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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d rather over amp then under. Another miss se would be unbearable lol

I agree, although keep in mind our absolute huge snows (18”+) DC typically does very well also.  We want the jack zone centered just southeast of us. That’s when we get super high ratios and that NW death band and avoid the dry slot. If DC starts having too much precip type issues and some 6” crud storm we can do very well, but the jack will be NW of us also on a huge storm like this. 
 

Plus we can all win with this if it tracks right. This could have a huge heavy snowfall dispersion. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda lit rn. Not gonna lie. I’m 50 and too old for this shit. Not even home yet. I should be by the relevant panels.   Here’s the guy who does the shit pbp. I’m so buzzed rn 

IMG_2203.jpeg

That’s a very good look Ra*dy and 20-25 years ago for those weather conferences and gatherings was a while ago 

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I've been drinking since 5pm cut me some slack :lol:

Ok but even drunk im kinda curios what you saw at what timeframe that made you think that. Honestly. Because as it was coming out there was no frame at either the surface or h5 where I felt uh oh. Actually from pretty early on I was thinking “oh shit this is gonna be nuts”. Wondering what you were looking at…

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ok but even drunk im kinda curios what you saw at what timeframe that made you think that. Hensley. Because as it was coming out there was no frame at either the surface or h5 where I felt uh ok. Actually from pretty early on I was thinking “oh shit this is gonna be nuts”. Wondering what you were looking at…

Probably the inside of his eyelids 

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18 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

          Cmc a lil too far west. For my taste and gfs too far east lol.     Euro probably be middle of the road ;) any one see ukmet?

Low res UKMET maps are out. It appears to have held with a solution similar to 12z.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok but even drunk im kinda curios what you saw at what timeframe that made you think that. Hensley. Because as it was coming out there was no frame at either the surface or h5 where I felt uh ok. Actually from pretty early on I was thinking “oh shit this is gonna be nuts”. Wondering what you were looking at…

84hr. Looked flatter out ahead and more N and W less amped with things out west. It was a bad take.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

84hr. Looked flatter out ahead and more N and W less amped with things out west. It was a bad take.

Your right it was flatter initially but it didn't matter. Once the TPV dropped south it just went bonkers.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

84hr. Looked flatter out ahead and more N and W less amped with things out west. It was a bad take.

Ok you know what I can see what you saw. That’s just way too early. But I see it. But even then there are signs that early flat flow won’t matter. 1) the wave is more amplified. 2) look at how the TPV lobe is already more disconnected out west and ahead of schedule in the process of breaking off. Those 2 things offset the flat flow you were noticing. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

UKIE a general 4-5” 10:1, 8” jackpot around Newport News. Guys…

yea we are down to the CMC after the euro folds lol. And you know how that will end

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