winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 42 minutes ago, Ji said: its not a good run--it was a bit east. I think we lost 7 inches Only shows 19 inches at my house. Throw it out! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, yoda said: After Tuesday night disaster at work (I work at Amazon and we had to stay open because DCA1 said we're sending you 5k of packages in two trailers) - and trying to get to work was a disaster in itself - I've already flagged next week with our management/operations team. Plus our bozo day shift said hey we're going to leave all your carts outside... so they are covered in snow and ice and not bring them in because... we didn't feel like it. And there's over 250 of them. It was not a fun 4 hours the next night. Hey, I work at DCA1! Sounds like a nightmare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Don’t any of yall have girlfriends or wives to take to dinner? Bunch of weenies in here tonight. The NAVGEM isn’t on board so I’m out I sent my wife flowers and. Took her out to dinner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok a few points rattling through my brain 1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run. It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner. It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels. But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here. Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm. 2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS. There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution. It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations. A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members. And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too. All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite. 3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%. Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl. We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years. We don't live in Vermont. A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter. 1. 1 more than none. in 75 years. So get that out of your heads. If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did. Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina. But that's way better odds than 1. 8x the odds lol. So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine. That's still a super rare outcome! When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS. I was picturing a 8-12" type storm. Great post, thanks for the info! All I want is what Pensacola, FL got -- 10" of snow falling during the day with temps in the 20s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Don’t any of yall have girlfriends or wives to take to dinner? Bunch of weenies in here tonight. The NAVGEM isn’t on board so I’m out Says the guy with the wife lol hi friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Steve25 said: Hey, I work at DCA1! Sounds like a nightmare You send us (I'm at SDC1/VDC1) all of our injection lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And that's gunna be pure fluff with 20:1 ratios I bet. Looking at h7rh it’s still snowing from a Leesburg to DC northeast line and it’s not making much progress due to the inverted trough between the surface low and the upper low, it’s wrapping around. Probably can tack on another 1-3” across MD. Maybe more for us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Eps cut back on 24hr snowfall, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: Eps cut back on 24hr snowfall, but not much. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Says the guy with the wife lol hi friend! We are like 70. Had reservations for 5pm. Home and done dinner before 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Looks like less amped members, not necessarily a change in track. This is fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Looks like less amped members, not necessarily a change in track. This is fine 6 hr precip 144 vs 150 from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: We are like 70. Had reservations for 5pm. Home and done dinner before 7 Our is at 9pm. The Palm baby! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We are like 70. Had reservations for 5pm. Home and done dinner before 7 My wife and I had dinner at 4:30 it was awesome to beat the rush. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: Less wide rights on the 18z though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6 hr precip 144 vs 150 from 12z Still stand by what i said. Not necessarily a change in track. Just less amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Terpeast said: Still stand by what i said. Not necessarily a change in track. Just less amped Slp mean a touch east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Still stand by what i said. Not necessarily a change in track. Just less amped We just need to not have our seasonal big time de amp trend continue. Love the tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok a few points rattling through my brain 1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run. It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner. It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels. But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here. Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm. By DC/BALT "HECS" what parameters are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Boy, look at that 5H on the 18z vs 12z. Wow. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Silver Meteor said: By DC/BALT "HECS" what parameters are you using? HECS is 18”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: My wife and I had dinner at 4:30 it was awesome to beat the rush. Dawg. Come on now. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Boy, look at that 5H on the 18z vs 12z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: Dawg. Come on now. Ha...it was mostly because i procrastinated on making reservations and that was the only time open but i'm not going to lie...I'm not mad about being home and comfy right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 when do you all predict the gfs will cave and show a Mecs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, notvirga! said: when do you all predict the gfs will cave and show a Mecs? Next friday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Take this FWIW but I just looks at every eps member and the breakdown of NW v DC area Jack v weak/SE members is almost exactly the same 12z to 18z. The difference is the weak SE misses went from close misses with a ton of snow just to our east to in many cases no stole at all with like 2-4” as the max anywhere. The weak camp got really weak. The already east camp went way east. The jack camp also lost some of its crazy 20-30” members. They are more commonly 8-15” type storms. Btw when judging the eps remember it’s a cold storm and they are low resolution using 10-1 and cut off the end of the storm. So a .7 qpf run is probably a 10” snowstorm. Comparing eps members to the op is difficult in that way. What to make of this? I dunno. It’s good the track among the majority camp didn’t shift much. But it’s not good the weaker solutions didn’t converge at all and went the other way. Spread increased some. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You are all lazy. I made dinner for my wife so I could be closer to the computer. Lol. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: By DC/BALT "HECS" what parameters are you using? Widespread 18”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now