psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m worried about the GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is one thing you know who could cancel and I wouldn’t mind 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Good that means he can’t find any reason to tell us it’s not happening. He’s busy measuring the exact degree latitude of the 50-50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Tom said: is someone able to post the snow map for the Philly area, this is the hoping region hoping for some help 8 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m worried about the GFS Why? It's close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is one thing you know who could cancel and I wouldn’t mind Forecasting would probably improve without the gfs existing . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, nj2va said: No. Philly sucks I agree philly sucks just happen to be here in NJ for family and money 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @Ravens94 NEMD was pummeled man. Where are you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Crazy dispersement of heavy snow from VA to NYC . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Tom said: I agree philly sucks just happen to be here in NJ for family and money I’m originally from NJ and still have family in Burlington, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties. Y’all get buried too on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lol the colors. That's only like 3" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Why? It's close.It’s cool. We’ll just pretend it’s 2008 and that the GFS is of course too flat / late on phasing. Back then you could legit bank on it being 100-200 miles too far SE. Every. Single. Time. Go out toFucking Seais what some folks called it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m pretty sure I’d let one of you guys cut one of my fingers off for that euro run to verify. Staying up for EPS then ready to do it all over again tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hold this till Sunday night and we golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro going bonkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Why? It's close. I believe that was sarcasm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ya know I’ve argued for years the 12k NAM just ads noise and confusion. Sure once in a blue moon it scores a coup but 90% of the time when it’s off on a tangent it’s wrong. We’d be better if it just didn’t exist. 3k ads value because as long as it matches the globals on Synoptics it can see features they can’t. But im getting to that point with the GFS. Since the last major upgrade that fixed some of the early biases they were causing the new euro after its core upgrade to be jumpy, it’s been a rock. Of cores it’s not always right, but it’s right or closer to right often enough that the other models tend to just add confusion unnecessarily. And when another model has been closer on rare occasions it’s almost never been the gfs. Maybe one fluke run here or there but what good is that because you don’t know what run is right. It’s sad but bc the euro and to a lesser extent the Ggem have made significant improvements and the GFS has not kept up, it’s becoming kinda obsolete right now to me. I feel like I’d better off not even looking at it most of the time. Wonder if NCEP sees this too and has any plans to do anything about it. I dont doubt we have the knowledge. I think it must be a funding issue. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A lot of possibilities on the table. I'd feel better if we had low pressures at the latitude on both sides, closer, a slower mid-latitude flow, but a block over the top can be enough to buckle the flow under it. GEFS did trend stronger with the Canadian block today.. if it times right, we can do a monster. Still a lot of variation though in what could happen imo. You want to see more ensembles showing a hit. Watching closely. It could be a fun storm! Hopefully it holds. I'm not strongly for or against it right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 32 minutes ago, Ji said: yea we are down to the CMC after the euro folds lol. And you know how that will end Tell us again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m originally from NJ and still have family in Burlington, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties. Y’all get buried too on that run. I have some extended family from south Jersey. I have memories from when I was a kid of my second cousin who was a first grade teacher and her license plate read "Bud Babe". Outstanding people, really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Thickening clouds Wednesday after a morning low around 10. Then a high in the low 20's with snow breaking out in the afternoon. Knowing it's going to snow for the next 24 hours with 2ft. on the way. This is why we do this. We need to bring this one home. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, jayyy said: 20+ area wide is arguably a HECS in my book with the temps being at 18-22 during the storm--it has to be a low end HECS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gfs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Tell us again reverse phycology.....and the AI not folding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, Ji said: yea we are down to the CMC after the euro folds lol. And you know how that will end Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Still looks more similar to 12z than 18z It was the h5 and speed of 12z but the progression of 18z wrt developing the arctic wave and rolling through with that feature. It was the best of both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, T. August said: @Ravens94 NEMD was pummeled man. Where are you We get buried on the Euro. I would love this! Another thing too is if we do get a good snowfall, temps should be cool for a while, at least below 40. The upper latitude pattern goes south, but we do hold a trough it looks like for up to 7 days after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A lot of possibilities on the table. I'd feel better if we had low pressures at the latitude on both sides, closer, a slower mid-latitude flow, but a block over the top can be enough to buckle the flow under it. GEFS did trend stronger with the Canadian block today.. if it times right, we can do a monster. Still a lot of variation though in what could happen imo. You want to see more ensembles showing a hit. Watching closely. It could be a fun storm! Hopefully it holds. I'm not strongly for or against it right now. Not for nothing… every major ensemble had this past Wednesday as a big hit for us 5+ days out and the OPs said nope. Turned out they were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It was the h5 and speed of 12z but the progression of 18z wrt developing the arctic wave and rolling through with that feature. It was the best of both. How is the Feb 25 window looking? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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