Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We have a met on our discord. One of the best. He pointed out how the AI runs at 28km resolution. It can’t handle convection. “It’ll cave eventually”It’s getting there . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Ji said: Is that less thsn 00z? 1 hour ago, Ji said: The eps are 10:1 right? Cause this storm is certainly not that 6z was significant better No one posts them (probably because they are almost never as good as the mean maps because these aren’t skewed by outliers) but the mode and prob maps are more important and shifted the jack from SE to right up or even NW of 95. Mode 6” prob 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Keep losing inches in the off runs though this was not as bad as the 18z last night I think most agree that anything under 10 now would be heartbreaking The difference between 17 and 20 inches from 0z to 6z 5 days out isn’t really losing anything lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @Ji and yea the ens are 10-1 and lower resolution which you have to take into account when comparing to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, jayyy said: The difference between 17 and 20 inches from 0z to 6z 5 days out isn’t really losing anything lol He’s losing something alright 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: We have a met on our discord. One of the best. He pointed out how the AI runs at 28km resolution. It can’t handle convection. “It’ll cave eventually” It’s getting there . So it does the NAM thing then chasing convection south of us right out to sea and not phasing because honestly it looked like the 6z gfs was also doing this as well to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z was significant better No one posts them (probably because they are almost never as good as the mean maps because these aren’t skewed by outliers) but the mode and prob maps are more important and shifted the jack from SE to right up or even NW of 95. Mode 6” prob Makes sense when you compare 0z member slp locations to 6z. Lots of tucked on 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m 100% sure (ok, 99%) that they will be an east coast storm this week. 80-90% sure it’s going to snow a lot somewhere between RDU/ORF and BOS. 75% sure of shovelable snow in LWX WFO area. 99% chance of Ji being disappointed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: We have a met on our discord. One of the best. He pointed out how the AI runs at 28km resolution. It can’t handle convection. “It’ll cave eventually” It’s getting there . Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, Interstate said: Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees below average only reaching near or slightly below or slightly above freezing, setting the stage for some accumulating snowfall widespread across our region. why not just say near freezing. Lol That sentence reminds me of those days in High School when you had to submit a paper with AT LEAST a certain amount of words for it to count. You do anything you can! 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 17 or 18 inches I can shovel I think. 2' that the 0z had might have been a bit much for this old man. You can always call @Jebman, he'll come by with his shovel to dig you out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That sentence reminds me of those days in High School when you had to submit a paper with AT LEAST a certain amount of words for it to count. You do anything you can! It will be very very very very very very very cold lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That sentence reminds me of those days in High School when you had to submit a paper with AT LEAST a certain amount of words for it to count. You do anything you can! Hahaha! I definitely remember those days, counting each word to make sure I got at least the minimum in those 500 or 1000 word essay type assignments! And they'd always tell you that short words didn't count (like "a", "and", "the", "or"...)!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, Amped said: 991 we can do better. 975 over OC or bust Hey now, I know we've been the jack zone, but we would like to be part of this storm too. No reason everyone can't win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So...stayed up until near midnight last night. Got @stormtracker's buzzed/drunken PBP for the GFS (F the GFS!!), which did it's usual sucking...@Ralph Wiggum's 15-yard personal foul penalty and red card call on the CMC, which then looked like a bomb. Decided not to stay up for the Euro. Come in this morning expecting pages of ugh!, only to find the Euro bombs us again at both 00Z and 06Z, and now the 06Z GFS is coming more in line with a good storm! Nice surprise to wake up to! Let's bring this MF-er FOLKS storm home! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: It will be very very very very very very very cold lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: So...stayed up until near midnight last night. Got @stormtracker's buzzed/drunken PBP for the GFS (F the GFS!!), which did it's usual sucking...@Ralph Wiggum's 15-yard personal foul penalty and red card call on the CMC, which then looked like a bomb. Decided not to stay up for the Euro. Come in this morning expecting pages of ugh!, only to find the Euro bombs us again at both 00Z and 06Z, and now the 06Z GFS is coming more in line with a good storm! Nice surprise to wake up to! Let's bring this MF-er FOLKS storm home! I'm surprisingly alive and spry this morning. GFS was worse off than me last night. Ralph is banned from model access. It's a new day gang, LFG! 8 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm surprisingly alive and spry this morning. GFS was worse off than me last night. Ralph is banned from model access. It's a new day gang, LFG! I imagined this was you last night. 