paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Less spread than 06z, but still plenty. A tick faster than 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snow mean on the past three EPS runs aren't exactly trending in our favor fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 EPS mean didn't really get much worse (normal windshield wiper stuff) for anyone outside of far NW VA/WV. I'd obviously like the 10" over us, but all this is showing me is a sizable VA storm. No major qualms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS...lot of big hits but still some misses. We are in the good seats of the stadium 4 days out... I wonder if there has ever been research on the performance of individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: This Euro run is definitely still acceptable as advertised, but not exactly what I hoped to see after what the 12z CMC showed. I imagine the NYC forum is pretty entertaining right now. While I'd take it verbatim...I am a little concerned at where the low part of the goalpost ends up. Now if this is it...I take! 6-10" I take but somewhat longingly. But I can't help but wonder if it just keeps going further se than that as we get closer due to some missed phase or something. I mean things have deamped and favored s & e all winter when we got close... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is a great call out because a lot of our “bigger” snows just have a wall of heaven that advects in from the west southwest. Some of the best pre event radars you can see as bright yellows come in from Knoxville. We are due.. I will say that to keep positive. 12z eps is about a strong of a signal as you can ask for irt a flush hit with waa wall. What a beaut. I'm around 5" from climo snowfall. I hate predicting beyond day 3 but I feel basically all in on a widespread 3-6" with upside. I've thoroughly enjoyed this winter. If next week works out, worst grade I can give the season is A-. Not a blowout snow year (yet) but winter appeal in general has had very few breaks this season. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If you flick through 12z EPS/GEPS/GEFS, there is near-perfect agreement of a Tidewater jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I wonder if there has ever been research on the performance of individual members? Even if there has been...it's better we not know--that would only add to the obsession of weenies everywhere, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I wonder if there has ever been research on the performance of individual members?That’s how they figure out the efficacy of viagra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 EPS also tending to shear out the trop PV last few runs. That would limit the HECS-like chances. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: EPS also tending to shear out the trop PV last few runs. That would limit the HECS-like chances. Well that would be unfortunate...but again fitting the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS also tending to shear out the trop PV last few runs. That would limit the HECS-like chances. GFS was first to show this potential issue. If it continues we revert back to Seasonal mean. Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well that would be unfortunate...but again fitting the seasonal trend. No surprise, it's a repeating occurrence for a reason. New York forum might start to worry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So I come back in here, see the Euro results and think "Wow...it held, this is looking more locked in overall". And what do I read? Several comments complaining and tearing of hair that it's not a 20" monster here like it was at 00Z or whatever. Jesus people, get a grip (or a $138 steak served by Jesus, hahaha!). I couldn't believe how many downer and over-concerned posts there were after that run. Do we still have 5-posting in here at all? Fact is, at this point every major model is showing at least a warning level event area-wide. Even the "low end" CMC had ~6" or so. I'm speaking in general round terms here, not specific locations. It's looking more likely that we should all be in for a forum-wide 6-10" or 8-12" event, maybe with some more upside if things work out just right. Even if the phasing doesn't quite work out or is a bit messy. And we're talking cold powder here, people!! When's the last time we had anything like this? I'd say the 2016 blizzard. /end rant! 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, T. August said: If you flick through 12z EPS/GEPS/GEFS, there is near-perfect agreement of a Tidewater jackpot. Definitely agree with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Can somebody with either a meteorology degree or extensive knowledge chime in with what they’re seeing? Cause the weenie cliff diving is annoying as shit lol. This is why I despise long range clown maps. People see one run showing 24” and now a 8-12 or 12-16 type event causes pandemonium 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Relax guys. Shifts like these are to be expected this far out. If you’re looking for a 20”+ HECS, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Im not in this camp. If I get 12” I’m ok. But there are people up in this area that want a storm