peribonca Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: An Improvement from 12 z Down in the Northern Neck my goal posts are between 10 inches (GFS) and 24 inches (Euro). Wow! That'll get me above 30 inches on the year easily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS is a booty cheeks model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's cold in the wake of this system regardless where it ends up. That much we know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS took a step in right direction, even as is its not horrible. If it was a little deeper with the trough and slower with SLP development it would have been great. It’s the gfs though it’s wrong, it’s always wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Philly to Boston sees little more than flurries and a period of light snow showers....a true Mid Atlantic special. Meanwhile, the Euro is a KU from DC to Boston. Gentlemen, choose your side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Delete this 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 4 inches. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Something to ponder…when has the GFS ever been completely on its own and it ended up verifying? I can’t think of any times when that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Wish the Ukie ran past 66 at 18z. Some changes from 12z with the position of the PV at 66. No idea what it would mean further in the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 4 inches. I'll take it! Shades of 1996 with this model showing this while Euro just moves on northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Let’s see if I get the 2” tomorrow the GFS has for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually more spacing between the trop PV and the southern shortwave on 18z vs 12z. So the storm is entirely southern forced. That actually makes it a bit stronger than 12z (no interference from the northern stream), but WAY far from a phase like the Euro/GGEM/Ukie. I find it a little hard to believe a system amplified enough to put down 12-18” in Missouri is going to wash out that much given how much space there is between the detached TPV lobe and the departing vortex. The flow doesn’t look that suppressive. Thinking back to a similar wave in Jan 2021 that got squashed that way, the flow was a shred factory then compared to this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Delete this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think the GFS just needs a little more time. Let's give it till tomorrow 12zIts SE / progressive bias is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Thanks so much. We were all quite lost without you chiming in. Somewhere between 0 and 20 inches. Enlightening. Idk how he does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If this is how it happens... I am going to need to punch someone in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Did the gefs come out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Tpv splits at 120hrs then reorganized as one again at 123hrs wtf I'm just trying to learn. Did it really split? I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Did the gefs come out yet It’s no bueno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s no bueno Good thing it just follows the op mostly so who cares. 18z euro will be a big run here to see what’s up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I find it a little hard to believe a system amplified enough to put down 12-18” in Missouri is going to wash out that much given how much space there is between the detached TPV lobe and the departing vortex. The flow doesn’t look that suppressive. Thinking back to a similar wave in Jan 2021 that got squashed that way, the flow was a shred factory then compared to this. Ai really has me shitting bricks lol. I wonder if it’s resolution hurting its ability with an event like this, but maybe that’s just weenie talk idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Everything is right where we want it down here. Sorry Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Ai really has me shitting bricks lol. I wonder if it’s resolution hurting its ability with an event like this, but maybe that’s just weenie talk idk . As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: If this is how it happens... I am going to need to punch someone in the face. Oh I would take a dump on @CAPE porch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow. The gfs is only right when its own it’s own showing shit for us, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Did the gefs come out yet Actually worse than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This forum would make for a fascinating case study in human emotion. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We’re at 193 pages. Hello. New thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow. it's too early for me to care about the gfs but yeah if the euro loses the storm then it's probably not coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Ai really has me shitting bricks lol. I wonder if it’s resolution hurting its ability with an event like this, but maybe that’s just weenie talk idk . I’m not sure how resolution affects a non physics based model. But it’s been jumpy. And it’s tended to be under amplified. We leaned on it a few times this year and it let us down. It was under amplified some this week with the New England storm also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now