February Medium/Long Range Thread

[jayyy]

Now we just have to see it hold for two weeks. Gonna be tough with that gnarly +NAO and -PNA correlation though…

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a growing list of new posters that don’t make much sense to me. They post with an air of certainty but what they say makes no damn sense. 
 

Let me be clear. I am not the smartest person in here. Not even close. There are plenty of topics I don’t know jack about. But I would never go into a medical forum and start posting about the efficacy of some drug I don’t know shit about. Or join a car forum and start posting about how to fix a transmission.  

You kind of make stuff up sometimes. 

You did the same thing earlier in the year saying that in the ENSO thread there were people hoping for X for Y Winter. Never happened. I can also assume you are pointing the new users/guests to my post, since there is no one that has really posted analysis? 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some squall in the 80s where some places got 7” in an hour!  There was that inverted trough in 2009 where places in southern PA got 11” in 2-3 hours. I’d almost love that more than a regular 20” storm. 

11" 2-3 HOURS?? Goodness gracious...gotta see if anybody got video of that!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, jayyy said:

Now we just have to see it hold for two weeks. Gonna be tough with that gnarly +NAO and -PNA correlation though…

Models seem to be changing on the 500mb pattern. Still early, the GFS has been really different 4 runs ago to this run, so would like to see some consistency..

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

11" 2-3 HOURS?? Goodness gracious...gonna see if anybody got video of that!

There's an article in the local Lancaster Newspaper about that event. It was incredibly wild to see. 

[Ji]

Craziest nba trade

[Weather Will]

For me, this potential gives me some comfort that we can still have winter in the Mid Atlantic....with a little luck lots of tracking on deck! WB 0Z GFS epic run....

[jayyy]

11" 2-3 HOURS?? Goodness gracious...gonna see if anybody got video of that!

Yep. I lived in Lancaster county in the winter of 09. Just outside Manheim. Saw about 8.5” of snow in roughly 2 hours via thunder snow

[jayyy]

Models seem to be changing on the 500mb pattern. Still early, the GFS has been really different 4 runs ago to this run, so would like to see some consistency..

I was being sarcastic for sure. Long way to go but there’s a clear trend on most ensembles

[Ji]

11" 2-3 HOURS?? Goodness gracious...gotta see if anybody got video of that!

We don’t get that in 2 years

[midatlanticweather]

GFS was a weenie dream in the long range - wow

 

[Ji]

GFS was a weenie dream in the long range - wow
 

The best part was it wasn’t one storm . There is no way we’re going to win all these storms

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nobody cares about the ice storm Wednesday? That's more interesting than LR GFS.

[Ji]

Nobody cares about the ice storm Wednesday? That's more interesting than LR GFS.

No other model has it

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The best part was it wasn’t one storm . There is no way we’re going to win all these storms

No... that was why it was a dream! LOL! 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

No other model has it

Not to nearly the same extent but 00z EURO for awareness 

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

No other model has it

Icon give some ice

 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

This reminds me of the Jan 5 storm when you were more interested in the storm after it. I know your more excited about Feb 20-March 5 as you are hardly talking about anything before Feb 15 but the euro ensemble are the best I’ve seen since January 5 for the Feb 10—15 window

After seeing the 18z gfs…I get it but we have a chance man

I said I’m less confident about what happens between now and Feb 20 not that it has no chance. The issue is historically models have teased us a lot from a week out in TNH -epo +AO patterns only to shift NW. This includes some of the analogs I’m riding. I remember around Feb 1 in 2018 we were optimistic about a similar pattern. There were epic runs with tons of hits. In the end we got like 2-3” from one wave and a lot of rain. Something similar happened in 2017 also. Yea it could go like 2014 but more often this pattern we end up on the wrong side. Not always. This year has been colder so maybe we get the rare win. But Chuck isn’t totally wrong about his reservations. But he is too sure and extending it too long imo. But this isn’t a sure thing. This type of pattern is usually better for the upper Midwest and interior New England than here. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO for 12th.

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

11" 2-3 HOURS?? Goodness gracious...gotta see if anybody got video of that!

Feb 2013 I got 5” in 90 mins from a squall.  During the Feb 10 2010 storm I got 12” in 3 hours at the start. That’s the heaviest snows I’ve experienced here. 

[Ji]

WB 0Z EURO for 12th.

I love his south the best stuff is as psu said…it will likely trend northwest

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You kind of make stuff up sometimes. 

You did the same thing earlier in the year saying that in the ENSO thread there were people hoping for X for Y Winter. Never happened. I can also assume you are pointing the new users/guests to my post, since there is no one that has really posted analysis? 

I wasn’t talking about you. lol. You’re not a new poster.  That comment had nothing to do with you. 
 

[Weather Will]

What is so encouraging to me is the amount of cold air available....WB 0Z EURO. At Day 15. .Need cold air for snow....

[jayyy]

I love his south the best stuff is as psu said…it will likely trend northwest

Obviously amounts are 100% irrelevant at range, but it’s nice to see major snow chances being depicted well to our south instead of models having us JUST north of the boundary. Gives us much more wiggle room.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's see if ensembles trend toward a better 500mb- that seems to be the trend. Would be a big score for the EPS if -EPO holds over -PNA.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What is so encouraging to me is the amount of cold air available....WB 0Z EURO. At Day 15. .Need cold air for snow....

Yeah.. that looks nice. Hopefully they aren't underdoing the SE ridge. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Let's see if ensembles trend toward a better 500mb- that seems to be the trend. Would be a big score for the EPS if -EPO holds over -PNA.

You will be surprised if the EPS verifies better than the GEFS? 

[DarkSharkWX]

cool

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You will be surprised if the EPS verifies better than the GEFS? 

A little bit because it had the full -PNA pattern (WC trough, EC ridge) for several consecutive runs and +300dm in the mean.. If we never see a -PNA from this, it's major kudos to the EPS because yeah I didn't think it would occur like that

[Weather Will]

Atlantic basin is not boiling like I remember last  year....so hopefully SER does not overwhelm us...