to “settle the score” and bring this area to where we “should be” with regard to climo as those southeast of us who are at 110% of normal already. So…this area up here averages like 30-40” depending on exact location and most have had 10-20 so they need like a 20” snow to get to 110% and they need everyone SE of 95 to not get more snow or it’s still “not fair” because then they have 120%. Again I’m not in that camp. But I get it. We’ve been worse wrt climo quite a few years now here. Some are waiting for a storm to settle the score. They want a jack here not another storm where way more snow falls to our southeast. I get it. If I were up there, I'd probably be singing the opposite time I am now. But as I've gotten older, I've learned to not let it get to you as much. Weather gonna weather, no matter what we say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Can somebody with either a meteorology degree or extensive knowledge chime in with what they’re seeing? Cause the weenie cliff diving is annoying as shit lol. This is why I despise long range clown maps. People see one run showing 24” and now a 8-12 or 12-16 type event causes pandemonium I think what we need is someone with a psychology degree to fix that ish 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It is weather. It is out of our control. Life is not fair. Life is short. Take what you get and be happy. Buckle up and enjoy the ride. It is all we have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Seems pretty simple to figure out. If the NS is weaker it lets the SS slide east. Stronger and it yanks the SS closer to the coast. Too much either way for the NS and it has negative impacts. So we need the Goldilocks NS solution. Just right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Can somebody with either a meteorology degree or extensive knowledge chime in with what they’re seeing? Cause the weenie cliff diving is annoying as shit lol. This is why I despise long range clown maps. People see one run showing 24” and now a 8-12 or 12-16 type event causes pandemonium I think you are looking at a forum divider down there....thus the posts of yay they held vs trending the wrong way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Seems pretty simple to figure out. If the NS is weaker it lets the SS slide east. Stronger and it yanks the SS closer to the coast. Too much either way for the NS and it has negative impacts. So we need the Goldilocks NS solution. Just right Agreed. You saw the euro actually amp the southern vort a lot more this last run, partially why even with a weaker tpv up top we all get double digits+. If it had the same intensity as last run, it wouldn’t have been as solid. that said, some of the real enjoyable aspect of the upside runs is enjoying super high ratios in a deform/ccb situation. I’m craving that more than I’m craving a HECS tbh. They just usually happen to go hand in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think what we need is someone with a psychology degree to fix that ish Meds for everybody! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, jayyy said: Hahahaha he meh’d 12+ for the entire forum. Did you actually expect we’d get 18-24”? Come on now. Keep your expectations in check and you’ll stop always being disappointed. The euro is pretty much in line with the ukie and gfs. Even king euro comes back down to earth. My kids were born in 2015 and after. They’ve never seen a big storm. The ingredients are there. 12 is fine, but it’s not a big storm like 1996, 2000, 2003, 2009. 2010, 2016. I want to them to get to see a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 26 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: This Euro run is definitely still acceptable as advertised, but not exactly what I hoped to see after what the 12z CMC showed. I imagine the NYC forum is pretty entertaining right now. Yeah we were so in the thick of it that we could afford that south shift. But I don’t want it to become a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, osfan24 said: My kids were born in 2015 and after. They’ve never seen a big storm. The ingredients are there. 12 is fine, but it’s not a big storm like 1996, 2000, 2003, 2009. 2010, 2016. I want to them to get to see a big one. This is actually part of the reason I’m rooting hard. Sure I’m a weenie for snow, but I’ve seen plenty of big dogs, LES blizzards, thundersnow, etc. my kids are young and think 6” is a huge storm. Would love for them to see a big dog. Carroll valley got 2 MECS in 2017 and 2021 where it was the local jackpot zone, but they didn’t get to see those puppies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 euro made two negative shifts this run looking at it. by hour 84, there's less interaction between the two waves. additionally, the kicker is more destructive, stringing it out but stringing it out too late for it to affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @mitchnick uk ens should be rolling in about now. Curious if they reflect the more amped op run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think the Euro and GFS are just meeting in the middle. Wouldn't be that bad of a result 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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