Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow. Absolutely. There is definitely cause for caution (though NOT freaking out at every damned model cycle!), which I think nearly everyone here has. I seriously doubt the Euro shows the amazing solution we saw at 12Z, that is probably an upper end or nearly so. At the same time, I don't think a slight "decrease" in snow amounts would mean "OMG, panic, the Euro is going the way of the GFS!!". Key for me at least is to see the same overall evolution, and hope the GFS/GEFS at some point soon starts indicating the same. If you look at the range of reasonable solutions, I have to think we're looking at a solid, decent SECS to MECS event, and perhaps more if things phase just right. No, we may not get 20" but I would still love to see a widespread 6-10" or 8-12" of cold freakin' powder that would stick around for a few days at least, given how cold the temperatures look! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: If it was measured at the top of the DC's Mighty Mount Hamilton then that could have pushed the totals up. I live downslope from that beast so my snow totals are always diminished https://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=27611 WOW on that map (that can be used anywhere.) Looking at other places it seems that map is old - which is also cool. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 at noon we were so happy now after an 18z GFS run we're pissing our pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m gonna pull a Ji for reverse psychology’s sake. we always find a way to fail here. It’s the winter of the S/E folks like cape and the DE gang. Can’t seem to get these amped phase jobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow. The real problem is not the GFS, we all know usually when it’s on an island it stays there a while then gradually goes towards the others. The problem is that the Euro spit out pretty much the top shelf solution. Hard to go up from 12z, so people will be panicking over a “step back” if it shows a clean 10-15 inch storm for us. Of course it’s possible the Euro keeps some version of that solution for 21 straight runs but it isn’t likely. We have to be ready for the almost inevitable wobbling and not get totally on tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, bncho said: at noon we were so happy now after an 18z GFS run we're pissing our pants Yeah... An improved 18 z GFS on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A Euro UK Ggem trifecta is a hill I’m willing to die on. If we have to be missing one of the 4 major global the GFS is the one I’m least upset about. I can’t remember the last time it was off on its own like this and won. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: The real problem is not the GFS, we all know usually when it’s on an island it stays there a while then gradually goes towards the others. The problem is that the Euro spit out pretty much the top shelf solution. Hard to go up from 12z, so people will be panicking over a “step back” if it shows a clean 10-15 inch storm for us. Of course it’s possible the Euro keeps some version of that solution for 21 straight runs but it isn’t likely. We have to be ready for the almost inevitable wobbling and not get totally on tilt. Yeah...SOME people will flip out if we don't keep seeing 20"+ every single run. Would I love to see that, like we saw for the 2016 blizzard? Hell yes! But I don't expect that to keep showing up. As I said before, a solid cold-powder moderate or better event would still be amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 @mitchnick did we ever get a UK ensembles update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 @Terpeastany good analogs showing up today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Absolutely. There is definitely cause for caution (though NOT freaking out at every damned model cycle!), which I think nearly everyone here has. I seriously doubt the Euro shows the amazing solution we saw at 12Z, that is probably an upper end or nearly so. At the same time, I don't think a slight "decrease" in snow amounts would mean "OMG, panic, the Euro is going the way of the GFS!!". Key for me at least is to see the same overall evolution, and hope the GFS/GEFS at some point soon starts indicating the same. If you look at the range of reasonable solutions, I have to think we're looking at a solid, decent SECS to MECS event, and perhaps more if things phase just right. No, we may not get 20" but I would still love to see a widespread 6-10" or 8-12" of cold freakin' powder that would stick around for a few days at least, given how cold the temperatures look! ^^^this right here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Absolutely. There is definitely cause for caution (though NOT freaking out at every damned model cycle!), which I think nearly everyone here has. I seriously doubt the Euro shows the amazing solution we saw at 12Z, that is probably an upper end or nearly so. At the same time, I don't think a slight "decrease" in snow amounts would mean "OMG, panic, the Euro is going the way of the GFS!!". Key for me at least is to see the same overall evolution, and hope the GFS/GEFS at some point soon starts indicating the same. If you look at the range of reasonable solutions, I have to think we're looking at a solid, decent SECS to MECS event, and perhaps more if things phase just right. No, we may not get 20" but I would still love to see a widespread 6-10" or 8-12" of cold freakin' powder that would stick around for a few days at least, given how cold the temperatures look! That's cool I got upset the NAVGEM was OTS earlier today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, EHoffman said: That's cool I got upset the NAVGEM was OTS earlier today It's the NAVY model...of course it's, uhhhh, at sea! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I mean the fact that the GFS gave us (well most of us) snow makes it a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18z GEFS. not exactly terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A Euro UK Ggem trifecta is a hill I’m willing to die on. If we have to be missing one of the 4 major global the GFS is the one I’m least upset about. I can’t remember the last time it was off on its own like this and won. @Ji the one time ever in history that the gfs pulls off a coup would be now right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think many people forget that the 06Z GFS last Saturday was dumping 40"+ over the area for this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MDScienceTeacher said: @Ji the one time ever in history that the gfs pulls off a coup would be now right? Toii me the GFS looked a little disjointed compared to EURO,UKMET AND GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 To be fair no model usually wins when it’s totally on its own. But the euro does sometimes. It just did yesterday. For one day it was totally by itself saying “nope” to any front end snow with the wave yesterday while the gfs/ggem/NAM all had 1-3” up here. Euro won. They all caved. But that’s kinda rare and I can’t remember any cases like that when the ggem or gfs were completely alone and won. Famoulsly it was showing a HECS for days around hours 100-150 in Feb 2021 but was all by itself. And some even said “it has to mean something that it’s so consistent”. Yea it was consistently wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I hope you're joking, because you know what comes next, right? I have been lurking since Boxing Day.. and I know that there is something to it.. like whenever it finally snows is inevitably when someone is leaving town. Anyway I don’t leave til night time. As long as I get to watch it fall I am good! And if I get a delay because of a foot or more of snow so be it!! It’s a win win for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Toii me the GFS looked a little disjointed compared to EURO,UKMET AND GEM Yeah it looks like all systems go but I just want to give @Jisomething to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 I don't have the Euro snow maps . So north will have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS kinda telling someone not to be too confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 18z GEFS. not exactly terrible It's pretty bad to be honest. Looks at all the low placements. Not many would get us into any qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Question to those who may know. Years ago the GFS suddenly popped a crazy storm at like 120 hours that no other model had. NCEP said it ingested some faulty data that caused it and they disregarded it. The next run backed of a little but still had the storm and some were arguing it wasn’t the bad day then, but someone familiar with the NWP said it would take the GFS several runs to flush the effects completely since it has some continuity between runs. I think it had to do with using some data for initialization from the previous run. Is this still true? If the GFS was off on a tangent due to some miscalculation can it take multiple runs to correct itself due to continuity between runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 i think somehow 18z euro might be better but its early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 From what I can see yall....stand by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick did we ever get a UK ensembles update? I was hoping you had forgotten. It was a step or 2 back from prior 2 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Has anyone had a chance to extrapolate the 18z nam? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 euro seems to be showing alot of snow...may not be 12z though but the low appears stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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