Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: The CMC says enjoy the wide spread 70's late next week. Gorgeous Bermuda high as depicted. Shorts and tee shirt weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 That GFS was sort of close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: That GFS was sort of close That was a pretty active run. A couple close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: That was a pretty active run. A couple close calls. Euro with a major snowstorm Feb 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gorgeous Bermuda high as depicted. Shorts and tee shirt weather. I protest at the use of the word "gorgeous" to describe a Bermuda High in winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gorgeous Bermuda high as depicted. Shorts and tee shirt weather. Shorts and umbrella drinks, pickleball then a major snow storm. Sign me up. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro with a major snowstorm Feb 10 GFS was trying there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I protest at the use of the word "gorgeous" to describe a Bermuda High in winter. I don't care for it much in Summer either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GFS was trying there too. Will take that and call it a winter until March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS was trying there too. Wait...12z? I don't see anything on the Euro or GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Wait...12z? I don't see anything on the Euro or GFS 318 to 342 on 12Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait...12z? I don't see anything on the Euro or GFS 6z and 12z GFS both have a wave around the 10th with some frozen. Weakish though. 12z Euro- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12z GEFS really went wild with the -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the medium-long range. 5700dm heights for Feb 10th on the mean, so if the Euro is showing snow it's an outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 WB keeps getting suckier. Precip maps come out way ahead of 500 mb or p-type. Still sitting at hour 156 at h5 on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 12z GEFS really went wild with the -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the medium-long range. 5700dm heights for Feb 10th on the mean, so if the Euro is showing snow it's an outlier. EPS hasn't looked that way. One might be more correct than the other. Wonder which one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I can tell we're staring down a - pna. Chucks back. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12z GEFS really went wild with the -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the medium-long range. 5700dm heights for Feb 10th on the mean, so if the Euro is showing snow it's an outlier. There’s chuck, knew we’d see you with the -PNA showing up. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: EPS hasn't looked that way. One might be more correct than the other. Wonder which one? EPS has probably been better in that range this Winter. It's the first run where the GFS ensembles have such a strong signal, so I'd like to see it sustain for a few more runs, but verbatim that's at least 60s, maybe 70s, because it's happening with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: EPS has probably been better in that range this Winter. It's the first run where the GFS ensembles have such a strong signal, so I'd like to see it sustain for a few more runs, but verbatim that's at least 60s, maybe 70s, because it's happening with a +NAO/AO. 15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 12z GEFS really went wild with the -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the medium-long range. 5700dm heights for Feb 10th on the mean, so if the Euro is showing snow it's an outlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Well it would take a massive shift in the GEFS H5 for snow to occur, 1/50 type stuff. Maybe it's somewhere between the 2 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Might not be your winter Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Well it would take a massive shift in the GEFS H5 for snow to occur, 1/50 type stuff. Maybe it's somewhere between the 2 models. At 12 days out, there is a pretty decent chance the outcome on the 12z Euro isn't correct. I just don't think that has much to do with the 12z GEFS going apeshit with the -PNA or SER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Might not be your winter Chuck Pattern's probably underestimated right now for how warm it can get here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: At 12 days out, there is a pretty decent chance the outcome on the 12z Euro isn't correct. I just don't think that has much to do with the 12z GEFS going apeshit with the -PNA or SER. I just think it's a really strong signal on the mean for being so far out. I think the mean is approaching +300dm south of the Aleutian islands. It's been going back and forth a lot this Winter, I've seen -PNA patterns dissolve and move into -EPO domain in future time this Winter. If the EPS isn't aligned that's a little cause for less confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12z AI pushes the 6th south some and not as heavy precip. Better for central MD & VA and N VA while surface temps look to cooperate. Moderate event at least in N VA and S and Central MD I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 What’s latest on this SAT night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 6z and 12z GFS both have a wave around the 10th with some frozen. Weakish though. 12z Euro- Ah. I see. SFC sucks...but I mean...300 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: EPS hasn't looked that way. One might be more correct than the other. Wonder which one? EPS back towards the +TNH pattern after the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Geps is uglier at the end of its run than Gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Geps is uglier at the end of its run than Gefs. It probably changes tonight but the eps went towards the gefs after the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts