psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys! Been busy...I miss anything? @Ji would like to talk about Dec 2000, March 01 and Boxing Day 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, DarthHokie said: Jay rips off the mets here to post on this page. You all are making him advertising money. The Housewives of Ashburn love him tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: Just deciding whether we get a SECS, a MECS, a HECS, or a BECS next week. And what the definition of those are. PSU is in. Stormtracker is trying to encourage the masses not to cliff dive if one run here or there isn't perfect. Oh, and Ravensrule told us about his ED. I think that's most of it. Shhhh, my wife doesn't know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I'll be watching the 4 Nations Face-Off final on TV. It's at TD Garden in Boston at 8 pm, just about when the storm is expected to hit that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Me me! Plans to meet my friend Randy in Georgetown for drinks. Should I bring an umbrella? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Shit wrong storm...yay now we've brought up all 3 of our biggest busts of the last 30 years...awesome. But that storm has even less in common IMO. It was purely NS miller b, not hybrid. From 5 days out the models were wrong because they thought the STJ wave would be out in front and phase and there would be a hybrid system. Once they latched onto the idea it would be a NS only miller b it became more iffy but some runs still showed a hit because back then they liked to tease us with miller b's when in reality they almost NEVER develop fast enough, that one Feb 1996 one being the only exception I can ever remember where a pure NS miller b bombed in time to get the DC area into heavy snow. What are the odds this becomes like that? Not much imo. First of all the southern stream is way out ahead of the NS on this one so there is no mechanism to totally squash it. If the NS squashes it...there wouldn't be a storm because there is no strong NS SW to work with here. Also, models are better at day 5 then they were at day 3 back then. We don't see major errors on significant systems like that as often. Anything is "possible" but I don't see many similarities to this setup. Now can we stop bringing up every horrible fail we've had. Not to mention that was 20yrs ago. Did the euro run on a 486DX back then? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Dang CWG just showed the euro run on FB. Seems a bit early to hype up the masses....I thought that was Jay's Wintry Mix's job We aren't in super crazy unicorn range anymore...looking at the performance of the current models since their major upgrades, and I include my tracking of big storms for other places not just here, they don't miss major systems as often as they once did. Actually this is exactly when I would want a storm to pop up, close enough we don't have to stress through weeks of "its probably not gonna hold" territory but at just the right range where I don't start to panic why its not showing yet...if we get inside 140 without a storm showing...it probably isn't happening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, Ji said: looks horrible JMA is pretty far off the coast as well. Eastern New England gets crushed tho, so that's a relief 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA is pretty far off the coast as well. Eastern New England gets crushed tho, so that's a relief The Japanese know as much about weather, as i know about knitting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Scraff SBI was reading high so ran out to stock the fridge. If all else fails, the cellar is loaded with stouts and imperial stouts. And if the storm falls apart, well, I won't remember it anyway I still have stock left from the super bowl party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 49 minutes ago, Heisy said: Interesting, lol there’s always a caveat it’s never easy . It is a really really delicate line we are walking between a full clean phase and capture (all) or very subtle timing differences and late development (nothing). I would keep expectations in check until very late weekend or early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Basketball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, mappy said: The Housewives of Ashburn love him tho Think you also mean Data Centers of NOVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I have piano practice, not good enough for Beethoven yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I actually have a very important appointment with my ED doctor, what do you suggest i do?. That's a hard one... especially if you get stuck out in that kind of cold...things could get stiff 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker what's going on up in here...people talking about boxing day and March 2001? WTF Hoping for the best, bracing for disaster. You know the drill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA is pretty far off the coast as well. Eastern New England gets crushed tho, so that's a relief before people think you're being serious it does drop about .75 qpf across the area, which for the JMA is folks worthy. It actually only has slightly more QPF, about 1" for Boston. