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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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12 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Okay I need to understand some terms here

correct me if I'm wrong

MECS   Major
SECS    Severe
HECS    Historical
BECS    Biblical

what is the 'considered' amount of snowfall for each?

More importantly what the flook is FOLKS? Y'all tossing that aound like everyone knows what it is.

There really was no such thing as BECS.  The guy who made the scale disavowed it.  We still use it tho.

FOLKS is just a thang I drop when I doing pbp if I see the models about to destroy us.

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7 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Okay I need to understand some terms here

correct me if I'm wrong

MECS   Major
SECS    Severe
HECS    Historical
BECS    Biblical

what is the 'considered' amount of snowfall for each?

More importantly what the flook is FOLKS? Y'all tossing that aound like everyone knows what it is.

I don't know what the official amounts for each are but this is what they mean and what I've always thought in my head as the range in the "meat" of such storms 

HECS Historic East Coast Storm 18" plus

MECS Major 8-18"

SECS Significant 4-8"

 

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9 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Okay I need to understand some terms here

correct me if I'm wrong

MECS   Major
SECS    Severe
HECS    Historical
BECS    Biblical

what is the 'considered' amount of snowfall for each?

More importantly what the flook is FOLKS? Y'all tossing that aound like everyone knows what it is.

The "considered" amount of snowfall depends on your opinion, but I like to think of them like this:
SECS = Significant (4-8")
MECS = Major (8-16")
HECS = Historic (16-24")
BECS = Biblical (24+")

FOLKS happens when a model run produces lots of snow, usually 12+".

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8 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Okay I need to understand some terms here

correct me if I'm wrong

MECS   Major
SECS    Severe
HECS    Historical
BECS    Biblical

what is the 'considered' amount of snowfall for each?

More importantly what the flook is FOLKS? Y'all tossing that aound like everyone knows what it is.

For DC region 

SECS -- 5 to 10

MECS - 10 to 18

HECS 18 to 30

BECS 30 Plus

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So far the ICON is SECS, GGEM and UKMET are MECS across our area.  I expect the Euro to fall in line.  Last night's run might have been overdone but maybe it repeats...remember the euro does tend to be the most amplified in this range.  

Still far enough out that we need to wait for Eps no matter what the operational shows imho.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So far the ICON is SECS, GGEM and UKMET are MECS across our area.  I expect the Euro to fall in line.  Last night's run might have been overdone but maybe it repeats...remember the euro does tend to be the most amplified in this range.  

You forgot the GFS.

Man, fuck the GFS

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Still far enough out that we need to wait for Eps no matter what the operational shows imho.

Logically yes...but have you noticed this year whenever the op is not so good and we wait for the ensembles and take joy that they were better....the op has won!  Talking about when were inside 150 hours not the crazy unicorn range stuff.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Logically yes...but have you noticed this year whenever the op is not so good and we wait for the ensembles and take joy that they were better....the op has won!  Talking about when were inside 150 hours not the crazy unicorn range stuff.  

I take no joy in any of this. It’s an addiction I struggle with every day.

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