87storms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Winter is coming back! PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 2nd half of peak climo might hit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 20 hours ago, mitchnick said: 2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If February turns out to be prolific I wish it had 31 days in itMeh…I like snow, but I also like being 3 days closer to spring lol. 1 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Meh…I like snow, but I also like being 3 days closer to spring lol. If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one. 1 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 15 hours ago, mitchnick said: Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps. In addition to maintaining the SSW on the 6z run, now at 300hrs, Gfs has a 2nd hit to what's left of the vortex at the end of its run. Follow-up hits like this are classic to consequential SSW events. Difficult not to get excited for the next 6, maybe even 8, weeks. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 20 minutes ago, 87storms said: Meh…I like snow, but I also like being 3 days closer to spring lol. Isnt there another thread for tracking mud season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 EPS snow probabilities at DC: 90% chance for 1+" of snow 65% chance for 3+" of snow 52% chance for 6+" of snow 8% chance of 12+" of snow It should be noted that all of this comes from Feb 10 onwards, only half of the ensemble run. Fun times are ahead for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one. Nah, it doesn’t snow here enough to justify longer than 3 months of cold lol. I need my seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, bncho said: EPS snow probabilities at DC: 90% chance for 1+" of snow 65% chance for 3+" of snow 50% chance for 6+" of snow 8% chance of 12+" of snow It should be noted that all of this comes from Feb 10 onwards, only half of the ensemble run. Fun times are ahead for sure. 50% for 6"+ and 8% for 12"+ for Feb 10th onward is crazy 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Winter is coming back! PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. Good call, ya little rat! Keep the winter weather weenies happy! 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: "Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush Watch out there, sending up another @ravensrule signal! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: If February turns out to be prolific I wish it had 31 days in it Actually it does. We just happen to call them March 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Ha haa, close this thread. We won't dig out until May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 MJO on GEFS yesterday compared to today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: MJO on GEFS yesterday compared to today... Hard to tell with the main line because its so noisy. But the group of yellow lines show more forward progress in the new run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week. I think that's a good sign this far out. The more we can be on the cold side of the boundary now the more wiggle room as things adjust as we get closer unless I'm not understanding the boundary discussion if thats the case then darn lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week. Again, I’d rather be on the north side of a storm at range than riding the fall line. Like Aldie says 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I think that's a good sign this far out. The more we can be on the cold side of the boundary now the more wiggle room as things adjust as we get closer unless I'm not understanding the boundary discussion if thats the case then darn lol 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Again, I’d rather be on the north side of a storm at range than riding the fall line. Like Aldie says I don't take it as a bad sign at this range at all for the reasons you stated and in light of operationals and ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: "Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush Says the second biggest sicko on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one. If I were gonna ban someone over one, it’d be that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 4 hours ago, Ji said: Gfs trending warner with zr event. Big shock . Still has it but not as potent with temps around 29-30 So you’re saying the GFS on its own is not rock solid? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week. Wonder if surpression depression returns and eliminates our chances of meaningful snow, because of either too much blocking or a too far displaced TPV in SE Canada or even further East. I have heard the cases for more NW track this go around in Feb, and early March, more latent heat, shorter wavelenghts, etc. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Every new day, a more negative AO forecast, also a dropping NAO, and surprise the PNA has improved as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So you’re saying the GFS on its own is not rock solid? Hey let’s not forget the super long range NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 31 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I think that's a good sign this far out. The more we can be on the cold side of the boundary now the more wiggle room as things adjust as we get closer unless I'm not understanding the boundary discussion if thats the case then darn lol Plus with Chuck's raging +NAO there isn't anything to suppress so that will come N and W 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder if surpression depression returns and eliminates our chances of meaningful snow, because of either too much blocking or a too far displaced TPV in SE Canada or even further East. I have heard the cases for more NW track this go around in Feb, and early March, more latent heat, shorter wavelenghts, etc. So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct. Hopefully not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct. "Save your Confederate shovels, for the South will snow again?" But seriously and more on topic: I really don't think we'll end up having to worry about being blasted with cold and dry so much (or at least hope not!). That doesn't normally seem to be a thing in February and early March around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If I were gonna ban someone over one, it’d be that one. This is a 4 seasons hobby for me. I ain’t no fugazi lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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