Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Ji said: its not a good run--it was a bit east. I think we lost 7 inches 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ji said: Relax it’s still snowing So I might get 30. Who else wants to shit on my porch? 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Ok let’s be honest with ourselves barring the greatest pivot of all time there is maybe 1” of snow left in that run for anyone outside of our easterly members You don't know how long it lingers and if any of the eastern stuff rotates westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL that’s noise. There’s almost 30 inches just east of the metros. Yeah. And he is obviously trolling us. Most of us north of 70 would be thrilled with half of what that run is showing. I recall PSU saying that since this is a Nina, even with that setup it will take lots of luck to get 12”+ and 6-12 would still be a big success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And that's gunna be pure fluff with 20:1 ratios I bet. There's still a pivot left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Eastern areas are really in a sweet spot. Nina climo ftmfw. My parents are retired in Cape May. I told them years ago ninas generally favor them vs my area. So when I told them in Oct we may be going into a weak Nina they were look "shit, that means snow down here this winter". Hasnt disappointed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, aldie 22 said: There's still a pivot left See above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah that’s like an 18 inch blizzard in the metros with a foot plus across the whole region. I need @Solution Man sign here please image!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You don't know how long it lingers and if any of the eastern stuff rotates westward. Just now, aldie 22 said: There's still a pivot left Eh - maybe. I think it already pivoted. Unless it does something different then the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bad run but oh yeah BTW it's still blizzard-ing Dendrite bomb CCB ongoing with 12-20”+ on the ground. Terrible run 4 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Eh - maybe. I think it already pivoted. Unless it does something different then the 12z isn't that low still pretty south for the pivot to already have passed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah that’s like an 18 inch blizzard in the metros with a foot plus across the whole region. I need @Solution Man sign here please image!! I don't give a fuck who jackpots. Congrats. Just let me get in on a couple inches up this way. Not asking much, I'm not picky. Just about my beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The good news is in another run or two, we will no longer have to worry about extrapolating the Euro at 6z and 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, WxUSAF said: Dendrite bomb CCB ongoing with 12-20”+ on the ground. Terrible run This new generation of weenies are a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: isn't that low still pretty south for the pivot to already have passed? Once Pivotal finally loads, I'll put it in motion and that will answer the question. Stay tuned. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m out 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Of nachos damnit 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: Of nachos damnit Ate them all during the Super Bowl??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: So I might get 30. Who else wants to shit on my porch? It may have to be done after all! Good news is if you get 30 I might get 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Temps drop at the beginning of the storm from the low 20's to upper teens. Wow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Since this is a cold storm, my acceptance snow amount for this will be actually 11 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, Jandurin said: it's too early for me to care about the gfs but yeah if the euro loses the storm then it's probably not coming back You must be new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Putting in motion,,there is a pivot occurring so we definitely have a few hours of snow left. That said, DE and NJ are going to get between 2-3'. Incredible. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't give a fuck who jackpots. Congrats. Just let me get in on a couple inches up this way. Not asking much, I'm not picky. Just about my beer. The fact that one is showing up is telling imho. That’s a signature of every big storm in the mid range. You start seeing this high total bullseyes right at the pivot point for the storm. I am just glad we are seeing one. btw did you see the surface temps are at around 20 for these ccb panels. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dendrite bomb CCB ongoing with 12-20”+ on the ground. Terrible run I’m out. Awful run. This place sucks. Thanks everyone for nothing. ETA: secretly cracks 53th beer today with the weird monkey sideways eyes meme looking straight at me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: The fact that one is showing up is telling imho. That’s a signature of every big storm in the mid range. You start seeing this high total bullseyes right at the pivot point for the storm. I am just glad we are seeing one. btw did you see the surface temps are at around 20 for these ccb panels. Could have legit blizzard criteria in spots. Sustained winds would be the final ingredient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 After Tuesday night disaster at work (I work at Amazon and we had to stay open because DCA1 said we're sending you 5k of packages in two trailers) - and trying to get to work was a disaster in itself - I've already flagged next week with our management/operations team. Plus our bozo day shift said hey we're going to leave all your carts outside... so they are covered in snow and ice and not bring them in because... we didn't feel like it. And there's over 250 of them. It was not a fun 4 hours the next night. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ok a few points rattling through my brain 1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run. It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner. It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels. But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here. Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm. 2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS. There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution. It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations. A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members. And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too. All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite. 3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%. Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl. We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years. We don't live in Vermont. A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter. 1. 1 more than none. in 75 years. So get that out of your heads. If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did. Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina. But that's way better odds than 1. 8x the odds lol. So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine. That's still a super rare outcome! When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS. I was picturing a 8-12" type storm. 29 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Don’t any of yall have girlfriends or wives to take to dinner? Bunch of weenies in here tonight. The NAVGEM isn’t on board so I’m out 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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