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So we lost the NOGAOS, JMA, and AI? It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ECMWF was a thing of beauty in all phases. The crazy thing is.... that's not even the max scenario of it all when you assess how 5H evolves. Pretty insane. GFS I feel is up to its progressive bias of it all. ICON and GFS are usually too fast with these types evolutions and you can tell because they have similar issues. Compared to the rest of the suite, they were near misses to something much greater. Can't hate that 12z suite. The big ones are always a tight rope walk because EVERYTHING has to go right to get a monster result. Block up north helps in these scenarios. Now....we wait. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 LWX seem pretty confident ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: So we lost the NOGAOS, JMA, and AI? It's over Dead-ass, who has the Spire?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Latest from WPC!!.... INTRESTING!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 LATEST DISCUSSION FROM WPC!! The prospects for an impactful winter storm have increased over the past 12-24 hours, with the new WPC winter weather outlook now up to 50-60% for Thursday across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and this also holds true for Friday into southern New England. Both the NBM and the majority of the deterministic guidance has trended higher with QPF across this region as the surface low tracks farther north compared to earlier forecasts. With abundant sub-freezing temperatures in place ahead of this storm system, widespread snow is becoming more likely, with a corridor of mixed precipitation farther to the south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Any storms comparable at H5? Feb 6 2003 showing up on analogs but that shortwave was not even close to as strong as the 12z euro shows. . The most similar evolution in some ways was Jan 96. But that cut off and dug way further south...but initially they are similar in terms of how the NS is situated, where its digging in, and where and how amplified the STJ wave ahead of it is. Then they diverge in that the 96 storm the H5 dove all the way into KY, this one comes across closer to our latitude. That might limit this storms ability to get cranking as far south as 96 did...although we don't really need that since the heavy snow extended really far south in VA in that one. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 WB 18Z NBM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Might be hope yet for the PSUHOFFMAN storm!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z NBM I think gfs. Is dragging those totals down a bit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 41 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I actually have a very important appointment with my ED doctor, what do you suggest i do?. Is the date firm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Popular Post Share Posted February 14 Next week's system has become increasingly ominous and holds potential for significant to major impacts from DC - NYC and even BOS. There are a few features that make this such a favorable setup, mirroring past major and even historic storms: The most important feature of this setup is the retrograding and decaying west-based -NAO that migrates into central Canada. This is perhaps the most important feature for major EC snowstorms, and it is a huge factor here, as it slows the pattern down and locks in confluence. It also leads to the "banana" HP that often develops in these setups due to NVA downstream of the block. This is a lobe of the polar vortex (PV) that is the impetus for the storm threat. This lobe becomes trapped under the block and will be forced to pivot under it, leading to a potential phase with the southern stream vort (x) over TX/OK. This kind of slow-moving, amplified ULL is also a main feature of major storm threats. As is common in these setups, a disturbance, either coastal or otherwise, amplifies into the northern Atlantic and becomes trapped by the block, leading to a 50/50 ULL that departs. This is crucial for establishing confluence, which keeps heights in check downstream of the amplifying trough. Note how heights are zonal over ME and Atlantic Canada. Last but not least, there is a transient spike in heights over the Pacific NW that links up with the blocking. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle... if that disturbance offshore destructively interferes with the blossoming +PNA, you get a weaker solution. However, the trend has been for constructive interference, which helps lead to downstream amplification. It's also worth noting that this setup very closely mirrors past setups that delivered historic snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Yes, it's for NYC, but you guys generally want the same pattern, and there is a lot of overlap between HECS for NYC and BWI/DC. Notice the 500mb composite that has all four main features... the retrograding and decaying block, the amplifying trough over the MS River Valley, departing confluence, and a brief PNA spike as the storm is getting its act together. Suffice it to say, this is probably the best synoptic setup that we have seen enter the medium range since February 2021 (I'd run that one back down there if I were you guys) and it does hold the potential to be just as impactful. The GFS not being on board is pretty common in these setups. However, we will want to see this amplification signal enter the 96 hour window, so if we see this signal last into Monday, talks about a legitimate major snowstorm will hold more weight. Right now, it's worth being cautious, but the pattern has been screaming this kind of outcome for a week now, and it is bolstered by past outcomes. 48 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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