ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Is the date firm? I’m trying to firm up the date as we speak. Ill keep you abreast of the situation. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Stop it! lol 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It is so bright and sunny today, and here we are looking at a possible low end KU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Scraff SBI was reading high so ran out to stock the fridge. If all else fails, the cellar is loaded with stouts and imperial stouts. And if the storm falls apart, well, I won't remember it anyway OUTSTANDING selection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Fozz said: It is so bright and sunny, and here we are looking at a possible low end KU? Yeah..next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mappy said: Yeah..next week. Just saw the Euro… this really is looking legit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I am pretty sure that @Scraff beer selection is worth more than my house. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Fozz said: Just saw the Euro… this really is looking legit now. PSU is all aboard so that has to count for something 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, mappy said: PSU is all aboard so that has to count for something He has been really good with identifying legit windows and threats. I take him more seriously than anyone really. Ever since the PSU storm in 2011 lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Pretty nice trend on the EPS over the past 36 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: He has been really good with identifying legit windows and threats. I take him more seriously than anyone really. Ever since the PSU storm in 2011 lol. @psuhoffmanhas been locked in on the date for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 While we wait to extrapolate the 18z 12k NAM, I'm pleased to inform you that the ACCESS-G model is on board for 8"+ regionwide. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Next week's system has become increasingly ominous and holds potential for significant to major impacts from DC - NYC and even BOS. There are a few features that make this such a favorable setup, mirroring past major and even historic storms: The most important feature of this setup is the retrograding and decaying west-based -NAO that migrates into central Canada. This is perhaps the most important feature for major EC snowstorms, and it is a huge factor here, as it slows the pattern down and locks in confluence. It also leads to the "banana" HP that often develops in these setups due to NVA downstream of the block. This is a lobe of the polar vortex (PV) that is the impetus for the storm threat. This lobe becomes trapped under the block and will be forced to pivot under it, leading to a potential phase with the southern stream vort (x) over TX/OK. This kind of slow-moving, amplified ULL is also a main feature of major storm threats. As is common in these setups, a disturbance, either coastal or otherwise, amplifies into the northern Atlantic and becomes trapped by the block, leading to a 50/50 ULL that departs. This is crucial for establishing confluence, which keeps heights in check downstream of the amplifying trough. Note how heights are zonal over ME and Atlantic Canada. Last but not least, there is a transient spike in heights over the Pacific NW that links up with the blocking. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle... if that disturbance offshore destructively interferes with the blossoming +PNA, you get a weaker solution. However, the trend has been for constructive interference, which helps lead to downstream amplification. It's also worth noting that this setup very closely mirrors past setups that delivered historic snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Yes, it's for NYC, but you guys generally want the same pattern, and there is a lot of overlap between HECS for NYC and BWI/DC. Notice the 500mb composite that has all four main features... the retrograding and decaying block, the amplifying trough over the MS River Valley, departing confluence, and a brief PNA spike as the storm is getting its act together. Suffice it to say, this is probably the best synoptic setup that we have seen enter the medium range since February 2021 (I'd run that one back down there if I were you guys) and it does hold the potential to be just as impactful. The GFS not being on board is pretty common in these setups. However, we will want to see this amplification signal enter the 96 hour window, so if we see this signal last into Monday, talks about a legitimate major snowstorm will hold more weight. Right now, it's worth being cautious, but the pattern has been screaming this kind of outcome for a week now, and it is bolstered by past outcomes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, mappy said: PSU is all aboard so that has to count for something On board? This is his storm. He started telling us about it about 6 weeks ago. Unbelievable, and if it happens will definitely trip me out lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z EPS would argue for a regionwide 8" - 12" event. Would give many of us the first above average seasonal snowfall in years. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: He has been really good with identifying legit windows and threats. I take him more seriously than anyone really. Ever since the PSU storm in 2011 lol. Might have to name this one "Hoffman II" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, bncho said: See, the HECS snowfall measurements are different for DCA. HECS for most: 18+" HECS for DCA: 12-17.8" Knickerbocker storm was 28". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: On board? This is his storm. He started telling us about it about 6 weeks ago. Unbelievable, and if it happens will definitely trip me out lol PSU actually took a DeLorean to 88MPH and ended up in the future next week. He's come back to tell us about it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I'll be in DC / Clarksburg for the week. Oiling up my snow shovel and making ridiculously tall snow piles that'll last until June. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am pretty sure that @Scraff beer selection is worth more than my house. It’s probably only 500+ beers in the basement. Your house worth how much? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Miss Pixee said: Knickerbocker storm was 28". That's a BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Miss Pixee said: Knickerbocker storm was 28". That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river. lol They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: PSU actually took a DeLorean to 88MPH and ended up in the future next week. He's come back to tell us about it... It was a good trip, but unlike Bif, all I came back with was a damn weather almanac 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: It was a good trip, but unlike Bif, all I came back with was a damn weather almanac I hope today's Euro ended up verifying!! LOL!!! PSU Hoffman: "Heavy snow will begin about...NOW!" Awed Weenies: "Whoooa, how did he know that?!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Scraff SBI was reading high so ran out to stock the fridge. If all else fails, the cellar is loaded with stouts and imperial stouts. And if the storm falls apart, well, I won't remember it anyway Fiddlehead, eh? My recent favorite. The brewery is 3 miles from my house here in VT. I know where I am stopping on the way home tonight! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, dailylurker said: On board? This is his storm. He started telling us about it about 6 weeks ago. Unbelievable, and if it happens will definitely trip me out lol Yeah no kidding… many of us north of 70 hardly remember what a 6”+ storm (let alone double digits) even looks like or feels like to experience, or what it’s like to get many straight hours of +SN (ski trips notwithstanding) I’m still a little cautious since it’s 5 days out and the GFS is a little doubtful, but seeing the upper level setup, plus PSU and possibly Millville going all in, makes me think this could be the big one we’ve all been waiting for years to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river. lol They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA. I think I read somewhere, can't recall exactly, but the location that would have been DCA measured around 20-21 inches in the knickerbocker storm. On the other side of DC, Rock Creek Park measured 33" 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 You know it’s a legit opportunity when red usernames you’ve hardly ever or even never seen before come around! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I think I read somewhere, can't recall exactly, but the location that would have been DCA measured around 20-21 inches in the knickerbocker storm. Sounds about right...and probably a reasonable "max" potential for that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Terpeast said: I think I read somewhere, can't recall exactly, but the location that would have been DCA measured around 20-21 inches in the knickerbocker storm. I thought it was 17.8". Seems that specific location cannot measure more than that even if a short distance away gets well over 20"!!! (OK, I think DCA did record around 19" for the PD-I storm but all the other big ones since, seem to have been stuck at literally 17.8!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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