MillvilleWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So long as there is N/S interaction with the strong S/S vort, there will be a decent swath of heavy snow with formidable totals. That much is coming to light. The overall interaction when those two rendezvous will be the difference between a widespread MECS or a HECS that rivals some of the bigger storms in our history. So far the threat looks to be gaining traction, but this is still a very delicate balance. There's still time for changes in either direction. I can't complain about what has been shown on today's runs. UKMET is the only type of storm that would have significant low-level thermal issues that could skunk some of the forum. Until more guidance shows that, I'm not sweating it. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, BristowWx said: How often does the entire state of VA get snow. Even VA beach. The whole state would be under a watch based on that. I like our spot! Models are going to bounce around the next 36 hours. But if we are bouncing between 8 inches and 30 inches, i think we settle around 2 feet. But it’s going to be a wild ride to get there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Throwing in the towel for SE Pennsylvania. Time for spring 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Come on folks....look at the snow predictions at the beginning of this winter. We could be more than triple those predictions by the end of this week. Sustained cold and snow... great winter if the midweek storm verifies. Snow predictions at the start of the season are irrelevant at this point. The ingredients are there for a rare HECS after 9 years of mostly trash winters. Gotta convert. It’s like getting to Super Bowl and getting blown out and being happy you made it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 REASONS TO START THREAD Euro locked in GFS trending towards Euro PSU sniffed out Under 100 hours out Ji not complaining Jim Cantore on his way We don’t lock in snowfall here until it snows lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Snowman. said: I'll take a foot of cold powder any day Blizzard watch. Now that would be epic. Mass panic. Dogs and cats living together. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m kind of in awe people are proclaiming it’s over and it wasn’t good. We are under 100 hours and there are multiple models showing a MECS for a large portion of the forum. Cmon folks snap out of it. We would’ve given our left arm for something even close to this a couple years in a row prior to this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Richmond folks are dancing. and the fat lady is warming up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Come on folks....look at the snow predictions at the beginning of this winter. We could be more than triple those predictions by the end of this week. Sustained cold and snow... great winter if the midweek storm verifies. I give this winter a B. Only because the snow from the first storm hung around for weeks. The snow this week was an appetizer. If we get at least 10" next week and the temps aren't hanging around 35 degrees during the storm, this winter gets an A for me. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: So long as there is N/S interaction with the strong S/S vort, there will be a decent swath of heavy snow with formidable totals. That much is coming to light. The overall interaction when those two rendezvous will be the difference between a widespread MECS or a HECS that rivals some of the bigger storms in our history. So far the threat looks to be gaining traction, but this is still a very delicate balance. There's still time for changes in either direction. I can't complain about what has been shown on today's runs. UKMET is the only type of storm that would have significant low-level thermal issues that could skunk some of the forum. Until more guidance shows that, I'm not sweating it. Very excited to track this one on the models with you the next few days! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Keep the jackpot a little to our southeast until 60hrs out. Then we can start willing it north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How often does the entire state of VA get snow. Even VA beach. The whole state would be under a watch based on that. Brother, can you live with 15 inches or are you going to ask for a refund? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Blizzard watch. Now that would be epic. Mass panic. Dogs and cats living together. Those don't exist anymore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Summary of the WB and Pivotal 12Z runs: EURO, GFS, UKMET, Can., and ICON 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I really hope no one is down about this run? That would be insane IMO Maaan I was away from my phone for a few minutes. Seeing the posts, I thought the snow maps were gonna show what the CMC showed! Instead...it still has us at a foot. So uh...if that's the floor then I mean sheeeesh y'all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m actually OK with the run as long as we don’t keep tending the wrong way 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 When was the last time we had multiple 6"+ snows and a MECS/HECS in the same winter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Each suite we’re getting 1-2 globals with the 20”+ HECS, 2-3 with a 8-15” range, and one with more of a 4-8” deal. They’re just taking turns which is which. Although euro hasn’t been on that lower end for awhile. From what some are saying with this run the euro just misses a full phase. Hence lower totals. To me, every model is keying in on one thing over another. One run it’s the PV strength and location. Another is southern vort. The timing and spacing all have subtle difference which have bigger implications downstream. Overall there is consensus for a region wide 6” event. Upsides are 15”. The max top end could be 20”. Anyone thinking this is a 20” and ONLY 20” storm is fucking stupid 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Keep the jackpot a little to our southeast until 60hrs out. Then we can start willing it north. With a phasing event, you may not be wrong. This isn’t some progressive trash wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, yoda said: Those don't exist anymore Damn cancel culture. Fine but I am issuing one at my house. That translates to beer and salty snacks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’d say that was a very successful 12z suite. GFS and Icon became much more favorable. Euro and Ukie stayed very good. CMC was the only real downer, and I don’t think that’s worth stressing over. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Crawling. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Anyone bitching about this needs a new hobby: 4 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Meh. Not a great trend on the Euro the past two runs. You can’t seriously “meh” a 13” storm… come on now if it was showing 4-6” then I can understand but this is still a rock solid MECS for all of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, H2O said: From what some are saying with this run the euro just misses a full phase. Hence lower totals. To me, every model is keying in on one thing over another. One run it’s the PV strength and location. Another is southern vort. The timing and spacing all have subtle difference which have bigger implications downstream. Overall there is consensus for a region wide 6” event. Upsides are 15”. The max top end could be 20”. Anyone thinking this is a 20” and ONLY 20” storm is fucking stupid There’s definitely a reason we almost never get HECS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Blizzard watch. Now that would be epic. Mass panic. Dogs and cats living together. Sadly, I don't think they do Blizzard Watches anymore. Maybe mets here can confirm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: HOLY F’N SH*T!!!! LFGGGGG I figured I'd be waiting a number of years for a major storm after I moved south... let's do this. Idga single F what happens north of our yards. All ingredients are in place for a cold start and finish major storm.... I'm starting to feel this one but ready for the nard punch lol 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 What the fuck is wrong with us when there's gnashing of teeth at.... a foot of snow? Did our latitude change and nobody told me? 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Brother, can you live with 15 inches or are you going to ask for a refund? I think I am ok with it. Anything above a foot is like who gives a shit anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: What the fuck is wrong with us when there's gnashing of teeth at.... a foot of snow? Did our latitude change and nobody told me? I think some are worried that it trends further down in a future run since the CMC burped. That's the only anxiety that partially makes sense... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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