February Medium/Long Range Thread

[DarkSharkWX]

beautiful EPS run, 6" mean/median down to DC

[Stormchaserchuck1]

EPS is bringing back the Dec/Jan pattern

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GEFS still has this.. Maybe it's a bias because of how the last 7 years have gone in February? It's had the pattern at Day 13-15 for the last 7 days, and it doesn't seem to stick as the times get closer

You can see the differences between the two models in the Pacific

[DarkSharkWX]

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GEFS still has this.. Maybe it's a bias because of how the last 7 years have gone in February? It's had the pattern at Day 13-15 for the last 7 days, and it doesn't seem to stick as the times get closer

You can see the differences between the two models in the Pacific

The gefs is trending towards the EPS and it’s only a few days behind getting to the same place even if it’s right.  At least with respect to the day 15 pattern.   

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE this a -NAO?

[Ji]

The snow stats for February since 2015 have been shocking

21 inches at Dulles…total

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE this a -NAO?

I'll check with Chuck..

All the teleconnections of interest are negative there, including the PNA lol. Chuck should be happy.

[Ji]

Gfs trending warner with zr event. Big shock
. Still has it but not as potent with temps around 29-30

[CAPE]

The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs.

Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar.

 

[Ji]

The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs.
Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar.

 

Looks to good to be true

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks to good to be true

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks to good to be true

10 days out. Hopefully the trend is a little colder and souther, and not the other direction.

[Ji]

10 days out. Hopefully the trend is a little colder and souther, and not the other direction.

A lot can change in 10 days but the data is as snowy as I’ve seen on the ensembles in years especially in February

Last year at this time…the great looks we had in the ensembles were starting to fade. This year the opposite so far

[Ji]

The AI seems to have 2 coastals on the 12th and 14th that appear all snow lol

[Weather Will]

The midweek ice event looks marginal at best...more wet than icy. WB 6Z GEFS

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

The AI seems to have 2 coastals on the 12th and 14th that appear all snow lol

The second one looks like a cold Miller A storm that takes a classic track.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

The second one looks like a cold Miller A storm that takes a classic track.

The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range.  

Yeah this look is probably a little too soon. Hopefully we get there. That is a pretty nice track though.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah this look is probably a little too soon. Hopefully we get there. That is a pretty nice track though.

Chuck will find something wrong with it. 

[brooklynwx99]

nobody could have seen this coming!

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Chuck will find something wrong with it. 

well yeah- look at that +PNA!

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nobody could have seen this coming!

Strongest upper divergence north of the MJO convection. Euro has the wave propagating eastward so an extended jet core makes sense.

[psuhoffman]

I’ll take my chances on a repeat of Januarys pattern but in Feb/March. Probably will be wetter. Shorter wavelengths and increased heat south of the boundary will make it easier to get storms wound up also. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember.  

I guess the QBO phase is the one element that doesnt align, but the amount of impact it actually has always seemed a little nebulous to me.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I guess the QBO phase is the one element that doesnt align, but the amount of impact it actually has always seemed a little nebulous to me.

The last couple times we expected it to help it didn’t seem to do squatola. We already had one period of blocking despite the “hostile” QBO 

[Weather Will]

Winter is coming back!

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Winter is coming back!

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 

"Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Winter is coming back!

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler's Knob Sunday morning. 

We have all the signs LOL