Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 At work so just seeing the euro. It sped up the southern stream just a touch and you see the result. Man synoptically it won’t take much either way for this to be a GFS or blizzard version. Brutal event to track for me for how this winter has gone.Increased spread on 18z eps has me shitting bricks. I really hope the Ai comes back to at least giving us something FFS Of course here in Philly that was like a 30”+ run we were still in the ccb at 144 hours @Ji hold me 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Take this FWIW but I just looks at every eps member and the breakdown of NW v DC area Jack v weak/SE members is almost exactly the same 12z to 18z. The difference is the weak SE misses went from close misses with a ton of snow just to our east to in many cases no stole at all with like 2-4” as the max anywhere. The weak camp got really weak. The already east camp went way east. The jack camp also lost some of its crazy 20-30” members. They are more commonly 8-15” type storms. Btw when judging the eps remember it’s a cold storm and they are low resolution using 10-1 and cut off the end of the storm. So a .7 qpf run is probably a 10” snowstorm. Comparing eps members to the op is difficult in that way. What to make of this? I dunno. It’s good the track among the majority camp didn’t shift much. But it’s not good the weaker solutions didn’t converge at all and went the other way. Spread increased some. Euro members couldn’t even agree on the 2/19 storm even like 2 days out so not that surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Boy, look at that 5H on the 18z vs 12z. Wow. But it did speed up the SLP. If it gets too far E before the N stream catches up it’ll be a GFS like scenario. I need a dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dawg. Come on now. Senior citizen early bird special type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This forum will meltdown if the euro caves to the gfs after it showing a HECS for more than 1 run in row 5 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: At work so just seeing the euro. It sped up the southern stream just a touch and you see the result. Man synoptically it won’t take much either way for this to be a GFS or blizzard version. Brutal event to track for me for how this winter has gone. Increased spread on 18z eps has me shitting bricks. I really hope the Ai comes back to at least giving us something FFS Of course here in Philly that was like a 30”+ run we were still in the ccb at 144 hours@Ji hold me Gotta set your expectations based on Nina climo and seasonal trends. With that said, you and I need to keep our expectations low....very low. I am serious when I say that. This is a Mid Atlantic winter and this one is eyeing them up once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: But it did speed up the SLP. If it gets too far E before the N stream catches up it’ll be a GFS like scenario. I need a dog . Therapy dog? Lol It will be alright. You can road trip to Millville probably and get it on another snowstorm for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gotta set your expectations based on Nina climo and seasonal trends. With that said, you and I need to keep our expectations low....very low. I am serious when I say that. This is a Mid Atlantic winter and this one is eyeing them up once again. Yeah I’m not getting too excited yet. I want this at 120 hours for the EPS to look good. We’d have to survive until like 18z tomorrow. 24 hours to go. If it’s under 120 and euro and eps look good I’ll get excited . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Ji said: its not a good run--it was a bit east. I think we lost 7 inches NE MD PUMMELED! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If this thing can give me and Bob Chill 6” you guys can have whatever you want. It has been FOREVER since we’ve had a straight up snow event, without any fear of mixing etc.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Twilly05 said: NE MD PUMMELED! This is 6 days out, but I'd take another sixteen inches of snow in Dale City FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: At work so just seeing the euro. It sped up the southern stream just a touch and you see the result. Man synoptically it won’t take much either way for this to be a GFS or blizzard version. Brutal event to track for me for how this winter has gone. Increased spread on 18z eps has me shitting bricks. I really hope the Ai comes back to at least giving us something FFS Of course here in Philly that was like a 30”+ run we were still in the ccb at 144 hours@Ji hold me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Jebman said: This is 6 days out, but I'd take another sixteen inches of snow in Dale City FTW! Your level of dedication to this hobby is inspirational. You've lived in Texas for a while now yet you still consistently pop in here before snowstorms to hype everyone up and root for your old hometown to score. That's next level shit lol! If there was a hall of fame for this board you'd be first ballot. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Im sticking with the “go with whatever model gives us the least amount of snow” approach. Less disappointing. So im on the gfs currently!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Our is at 9pm. The Palm baby! The Palm! Nice. Wife and I had a beautiful candlelit dinner in Cava this evening. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That’s the one negative with great runs. There is no where to go but down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: The Palm! Nice. Wife and I had a beautiful candlelit dinner in Cava this evening. Meanwhile I'm sitting at Texas Roadhouse refreshing this thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Ok a few points rattling through my brain 1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run. It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner. It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels. But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here. Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm. 2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS. There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution. It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations. A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members. And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too. All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite. 3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%. Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl. We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years. We don't live in Vermont. A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter. 1. 1 more than none. in 75 years. So get that out of your heads. If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did. Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina. But that's way better odds than 1. 8x the odds lol. So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine. That's still a super rare outcome! When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS. I was picturing a 8-12" type storm. It's a brutal hobby though, I feel let down over the 20.8" to 18" drop like i was over Mahomes garbage 8 points over the backups. Going to be watching 0z with one eye closed and teeth clenched. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Ha...it was mostly because i procrastinated on making reservations and that was the only time open but i'm not going to lie...I'm not mad about being home and comfy right now. Fair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: Don’t any of yall have girlfriends or wives to take to dinner? Bunch of weenies in here tonight. The NAVGEM isn’t on board so I’m out Got the wife flowers, took her to dinner, and we're playing farming simulator now together while I sneak in some model watching. Weather is serious business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 UK Ensembles a bit better vs. 12Z FWIW 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: UK Ensembles a bit better vs. 12Z FWIW Just going to post. But here's the 24hr comparing 12z and 18z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 AI at 18Z is way out to sea. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Ai at 18Z is way out to sea. A I and gfs I n their own little world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: AI at 18Z is way out to sea. Pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Our is at 9pm. The Palm baby! May seem a bit weird but I remember eating at the Palm in the late 1950s. Grandpa, who lived just off Foxhall Road in NW D.C., took us to dinner there once. What I most remember was discovering the "baseball cut" of sirloin. My god was it good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Ai at 18Z is way out to sea. You weren't supposed to post it. Lol But since you did, I am starting to think the reason they're launching a new version on 2/25 is because there's a problem. The 18z run gave us essentially no precip after this weekend. Everything was off the coast. Something wrong with that imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: You weren't supposed to post it. Lol But since you did, I am starting to think the reason they're launching a new version on 2/25 is because there's a problem. The 18z run gave us essentially no precip. Everything was off the coast. Something wrong with that imho. If that is true, they should take it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 18Z AI fish storm.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 199 pages... whew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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