AtlanticWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 when are we getting a thread? after the gfs cave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Imagine this place if the GFS caves. To me that process already started at 0z last night...so we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The latest from LWX -- Changed Discussion -- A cold dome of high pressure overhead will move off to our north and east on Wednesday. A low pressure system will quickly develop over southeast Georgia around late morning or midday Wednesday, before moving up the Eastern U.S. Coastline toward Cape Hatteras and rapidly intensifying into a big winter storm Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees below average only reaching near or slightly below or slightly above freezing, setting the stage for some accumulating snowfall widespread across our region. The winter storm expected Wednesday into Thursday shows a track and intensity that could equate to several inches of snow. This particular winter storm is still 4 to 5 days out from now so there remains some uncertainty as to the exact track and exact intensity and which model leans toward the best solution. The NAM model only goes out as far as midday Tuesday and can only show us signs of some front-running warm advection light snowfall spreading east across the western Ohio Valley. The GFS model shows a fast moving winter storm that could stay just offshore from Georgia to the Outer Banks and then out to sea. Thus, this track and speed would favor a few inches of snow across the southeastern third of our region from midday Wednesday through late Thursday. The UKMET is between the GFS, and the models listed below. The EUROPEAN model shows a strong winter storm that rides along the coastline from Georgia to the Outer Banks, slows slightly while moving north into southern New England, while rapidly intensifying. Because this model shows the rapid intensification between the mouth of the Chesapeake and New Jersey, it has much more snow than the GFS in our region. The CANADIAN shows a fast moving winter storm that rides along the coastline as well with a similar amount of snow as the EUROPEAN but may have its track a few miles inland which could decrease totals a little. Bottom line is that we may be looking a major winter storm but with subtle to moderate uncertainties in terms of snow amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: when are we getting a thread? after the gfs cave They're probably gonna wait until tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Ok, GFS is coming up to the good panels in like 5 mins No changes so far vs 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We done after this? If we get 1-2’ I’m cool with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: when are we getting a thread? after the gfs cave Last time we got a thread this early everything went to shit. Not mentioning any names. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 No thread until at least sunday night or monday morning 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Not any huge changes so far, SFC or above noise level at H5 so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No thread until at least sunday night or monday morning Was considering tomorrow after 12z...but if yall wanna wait, im fine with that. This is democracy manifest! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I know we shit on the GFS, but I kinda need it to be on board for it to be real, ya know? Like solidified? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I know we shit on the GFS, but I kinda need it to be on board for it to be real, ya know? Like solidified? If it doesn't do it by 18z and everything else basically holds, it's going from frustrating to pathetic in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Was considering tomorrow after 12z...but if yall wanna wait, im fine with that. This is democracy manifest! Given the potential, I'd vote for 0z tomorrow. That way we can have another full cycle of model runs just to make sure, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Ok, starting to see some slightly above noise level changes that appear to be positive. Lets see where it goes 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know we shit on the GFS, but I kinda need it to be on board for it to be real, ya know? Like solidified? Agree, we have to get the Goofus on the train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, susqushawn said: Ok that looks promising 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The ridge out west being taller and more Euro like has me excited early on. I’m so waiting on a “FOLKS” to drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This starts in under 100 hours. Feels like 1,000 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Low down south and more precip. She’s comin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 It does look a bit better down south..angle of attack..but it's still too early to call it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Let’s go people! 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Less suppression in the NE. Better phasing out west….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: It does look a bit better down south..angle of attack..but it's still too early to call it I’m calling it. It’s gunna be good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks less strung out than previous runs at 93 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looking H5 vort at hour 87 and I think the GFS is going to be better, it may even cave more or less fully to the Euro. The southern shortwave isn’t outrunning the tpv 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, TSSN+ said: I’m calling it. It’s gunna be good Heh, not as brave as you. Not trying to get hopes up prematurely. Hmm...that phrasing could use work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gfs should join the party this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Incoming 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 It's a better run so far...but like I said...not trying to be first to call it...but right. I just need another panel or two 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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