might leave a lot to be desired north of dc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS also tending to shear out the trop PV last few runs. That would limit the HECS-like chances. If…if..can…can…could…could we Not sure why we import outside opinions from those who never post here and whose skills are unknown. If they wish to participate here then They should do so themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Relax guys. Shifts like these are to be expected this far out. If you’re looking for a 20”+ HECS, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. Ji says hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I think the Euro and GFS are just meeting in the middle. Wouldn't be that bad of a result For our area they’re pretty much identical now so…it’s already happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick uk ens should be rolling in about now. Curious if they reflect the more amped op run. They're coming in, but slowly. I'll post when the get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I do find it a little odd that across the board the op runs are more amplified compared to their ensembles. It’s been that way for a few runs now also. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: euro made two negative shifts this run looking at it. by hour 84, there's less interaction between the two waves. additionally, the kicker is more destructive, stringing it out but stringing it out too late for it to affect us. Nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 euro made two negative shifts this run looking at it. by hour 84, there's less interaction between the two waves. additionally, the kicker is more destructive, stringing it out but stringing it out too late for it to affect us. Need the NS upper level energy to dig further south or we’re looking at a congrats Boston. I’m retired from 3-6” snowfalls for the season…it’s go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Nope i mean it did, that's what caused it to be better further south and worse further north. good for us now, but we wouldn't want this to become a trend. idt it will tho so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Step back on the AI. Not a total whiff, but less than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I do find it a little odd that across the board the op runs are more amplified compared to their ensembles. It’s been that way for a few runs now also. yeah i wonder why this is the case. is it because ensembles are more low res besides eps and eps is the most juiced out of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick uk ens should be rolling in about now. Curious if they reflect the more amped op run. At 108hrs, definitely more amped than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: At 108hrs, definitely more amped than 6z. yeah on the bright side, euro is one of the only models with the kicker literally starting to wrap around our system lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Bigger difference at 114. More amped and further west. None of that wimpy azz crap like the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 120hrs. When do I stop? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Bigger difference at 114. More amped and further west. None of that wimpy azz crap like the Euro. I’ll take that but probably old school crazy uncle tendencies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Relax guys. Shifts like these are to be expected this far out. If you’re looking for a 20”+ HECS, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. I'm just looking for snow over 6". And what happened to today, I'm wondering how low the low end is. I mean...isn't or partial phase (or worse) still on the table? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Helped some with snowfall, but still centered SE unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm just looking for snow over 6". And what happened to today, I'm wondering how low the low end is. I mean...isn't or partial phase (or worse) still on the table? I think Eastern areas are really locked in. I think for areas west it's still up in the air how well we do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I do find it a little odd that across the board the op runs are more amplified compared to their ensembles. It’s been that way for a few runs now also. They should be more amplified they run at a higher resolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 How funny is it Randy does a folks for the euro then says eh it was premature. Half the time he’s waiting to call it when there’s 12” OTG and snow is still falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: How funny is it Randy does a folks for the euro then says eh it was premature. Half the time he’s waiting to call it when there’s 12” OTG and snow is still falling In fairness the 114 panel of the euro IS folks worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I didn't see anyone post CMCE, and for good reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Helped some with snowfall, but still centered SE unfortunately. I guess I can see why people spook easy here, but the way this storm keeps windshield wipe-ring should make people pause and at least wait for a clear trend either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Ji said: They should be more amplified they run at a higher resolution Really ?? I thought the ensembles have the same number of grid points as the op? And each member just gets initialized with slightly screwed data to find out how reliable the run is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: How funny is it Randy does a folks for the euro then says eh it was premature. Half the time he’s waiting to call it when there’s 12” OTG and snow is still falling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: In fairness the 114 panel of the euro IS folks worthy. I agree. Just the reverse psychology and irony of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Really ?? I thought the ensembles have the same number of grid points as the op? And each member just gets initialized with slightly screwed data to find out how reliable the run is? No it’s lower resolution, it takes like hours upon hours of a super computer just to do the euro run once, to run 50 permutations they have to lower it I think just because of computing power limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I find it odd those making the case there is a de-amplification trend on the EPS skipped the 6z run. That was actually the most amplified run there’s been! But sure if we ignore the more amplified runs it’s a trend lol. IMO we need another run or two to see if it’s a legit trend. I do find the disconnect going on between the op and ensembles across all guidance to be odd. If it was just one run I’d be even more worried we just had a fluke where all the ops spit out an unlikely outlier solution. But it’s been for several runs now across all guidance and the math on that makes it being a fluke astronomically unlikely. There is something in the physics between the ensembles and the operational causing this. All I’ll say is anecdotally I’ve noticed a disconnect like this a few times inside 120 hours. Outside that always go with the ensembles. But inside day 5 lately the operational have actually been better. At least in situations recently when the op spit out an undesirable run and we were clinging to a better ensemble, it never saved us. Oddly this was in reverse recently when the ops were less amplified and is northerners climbed to some ensemble runs with better snow lol. I would need someone more familiar with the physics behind why there might be the more less amplified divide between the ops and ens to give a more substantive analysis over which is more likely missing something. normally you take the ensemble because of the fact it’s weighting multiple members to account for a fluke outcome on the op. But at this range and given the phenomenon is across all guidance for multiple runs I don’t think it’s a fluke it’s a clear difference between the two and I don’t know what’s causing it but given the relative accuracy of the ops lately and their higher resolution I’d be inclined to side there. Unless there is a case to be made their higher resolution is tricking them into an erroneously over amped solution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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