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm surprisingly alive and spry this morning. GFS was worse off than me last night. Ralph is banned from model access. It's a new day gang, LFG! Haha, right! The GFS was more drunk than you and you had much better booze than what it was drinking!!! Glad you're feeling OK after that! The 06Z looked notably better, hopefully we have a convergence to something good here. And yes...LFG, FOLKS, JAWS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, aldie 22 said: I imagined this was you last night. Accurate 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He’s losing something alright Can’t lose what you never had. Bless his heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have a quarter mile driveway if you include the part shared with 5 neighbors. One of them has a tractor and will plow it but if they aren’t home or I need to get out before they get to it no way I’m shoveling that ish. That's what kids are for!!! At least once they're old enough. I had to shovel our driveway every winter in northeast Ohio, and believe me that was pretty darned often! Not that I minded since I've always loved snow. Of course, as soon as I went to college, my parents then got a snowblower! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So I have plans next Thursday to take a rear wheel drive delta 88 Oldsmobile with cheap overused worn out factory tires on a leisurely cruise around the DMV. I thought I’d start with a drive down 15 to 66 the stop at Manassas because someone told me back in the 90s “they’re a cut above the rest”. Then I’ll take back roads up to 50 and get on 50 east to the Fairfax County PKWY waving to my brother as I pass Chantilly then stop for a cup of coffee in reston town center with my sister. After that I’ll hop on the Toll road to 495 and do a loop around the beltway because 5 lanes of constantly merging traffic sounds like a fun afternoon. After a full loop it should be about 5 and I’ll pop on 270 north because that should be a joy that time of day. 270 will get me to 27 which I’ll causally ride along the parrs ridge through exposed fields cause why not, all they way to Manchester. What should I expect? 2 24 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/1890758481818390593?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: That's what kids are for!!! At least once they're old enough. I had to shovel our driveway every winter in northeast Ohio, and believe me that was pretty darned often! Not that I minded since I've always loved snow. Of course, as soon as I went to college, my parents then got a snowblower! Funny, I used to work with a guy from Timmons Ontario (which is waaaaaaaay north) and he said the same thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like the last 2 runs of the euro is the perfect setup to steal a sizeable chunk of happiness right out of a nice snowstorm come gametime 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So I have plans next Thursday to take a rear wheel drive delta 88 Oldsmobile with cheap overused worn out factory tires on a leisurely cruise around the DMV. I thought I’d start with a drive down 15 to 66 the stop at Manassas because someone told me back in the 90s “they’re a cut above the rest”. Then I’ll take back roads up to 50 and get on 50 east to the Fairfax County PKWY waving to my brother as I pass Chantilly then stop for a cup of coffee in reston town center with my sister. After that I’ll hop on the Toll road to 495 and do a loop around the beltway because 5 lanes of constantly merging traffic sounds like a fun afternoon. After a full loop it should be about 5 and I’ll pop on 270 north because that should be a joy that time of day. 270 will get me to 27 which I’ll causally ride along the parrs ridge through exposed fields cause why not, all they way to Manchester. What should I expect? To run out of gas?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Ji said: https://x.com/ryankanerwx/status/1890758481818390593?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA It’s finally coming to the party 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So I have plans next Thursday to take a rear wheel drive delta 88 Oldsmobile with cheap overused worn out factory tires on a leisurely cruise around the DMV. I thought I’d start with a drive down 15 to 66 the stop at Manassas because someone told me back in the 90s “they’re a cut above the rest”. Then I’ll take back roads up to 50 and get on 50 east to the Fairfax County PKWY waving to my brother as I pass Chantilly then stop for a cup of coffee in reston town center with my sister. After that I’ll hop on the Toll road to 495 and do a loop around the beltway because 5 lanes of constantly merging traffic sounds like a fun afternoon. After a full loop it should be about 5 and I’ll pop on 270 north because that should be a joy that time of day. 270 will get me to 27 which I’ll causally ride along the parrs ridge through exposed fields cause why not, all they way to Manchester. What should I expect? A car that old will probably change the local climate and turn it too warm to snow due to CO2 emissions 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 44 minutes ago, Heisy said: We have a met on our discord. One of the best. He pointed out how the AI runs at 28km resolution. It can’t handle convection. “It’ll cave eventually” It’s getting there . Where is the AI? I'm an old-timer using TTidbits. The GFS and Icon push the SLP OTS. But I just thought it outran the northern energy. How can they tell it's chasing convection rather than just outstripping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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