mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: . 17 or 18 inches I can shovel I think. 2' that the 0z had might have been a bit much for this old man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 17 or 18 inches I can shovel I think. 2' that the 0z had might have been a bit much for this old man. 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Even better! So much wiggle room. It’s perfect. Don’t have to sweat small shifts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Still great. I like the distribution of the snow too. We all win hereYea, gotta watch that trend though, H5 reminded me of the 00z Ukie there. I thought last nights Ukie was sort of a nice blend of all the models and boom 6z euro looks very similar at H5.We’ll see what 12z brings . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here's probably why the 6z is lighter. 0z kept the tpv intact while the 6z had split it and was starting to consolidate again as it approached the east coast. I think in future runs, should the tpv remain consolidated, you'll get those 2' numbers again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That 0z Euro is absolute perfection. Tucked in 986 low as the storm departs. HECS for most of us. Nothing less than breathtaking. But I’ll be more than happy with the 6z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Yea, gotta watch that trend though, H5 reminded me of the 00z Ukie there. I thought last nights Ukie was sort of a nice blend of all the models and boom 6z euro looks very similar at H5. We’ll see what 12z brings . The trend in the euro appears to be a large snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here's probably why the 6z is lighter. 0z kept the tpv intact while the 6z had split it and was starting to consolidate again as it approached the east coast. I think in future runs, should the tpv remain consolidated, you'll get those 2' numbers again.Yep, most of the data looks like that outside the cmc (00z run) so im doubtful we see that reverse. I think that was just a correction run personally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The trend in the euro appears to be a large snowstorm Right but it was a big move towards like the icon at H5 with a stretched out shortwave. Like my Philly discord posters mention that could cause issues down the road for sure. Something to keep in mind.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Heisy said: Right but it was a big move towards like the icon at H5 with a stretched out shortwave. Like my Philly discord posters mention that could cause issues down the road for sure. Something to keep in mind. . Yeah, I didn't like seeing that elongation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Heisy said: Right but it was a big move towards like the icon at H5 with a stretched out shortwave. Like my Philly discord posters mention that could cause issues down the road for sure. Something to keep in mind. . I dunno man of course it COULD do a rug pull but it’s like 120 hours away with DC and Philly in the middle of a giant band of snow. Pretty good spot. Def not worried about whatever the icon is doing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, I didn't like seeing that elongation. Otoh, if it keeps getting wound up, we run the risk of overamplication and resulting track issues. Fine line and I'm sure we'll beat the analysis of it over the next 5 days like a dead horse. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Otoh, if it keeps getting wound up, we run the risk of overamplication and resulting track issues. Fine line and I'm sure we'll beat the analysis of it over the next 5 days like a dead horse. Lol I know it’s our tendency to do that but if you think about the big picture we are in a pretty great spot. This is where we want to be. 5 days out from the storm, arctic air in place, euro showing a bomb, gfs slowly figuring it out. Good ensemble support from EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z Eps snowfall mean beefier than 0z surprisingly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: 6z Eps snowfall mean beefier than 0z surprisingly. Eps total thru 138hrs 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 6Z EPS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Keep losing inches in the off runs though this was not as bad as the 18z last night I think most agree that anything under 10 now would be heartbreaking 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps total thru 138hrs lol that should calm your nerves about moving towards the ICON right? That’s beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 6Z EPSIs that less thsn 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 37 minutes ago, Heisy said: . 06 euro stays the course!! Euro been consistent for many runs now!! It's locked in!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS Looks good. Let’s get another bomb at 12z to get this thread going again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'll be curious to see the AI. At 06z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Guys when you post maps…do total and then which ever one gives us the most snow between the 10:1 or ratio map In other words…post the snowiest map 5 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Eps total thru 138hrsThe eps are 10:1 right? Cause this storm is certainly not that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z gfs was a major step toward a euro-like solution. Much closer to a phase than any earlier runs. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Ji said: The eps are 10:1 right? Cause this storm is certainly not that I think with the cold dome. Ratios. Could be 15:1. In my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 From sterling.... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold dome of high pressure overhead will move off to our north and east on Wednesday. A low pressure system will quickly develop over southeast Georgia around late morning or midday Wednesday, before moving up the Eastern U.S. Coastline toward Cape Hatteras and rapidly intensifying into a big winter storm Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees below average only reaching near or slightly below or slightly above freezing, setting the stage for some accumulating snowfall widespread across our region. The winter storm expected Wednesday into Thursday shows a track and intensity that could equate to several inches of snow. This particular winter storm is still 4 to 5 days out from now so there remains some uncertainty as to the exact track and exact intensity and which model leans toward the best solution. The NAM model only goes out as far as midday Tuesday and can only show us signs of some front-running warm advection light snowfall spreading east across the western Ohio Valley. The GFS model shows a fast moving winter storm that could stay just offshore from Georgia to the Outer Banks and then out to sea. Thus, this track and speed would favor a few inches of snow across the southeastern third of our region from midday Wednesday through late Thursday. The UKMET is between the GFS, and the models listed below. The EUROPEAN model shows a strong winter storm that rides along the coastline from Georgia to the Outer Banks, slows slightly while moving north into southern New England, while rapidly intensifying. Because this model shows the rapid intensification between the mouth of the Chesapeake and New Jersey, it has much more snow than the GFS in our region. The CANADIAN shows a fast moving winter storm that rides along the coastline as well with a similar amount of snow as the EUROPEAN but may have its track a few miles inland which could decrease totals a little. Bottom line is that we may be looking a major winter storm but with subtle to moderate uncertainties in terms of snow amounts 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Keep losing inches in the off runs though this was not as bad as the 18z last nightI think most agree that anything under 10 now would be heartbreaking No 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Anyone have the 06z Euro Ens individual member plots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Anyone have the 06z Euro Ens individual member plots?I have it but I’m not going to post them. I haven’t seen them nor want too. 12z will be out soon enough. Enjoy your 17 for a few hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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